NFL Awards 2025: NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and More
It's ABOUT THAT TIME! The NFL season is upon us. Everybody, rejoice. Just in case you don't remember how it's done, I'll break down my entire 2025 futures portfolio across a few articles covering an array of topics.
First up are the awards, an always challenging set of markets in the minds of subjective voters. I did cover everything in my podcast here, but of course, I want to make sure everybody has something to reference on RotoWire.
For a lot of bettors, awards really hit home as the preferred NFL futures markets to get some action on. Without further ado, let's get ripping on the task at hand.
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NFL MVP
Arguably the most slanted award in all of pro sports. The NFL MVP is 99.999999% of the time designed for a QB. Only three non-QB's (all running backs) won the award since 2000 with Adrian Peterson being the last in 2012.
Not only is taking a signal caller a virtual necessity, but it typically goes to a player who is the one or two seed in the conference (2008 Peyton Manning was the last three seed or lower to win). Then of course, you need the statistical profile; a la the 4500+ yard passing yards with at least 38 tuddies. When you break it down, there's only a handful of players worth a bet, but the odds have a way of ruining it. Keep in mind, just because I put a player down, he is not necessarily the person I am officially picking, but a bet I am making because of a variety of factors like price and projection.
Make sure you reference RotoWire for your numbers. My team PUT ON for you, making sure all major books and the available prices are in one location. That makes finding all NFL futures and NFL player futures, and their latest prices, a breeze. Not taking advantage of that convenience would be silly.
Baker Mayfield for NFL MVP (+3500 - BetRivers) 0.5u
The caveat should come as me believing the price is too big on Baker currently, so it's worth a look. In reality, I don't have him as my official MVP of 2025, but I like the path for Tampa and his stats, so the number is a tad large.
Since his move to Tampa in 2023, no QB has more pass tuddies than Mayfield in the last two seasons (69, nice). The rebirth of the former 1.1 pick in 2018 has resulted in the Bucs being an NFC contender for the foreseeable future. It's a loaded offense, complete with weapons everywhere that will threaten pretty much any defense in the NFL.
Baker's 4,500-yard, 41 TD season last year was one of the best in the league. If he's able to cut the picks down from 16 to under 12, the MVP legitimacy is absolutely there. That, of course, assumes the Bucs are able to finish as the 1 or 2 seed in the wide-open NFC. Tampa certainly has some heavy hitters on the schedule, but the optimist will see it as an opportunity to gain ground and win tie breakers over teams like Philly, San Francisco, Detroit, and Buffalo. Coming off a 10-win season, we would reasonably have to see the Bucs win at least 12 games to have a decent shot at getting a top-two seed. But for the stats he may put up, there are certainly worse bets you could make.
Bo Nix (+6000 - FanDuel) 0.5u
Another sprinkle I like for 2025 is Bo Nix. Okay, I understand it may sound a little cray at first glance, but it's not so much when you look further into it.
The upstart Denver Broncos turned it around big time in 2024, winning 10 games and securing a playoff berth. Nix had a phenomenal rookie campaign, throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 TD/12 INT, and running in another four scores. We know Sean Payton elevated Drew Brees from a good QB out of San Diego to a Hall of Famer in NOLA. Not saying Nix is the next Brees, but Payton can definitely develop this dude into a star.
Winning this award would almost certainly require Denver to be a top-two seed, which of course means winning the AFC West and taking down KC. The Broncos gave KC hell in the second game last year, only losing on a fluke blocked Field Goal. The schedule has some challenges this year, but it wouldn't be outrageous to see the Broncos win 13 games, especially with a projected top-five defense.
Nix has some new weapons as well, adding TE Evan Engram and rookie RB RJ Harvey. A natural sophomore progression could see him make a jump closer to about 4,300-4,400 pass yards, 35 TD, and maybe another 4-8 scores on the ground.
