DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Open Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

The Open Championship

Purse: $17M
Winner's Share: $3.1M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the Winner
Location: Troon, Ayrshire, Scotland
Course: Royal Troon Golf Club
Yardage: 7,385
Par: 71
2023 champion: Brian Harman (Royal Liverpool)

Tournament Preview

When we last saw Royal Troon in 2016, Henrik Stenson was shooting a Sunday 63 to set an all-time Open scoring record of 20-under. Phil Mickelson valiantly tried to keep up, but a 65 left him three strokes shy.

Sure sounds like a birdie-fest at one of those obsolete Open rota courses that time -- and  golf -- is passing by.

Don't think that for a minute.

Troon was an absolute beast all week, the fourth hardest course on the PGA Tour that season with a combined 300 double-bogeys, triples or worse. The third-place finisher, J.B. Holmes, wasn't in the same ZIP code as Stenson and Mickelson, a whopping 14 shots out of first place. Eighteen shots back still got you a top-10. The cut was 4-over.

In hindsight, Stenson and Mickelson shot perhaps two of the greatest rounds not only in Open history but major championship history, as the wind off the Firth of Clyde was gusting up to 25 mph. How unfortunate for Mickelson that Stenson did it in the same pairing on the same day. 

It is under that backdrop that the 152nd Open will be played this week at Troon, now some 200 yards longer but with the same bite it's always had. As Gary Player once said, Troon's back nine is "the most difficult in the world when the wind is blowing."

The front nine is far shorter and easier. The first six holes are the scoring holes with the prevailing wind at the players' backs. After that, Troon becomes a survival test in which everyone will try to hang on for dear life. The back nine is played into the prevailing wind.

Of the 11 par-4s, the five shortest are on the front, the six longest are on the back. In 2015-16, No. 11, which played at 483 yards then but will be 498 now, was hardest hole on the entire PGA Tour all season, more than a half-shot over par. The hole is called "The Railway" for the adjacent railroad tracks, and golfers will try their best not to get run over. Many failed in 2016. There were more than 60 doubles, triples or worse on that hole alone. Jack Nicklaus famously shot a 10 there in 1962. The next two hardest holes at Troon in 2016 were, in order, 15 and 10, two other long, brutal par-4s.

Troon features the shortest and longest holes in the Open rota. First up will be the 623-yard sixth, known as "Turnberry." Two holes later, it's the famed "Postage Stamp," a mere 123 yards but with a green surrounded by no less than five bunkers. It was there in the first round in 1973 that 71-year-old Gene Sarazen pulled a 5-iron out of his bag and never needed putter after making a hole-in-one.

Okay, so what is Troon all about? Well, the fairways are wide open, but driving accuracy is still important, with plenty of trouble lurking -- dozens of fairway pot bunkers, thick rough and even gorse. (We love these cool U.K. golf words we see only once a year.) Most holes feature severe slopes around the greens, sending good looking approach shots trundling off the large bentgrass/fescue greens. So play around the greens, as is almost always the case at Opens, will be paramount. Golfers will also have the option to putt from long distances, so lag putting and three-putt avoidance will go a long way toward determining the champion.

Troon is so fascinating and complex that we are 10 paragraphs into the story and we haven't touched on the top storylines in the field, which could exceed 156 after three non-exempt players from the Scottish Open are added. 

• Scottie Scheffler is nearing the end of a historically great season. But how historic can it really be with only one major title? (Still pretty historic.) Two would make it much more rarified. The thing is, Scheffler has never finished better than T8 at the Open, which happened in his 2021 debut. He's had top-25s the past two years.
• Rory McIlroy returned to golf last week at the Scottish Open for the first time since his U.S. Open meltdown. His golf was same as always. But maybe we won't know whether the ghosts are fully gone until McIlroy is in contention on the back nine on Sunday at another major. At the Open, that's almost always the case for him. He tied for sixth last year and for fifth at Troon in 2016.
• Xander Schauffele finally broke through for his first major title at the PGA Championship. He's been the second-best player on the PGA Tour all season. What if it were Schauffele who won a second major in 2024? Would that make his season better than Scheffler's? No, but two majors in one year is pretty dang good. It hasn't been done since Brooks Koepka in 2018.
• Bryson DeChambeau has reinvented himself into a well-liked, even beloved social media darling. He's also had the best season in the majors of anyone: T6 at the Masters, runner-up to Schauffele at the PGA and first at the U.S. Open, where he was responsible for McIlroy's soul-crushing heartache.

