DraftKings NFL Week 10: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 10 slate includes 10 games and will feature two of the league's breakout performers in Rico Dowdle and Jaxon Smith-Njigba among the chalk at their respective positions. Half of the matchups look appealing for game stacks, but I wouldn't say that one stands out above the rest, which makes it a great slate for tournaments with more viable options than usual. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Rico Dowdle vs. NO ($6,300)

Dowdle has been sensational in three starts, with rushing-yard totals of 206, 183 and 130. He's had at least 23 carries in each, and if he's going to see that type of volume against the lowly Saints, it's a smash spot. He also has a touchdown in every start and he's a betting favorite to score again Sunday. Unless we get some significant news, I think Dowdle ends up the most popular RB in all formats, and that certainly makes sense given the matchup and how good he's been. 

• WR Jauan Jennings vs. LAR ($4,600)

I'm going to highlight four WRs here because projection wise, there isn't one who stands above the rest in the midrange. I included Jennings here last week and he responded with four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, it all came in the first half and then the 49ers didn't need to pass anymore because they had a big lead and were too successful running the ball. That isn't likely to be the case Sunday as they're home underdogs in what should be a high-scoring matchup against the Rams. Tez Johnson ($4,500) projects similarly well. I'll go into more detail about him and that game in the "Passing-Game Stacks" section below. If you have more salary, Zay Flowers ($5,900) and Stefon Diggs ($5,800) are strong options. Flowers remains underpriced, though it's a bit concerning he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. Diggs has a plus matchup and could see a bump in target share with the news that Kayshon Boutte has been ruled out. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen at MIA ($7,000)

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QB Lamar Jackson at MIN ($6,800)

QB Jaxson Dart at CHI ($5,700)

QB Mac Jones vs. LAR ($5,000)

QB J.J. McCarthy vs. BAL ($4,900)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. LAR ($9,000)

RB James Cook at MIA ($7,500)

RB De'Von Achane vs BUF ($7,400)

RB Kyren Williams at SF ($6,600)

RB Rico Dowdle vs. NO ($6,300)

WR Puka Nacua at SF ($8,700)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI ($8,600)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at WAS ($8,400)

WR Emeka Egbuka vs. NE ($7,000)

WR Zay Flowers at MIN ($5,900)

WR Stefon Diggs at TB ($5,800)

WR Deebo Samuel vs. DET ($5,600)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. LAR ($4,600)

WR Tez Johnson vs. NE ($4,500)

TE Trey McBride at SEA ($6,000)

TE George Kittle vs. LAR ($4,500)

TE Sam LaPorta at WAS ($4,400)

TE Cade Otton vs. NE ($3,900)

TE Hunter Henry vs. TB ($3,500)

D/ST Cleveland Browns at NYJ ($2,900)

D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. NE ($2,700)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars at HOU ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

New England Patriots (23) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25.5)

Patriots

A matchup against Tampa Bay's pass funnel defense is almost always a good starting point for a game stack. The Bucs rank third against the run and 20th against the pass. New England hasn't been able establish their running game all season and seems likely to be without Rhamondre Stevenson again, so I wouldn't expect much success on the road against Vita Vea and Co. Instead it looks like a great spot for Drake Maye ($6,400), who's been so impressive through half the season that he's still firmly in the MVP conversation. From a fantasy perspective, he's put up at least 21 DraftKings points in six of nine game as his floor/ceiling combo is boosted by his ability to run. Stefon Diggs ($5,800) and Hunter Henry ($3,500) are Maye's best projected pass-catchers. Henry's salary has fallen to its lowest point of the season, and he stands out as one of the better values at TE. Diggs has a touchdown catch in back-to-back games and could be in for a bump in target share if Kayshon Boutte ($5,000) can't overcome a hamstring injury that's kept him out of practice this week. Assuming Boutte is out, DeMario Douglas ($4,000) would also be a candidate for an increased role, and he's been good in recent weeks. 

Buccaneers 

New England's defense still hasn't allowed a 50-yard rusher this season. That's quite the stat and it puts them squarely in the category of pass funnel as they've faced the league's fifth-highest pass rate. For those reasons I'll be fading Rachaad White ($6,400) and instead targeting Baker Mayfield ($6,200), who, like Maye, also has his name in the MVP convo. It appears that Chris Godwin will be ruled out alongside Mike Evans, meaning standout rookie Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) will serve as Mayfield's clear No. 1. Egbuka's matchup looks tough on paper against star CB Christian Gonzalez but we can't ignore that Drake London caught three TDs in the same spot a week ago. Promising seventh-round rookie Tez Johnson ($4,500) will serve as the No. 2. He has at least four catches in three of the last four games and two TDs in his last three. Cade Otton ($3,900) has been a reliable security blanket, with at least four catches and 40+ yards in four consecutive games. Similar to Henry, he projects among the top values at TE and rightfully so. 