Plus, the schedule is set up for them to rip off six or seven wins in the first eight weeks (vs. Tennessee, @ Indy, @ LAC, vs. Cincy, @ Philly, vs. NYJ overseas, vs. NYG, vs. Dallas), which would significantly slash this price.
Listen, it's a long shot for a reason, but I believe Nix and Denver's 2024 was no fluke, but rather a stage-setter for a bigger 2025.
Offensive Player of the Year
OPOY is absolutely one of the most fun awards to bet, but it ain't easy. It's open season with WRs, RBs, and even QBs having a realistic shot to win this one.
Brian Thomas Jr. (+4000 - Bet Rivers)
I do love me some Brian Thomas Jr. It was an outstanding rookie season for him, compiling a vicious 87/1,282/10 line. 40/1 on a player of this caliber is a little wild to me. I understand the Jags are probably destined for another subpar season, but this is a dude capable of putting up one of the top seasons of any offensive non-QB.
Liam Coen came over from Tampa Bay, where he designed one of the top offenses last year. Coen gets creative with every position on the field, so there should be at least some excitement with Jacksonville's offense. I would also think he helps Trevor Lawrence improve, which leads to more opportunities for BTJ.
There are only a few dominant corners BTJ would see this year, so chances are he can be eating almost every week. Plus, I would think his 133 targets ramp up closer to about 160 this season. Given the resumes of the past WR winners, Thomas would likely need to be somewhere in the vicinity of a 125/1600/12 line to have a real shot. Based on the talent and reinforcements coming in, I don't put it past him. Regardless, this price should be closer to 20/1-25/1.
Ja'Marr Chase (+1000 - Bet Rivers)
Surprise, surprise. Ja'Marr Chase has certainly been submitting his bid as the NFL's top receiver over the past couple of years. The Bengals' superstar has yet to win this award, and in my opinion, it's really a bet on health.
There are a couple of things to factor in here. Aside from the obvious talent and ability to take over a game against any corner or coverage, you have what's expected to be among the league leader in targets. In addition to the likely massive volume, the Bengals' defense is going to be a sieve again this year. That obviously means we could be seeing Cincy play in a lot of shootouts with a lot of passing.
Chase put up a ridiculous 127/1708/17 line last year. Quite frankly, if he plays 17 games, chances are he's at least somewhat close to repeating that line. If that happens, there won't be too many guys with a better chance of getting this award. It makes 10/1 a bargain for sure.
Other players to consider or monitor: Christian McCaffrey (+2000 FanDuel), Bijan Robinson (+1600 FanDuel)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Cam Ward (+350 - Fan Duel)
The disrespect to not have Cam Ward as the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds on favorite does not sit well with me. I understand Ashton Jeanty is a stud who will have a lot of volume in Las Vegas. There's a ton of hype on him as well after an all-time season at Boise State.
However, let's be realistic, it's unlikely Jeanty will be able to have more of a team impact than Cam Ward. The +350 number isn't disrespectful against Jeanty's +300, but knowing this has become more of a QB award makes me wonder.
I'm not a huge college football guy, but last year I watched every one of Miami's games because of Cam. I see a lot of Michael Penix with him based on decision making, ability to make all of the throws accurately, poise, leadership, and the IT factor. I expect a lot from Cam.
Ward has some weapons in Tennessee, along with what may be a decent Titans defense. The statistical profile for a rookie QB doesn't even have to be off the charts. Something like 3,500 yard pass yards, 22 TDs, and 10 picks may be good enough. Not to mention, there's a lot of winnable games on the schedule.
Plus Ward is actually the only rookie QB starter right now in the NFL. I do like some of the other guys, like Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson, but I believe Tennessee has a resurgence coming this year. If Ward has a solid statistical profile, and the Titans win 9 games (which I believe is realistic), it's tough imagining the award goes home with anybody else.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Abdul Carter (+250 - BetMGM)
Abdul Carter is a game-wrecker in every sense of the word. He's reminiscent of Micah Parsons in that Penn State uniform. The odds are shot on this, so it makes you want to look elsewhere down the board for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but there's a reason Carter is a large favorite.