About 25 percent of the field from 2016 is back this year, including Stenson and Mickelson. Tiger Woods did not play there, or in any other major across 2016 and '17, but will play this year.

For a breakdown of the entire field, check out our Open Championship Power Rankings!

So much will be dependent on the weather. There already has been a lot of rain at Troon leading up to the Open. That means taller and thicker rough. More wet and windy conditions are forecast. Temperatures will top out in the low 60s, showers could happen at any time every day and the wind will be blowing double digits with gusts to 20 mph all week.

That could make the back nine every bit as brutal as Player stated.

Troon factoids: This will be the 10th Open at Troon. One of the great stunners in major championship history took place in the 2004 Open there. Unheralded Todd Hamilton defeated Ernie Els in a four-hole aggregate playoff. Mickelson finished third. The five previous Troon winners also were American: Justin Leonard (1997), Mark Calcavecchia (1989), Tom Watson (1982), Tom Weiskopf (1973) and Arnold Palmer (1962). ... Colin Montgomerie's father was once Troon's club secretary. ... The club announced just weeks before the 2016 Open that it would begin admitting women members. It was either that or be scrubbed from the Open rota. 

Key Stats to Winning at Royal Troon

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• 3-Putt Avoidance outside 25 Feet
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2023 - Brian Harman (Royal Liverpool)
2022 - Cameron Smith (St. Andrews)
2021 - Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George's)
2020 - None
2019 - Shane Lowry (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson (St. Andrews)
2014 - Rory McIlroy (Royal Liverpool)

Champion's Profile

Long off the tee will surely help at Troon, but only if golfers hit it straight. There is simply too much trouble lurking. Stenson ranked 11th in driving distance (at 297 yards) but was also fifth in fairways hit at more than 73 percent. He hit his trusty 3-wood a ton in a ball-striking display for the ages. (Is there any one golfer more associated with one club than Stenson with his 3-wood?)

He also ranked first in greens in regulation at more than 77 percent, seventh in scrambling and second in putts per GIR. Getting on the green in regulation is harder at Troon than most courses because of wind combined with the sloped greens. That will bring scrambling into play in a huge way.

Stenson had seven bogeys on the week but no doubles. Likewise, Mickelson had no doubles. Holmes, who finished third 11 strokes behind Mickelson, had three doubles.

In 2004, Hamilton, Els and Mickelson all excelled in scrambling and play around the greens. Really, they were sound in all areas. Hamilton and Els tied after regulation at 10-under; Mickelson was a stroke back.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000+

Bryson DeChambeau - $11,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
For the first time in a while, the first name appearing here does not belong to Scheffler. His price is $1,300 more than No. 2 DeChambeau. If there were one tournament all year to say Scheffler might be more susceptible, this would be it (that sentence may come back to bite us). As for DeChambeau, he does not have a great Open history -- his best is the same as Scheffler's, a T8 -- but he has shown so much in just three major tournaments this year that he's impossible to ignore.

Rory McIlroy - $11,400 (+750)
The first question about McIlroy was answered last week: His golf game is gonna be okay. He showed enough at the Scottish Open that the scar tissue from the U.S. Open is healing. The second question is still unanswered and far more complex: How will McIlroy fare the next time he is in the most pressured-filled of moments in a major? For McIlroy, this is the best major to find that out.

Ludvig Aberg - $10,100 (+1400)
Long is good at Troon, long and straight is exponentially better. Aberg is on the short list of longest, straightest drivers in the world. Yes, it's his first Open, probably the tournament he grew up wanting to win most. But he did kinda okay in his first Ryder Cup and first Masters (sarcasm!). Playing back-to-back weeks on his torn left meniscus is a concern, but he did that last month and tied for 12th at U.S. Open.

$9,000-$9,900

Collin Morikawa - $9,900 (+1400)
Morikawa has missed the cut at the past two Opens. Not good! But he is playing far better now, near his apex, and Troon puts a premium on accuracy off the tee, even at the expense of distance. Morikawa leads the Tour in fairways hit. He finished top-5 at both the Masters and PGA Championship earlier this year before plummeting to a T14 at the U.S. Open (more sarcasm!).