• Favorite Patriots Stack: QB Maye + WR Diggs + TE Otton
• Favorite Patriots Stack 2: QB Maye + WR Johnson or WR Egbuka + TE Henry
• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Johnson and/or WR Egbuka + TE Henry
• Favorite Bucs Stack 2: QB Mayfield + WR Diggs + TE Otton +/- WR Johnson

New York Giants (21) at Chicago Bears (25.5)

Giants

In their first game without Cam Skattebo, New York threw at a 70 percent clip and Jaxson Dart ($5,700) scored 27 DraftKings points, including a rushing touchdown for the fourth consecutive week. A season-high 43 percent no-huddle rate was also encouraging. Their games have produced the third-most combined plays, helped by a bad defense; it's a good recipe for fantasy points. Wan'Dale Robinson ($5,300) has at least six catches in three of the last four games and double-digit targets in two of the last three as Dart's de facto No. 1 option in the absence of Malik Nabers. Theo Johnson ($3,800) has five TDs in the last six games, and he'd offer leverage in GPPs a week after being chalky. Rostering Tyrone Tracy ($5,800) cost me a lot of money last week and I won't be doing it again this week after seeing how much Devin Singletary was involved. 

Bears

Chicago has a great matchup against one the league's worst defenses and none of their players will be popular. Caleb Williams ($6,000) is coming off a career-high 38.7 DraftKings points after he threw for three TDs, caught another and ran for 53 yards in that wild win over the Bengals. D'Andre Swift ($6,100) and Kyle Monangai ($5,600) are both healthy, making it difficult to roster either despite the prime matchup. Swift has more upside given his pass-catching role. It was very surprising to see Rome Odunze ($6,000) without a target last week and that will keep his ownership at next to nothing for this one. Meanwhile DJ Moore ($5,500) just had his best game of the season after throwing a touchdown, rushing for another and adding four catches for 72 yards. Colston Loveland ($4,100) finally had his breakout too, catching six balls for 118 yards and two scores. He'll be an afterthought due a price increase and Cole Kmet's expected return. 

• Favorite Giants Stack: QB Dart + WR Robinson +/- WR Moore
• Favorite Bears Stack: QB Williams + WR Moore or WR Odunze

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + RB De'Von Achane +/- TE Dalton Kincaid

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Puka Nacua + WR Jauan Jennings or TE George Kittle

QB Jared Goff + WR Deebo Samuel + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or TE Sam LaPorta

QB Sam Darnold + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + TE Trey McBride or WR Marvin Harrison

QB Marcus Mariota + WR Deebo Samuel + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown or TE Sam LaPorta

QB Marcus Mariota + RB Jahmyr Gibbs + WR Deebo Samuel

QB Mac Jones + RB Kyren Williams or WR Puka Nacua + WR Jauan Jennings or TE George Kittle

QB J.J. McCarthy + WR Justin Jefferson or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Jacoby Brissett + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + TE Trey McBride

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. LAR ($9,000)

It's become increasingly clear through nine games that McCaffrey is fully back to his best. He's been incredibly consistent, scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in eight of nine games while flashing a big ceiling. He's coming off 33 touches and 37 fantasy points against the Giants, and he had 31 touches and 42 fantasy points three weeks ago. That's some serious usage, and we should expect it to continue as long as the 49ers are shorthanded on offense. He faces a tougher rushing matchup against the Rams but caught eight passes for 82 yards and a TD when the two teams met in Week 5. 

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI ($8,600)

The hottest WR in the league, Smith-Njigba has been on a tear with four consecutive eight-catch 100-yard games. Sam Darnold is playing at an elite level and the Seahawks have a favorable matchup at home against the Cardinals. Smith-Njigba projects better than any WR on the slate and will be among the most popular in all formats. 

Honorable Mentions: RB De'Von Achane ($7,400); RB James Cook ($7,500)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. BAL ($7,900)

Fading Jefferson here is twofold: first, I have doubts about his ceiling potential with J.J. McCarthy under center. The rookie QB has made three starts and has yet to top 160 passing yards. Second, I prefer the WRs priced above and below Jefferson. I just mentioned above that Smith-Njigba has been incredible while we know what Nacua and St. Brown are capable of. But I'd also rather save the $900 and go down to Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) in a plus matchup with shootout potential. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Hunter Henry at TB ($3,500)
• TE Cade Otton vs. NE ($3,900)

Two cheap TEs in similar spots, up against each other in a matchup with shootout potential. I think both teams will struggle to run the ball and both teams are dealing with injuries at WR, two more factors that favor the TEs. They both have very good quarterbacks too. Each projects well enough to be rostered in any format. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Jaxson Dart at CHI ($5,700)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. DET ($5,300)

QB Mac Jones vs. LAR ($5,000)

QB J.J. McCarthy vs. BAL ($4,900)

QB Jacoby Brissett at SEA ($4,600)

WR Jakobi Meyers at HOU ($4,800)

WR Parker Washington at HOU ($4,700)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. LAR ($4,600)

WR Tez Johnson vs. NE ($4,500)

WR DeMario Douglas at TB ($4,000)

WR Dyami Brown at HOU ($3,700)

TE Cade Otton vs. NE ($3,900)

TE Hunter Henry vs. TB ($3,500)

TE David Njoku at NYJ ($3,200), if Harold Fannin is out

Injuries to Monitor 

• TE Harold Fannin at NYJ

Fannin returned to practice Friday and is listed questionable with a hamstring injury. If he's ruled out, David Njoku ($3,200) would project among the better values at TE given how far his salary has fallen and the increased target share he'd be in for. 

Weather

• Possible rain/snow in Chicago, sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. It's a combination that would probably impact the passing game and lower the ceilings on Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart. It's too early to know that though, so I'll be checking the forecast prior to kickoff.