This could ultimately be a market I take a look at throughout the year to hunt for value and a narrative as the season progresses. For now, I don't know if there's another direction to truly consider. We're probably looking at a 10-sack campaign for the rook.
It also doesn't hurt that he's got the New York market working in his favor.
Keep in mind that only three non-front-seven players have won this award since 1999; Marcus Peters (2015), Marshon Lattimore (2017), Sauce Gardner (2022).
Defensive Player of the Year
Like, DROY, Defensive Player of the Year odds usually favor pass rushers. Only two defensive backs have won since 2011 (2024 Patrick Surtain II and 2019 Stephon Gilmore). Outside of 2023, when Myles Garrett got gift-wrapped the award with 14 sacks because of a hot start to the season, the winner usually has to rack up about 16 sacks at a minimum with a potential to hit 18. 2017 and 2020 Aaron Donald is an exception to that rule for obvious reasons. Since 2014, only four winners had fewer than 16 sacks and won (not including Surtain or Gilmore). Being on a playoff team has been impactful in deciding the winner. Nine straight and 14 of the last 15 winners made the postseason.
T.J. Watt (+1000 - Hard Rock)
Somehow, the great TJ Watt has only won this award once. He finished twice two times, and third in 2019. It was a down 2024 year for him with only 11.5 sacks, but I think he's ready for a bounce back campaign.
Honestly, I feel like it's hard to go wrong with this guy as he is almost always going to be in the mix along with Myles Garrett. In fact, it's almost not an awful strategy to bet a couple units on both since it's likely one of them will be a serious frontrunner towards the end of the season.
Watt impacts the game with more than just sacks. He racks up a ton of TFLs, QB pressures, QB hits, and plays the run. Plus he's got the Hall of Fame resume that voters love to gravitate towards. I believe he still has at least one or two years of elite football left in him, as well as one more DPOY award. 10/1 is a good number for one of the best pass rushers of all time.
Derek Stingley (+8000 - Caesars) 0.25u
Just in case lightning strikes twice with a DB winning the award again, I want to take a small sprinkle on one. Derek Stingley has emerged as one of the league's top corners. He's a huge reason why the vicious Houston defense can wreak havoc on opposing offenses.
Unless he racked up a ton of picks, which is usually tough for star CBs to do with the ball going away from them so much, it would probably require a down year across the board for most of the top pass rushers. Additionally, Stingley already has a serious candidate on his team in Will Anderson, but it's not impossible for this DB to have a similar type of year Surtain used to solidify his bid.
All I'm saying is if a DB wins again, Stingley is my pick.
Other players to consider: Will Anderson (+1600 - FD)
Coach of the Year
I almost threw my TV out the window into oncoming traffic last year when Dan Campbell didn't win. I'm still not over it. Not saying Kevin O'Connell wasn't deserving, but I'll still say Campbell deserved it more. The criteria seriously needs to be revised, but as it stands now the main narrative is derived off of win total improvement from the prior year.
Brian Callahan (+2700 - FanDuel)
The same reason I bet Cam Ward for OROY is pretty much the same reason I like Brian Callahan for COY. Improvement from the prior year as the main factor provides a lot of opportunity for the Titans.
A three-win team last year, it wouldn't be unbelievable to see the Titans win nine games and sneak in the playoffs. If that were to happen, which I think is realistic, there wouldn't be too many more deserving candidates. It's likely that 10 wins will be needed for the playoffs in the AFC, but Tennessee has a lot of winnable games on the schedule. If Cam Ward does what I think he can/will do, they can definitely get there.
Other Candidates to consider: Sean Payton (+2000 - FanDuel)
Comeback Player of the Year
This award is a mess with no real direction. It will be somebody I may take a look at during the year.