Tyrrell Hatton - $9,500 (+2500)
The DK price and sportsbook odds show that Hatton should not be ignored this week. So does his record in Opens and majors overall. First, he's made the cut in 11 straight majors, one of the longest active streaks. In his Open career, he's finished T5, T6, T11 and, last year, T20. That T5 came at Troon in 2016. Hatton also tied for 10th at the Masters in April.

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,300 (+2200)
Fleetwood has been playing pretty well for months and now is at his happy place: Europe. And, more specifically, the Open. He has finished in the top-12 in four of the past five, including last year's T10 and 2022's T4. Fleetwood finished top-5 at the Masters in April and top-20 at the U.S. Open (he just missed a top-25 at the PGA). He has a great touch around the greens, which is a big part of why he excels at the Open.

$8,000-$8,900

Hideki Matsuyama - $8,500 (+4500)
Troon is a haven for ball strikers and Matsuyama is a very good one again now that his back/neck issues have abated. After winning at Riviera, he tied for sixth at the U.S. Open. Matsuyama has played the Open well through the years, including a tie for 13th last year. He leads the Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, and that will count more this week than his often bad putting (his 3-putt avoidance is better than his overall putting, right around the Tour average).

Shane Lowry - $8,200 (+4000)
Lowry has done well at the Open since his momentous win at Royal Portrush in 2019 with top-25s in the next two editions (and an MC last year). He is having a great statistical year on the PGA Tour, ranking top-10 in both driving accuracy(!) and SG: Approach. This hasn't been his best short-game season, but we think he will be more comfortable this week.

$7,000-$7,900

Robert MacIntyre - $7,700 (+3500)
Before we saw MacIntyre come so close at last year's Scottish Open, before we saw him win the Canadian Open last month, he had been playing consistently well in majors for years. He's made the cut in 12 of 14 overall and he's been perfect in four Opens, two of which were top-10s.

Brian Harman - $7,600 (+6000)
Harman used to be terrible at the Open. He missed the cut in four of his first five. Now, he arrives as the Champion Golfer of the Year. His last three finishes: T19-T6-1. There will be more pressure and focus on Harman this year as the defending champion, but he's 37, not 23, and should be able to handle it. Ranking top-30 on Tour in both driving accuracy and SG: Putting should help.

$6,000-$6,900

Louis Oosthuizen - $6,800 (+9000)
Oosthuizen has largely been out of sight, out of mind this year. He didn't play in any of the first three majors. He hasn't won a LIV tournament. So he quietly had crept up to fifth in the LIV standings. He has had two runners-up. The 2009 Open Champion tied for 23rd at the Open last year and, after a missed cut in 2022, was T3 in 2021. Oosthuizen's best days are behind him, but he's also priced at $6,800.

Dean Burmester - $6,700 (+12000)
Burmester doesn't have a on of major experience but he's done well with what little he's had. When he last played the Open in 2022, he tied for 11th. He tied for 12th at the PGA in May, then made the cut at the U.S. Open. Burmester is among the better players on LIV this year. He ranked fourth in the standings and won a tournament in Miami.

Jordan Smith - $6,500 (+30000)
The Englishman plays on the DP World Tour, but he's also held his own against PGA Tour pros in majors. He tied for 20th at last year's U.S. Open and for 39th in May at the PGA. Smith made the cut in the past two Opens and shared runner-up at the BMW International a couple of weeks ago to get back inside the top-100 OWGR.

Tom McKibbin - $6,500 (+17000)
McKibbin is a player we will be hearing more about. He's a 21-year-old from Northern Ireland. He's already won on the DP World Tour (last year) and just missed again last month with a runner-up at the Italian Open. He's in the top-10 in the Race to Dubai standings, so there's a chance he could be playing on the PGA Tour next season. This will be McKibbin's first Open. His first major was last month and he tied for 41st at the U.S. Open.

$5,000-$5,900

Thriston Lawrence - $5,700 (+50000)
Down here in this price range, let's make the cut and hope for the best. The South African has done just that in both his Opens the past two years. Lawrence qualified for the PGA Championship in May but missed the cut. He is back inside the top-100 OWGR thanks to three runners-up this year on the DP World Tour.

Gordon Sargent - $5,700 (+50000)
Sargent won the Mark H. McCormack Medal in 2023 for being the No. 1-ranked amateur in the world. (At the time, Aberg was still an amateur.) He's a 21-year-old senior at Vanderbilt who won the NCAA Division I title as a freshman. Sargent was part of the winning U.S. Walker Cup team at St. Andrews in 2023 and won all of his matches.

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