Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: FedEx St. Jude Championship

FedEx St. Jude Championship 

TPC Southwind
Memphis, TN

The PGA Tour heads to Memphis to kick off the FedExCup Playoffs.

He finally did it. Cameron Young, so close for so many years, finally picked up his first PGA Tour win this past Sunday, and man was that a win. Young left nothing to chance on the weekend, getting enough separation that only a Van de Velde-like collapse would prevent a win. He's always had the talent, but for some reason, he couldn't close when needed. Now that he's over that hurdle, perhaps we'll see him take off like we all expected years ago.

Speaking of Young, he's now in the mix for a Ryder Cup spot, his play over the next couple weeks should determine if he's on the team this year, but he's not alone. There will be a handful of golfers not only trying to move up the FedEx standings, but also up the Ryder Cup standings. As I mentioned this past week though, just because somebody wants something more than another, doesn't mean it will be reflected in the results. Just look at Keegan Bradley this past week for evidence of that.

As we look ahead over the next three weeks, the main focus for me will be how Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy close the season. Scheffler started slow, but has been on fire the past few months, while McIlroy was on fire to start the season, then hit a lull after his Masters win, but has since found some form. He's not all the way back however and that will likely be the difference in who win the FedEx. At this point, it will take an enormous effort from any of the top-70 to beat Scheffler over a three-week span.

As for this week, we're at the TPC Southwind for the fourth consecutive year, so we've got some history at our disposal. The aforementioned Rory McIlroy is not in the field however, so it's the top-69 battling it out. The bottom half of the field will be looking to sneak into the top-50 for next week's event.                             

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LAST YEAR

Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 70 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+280) 

With McIlroy absent this week, there's no one in the same area code as Scheffler when it comes to the odds. That makes sense though, it's a small field and it's not a signature event, so we're not really talking about the best golfers in the world necessarily, just the ones that are full-time on the PGA Tour and have managed to earn enough points this season. Scheffler does not have a great track record at this event, just one top-10 in the past three years, but it simply doesn't matter. His "A" game will win, and his "B" game might be enough this week also.

Xander Schauffele (18-1)

Nobody can beat Scheffler if he's got his best game, but Schauffele is one guy that can challenge him if Scheffler is slightly off. Of course, we haven't seen the major-winning version of Schauffele this season, so to expect that to come out this week is a bit ambitious. Working in Schauffele's favor this week however is his runner-up showing at this event from this past year. Keep in mind that Scheffler was in the field that week and wasn't a factor.   

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Yeah, I'm going there. If Cameron Young can break through after years of coming close, why can't Fleetwood? Okay, it's quite the stretch to think a guy that has had trouble closing on the PGA Tour can pick up his first win against such a strong field, but hey, stranger things have happened…I think. To Fleetwood's credit, he didn't go into a shell after coming so close at the Travelers, and I think that's a good sign as we look ahead. He's played pretty well on this track also, with a T22 this past year and a T3 the year prior. He'll likely need to come from behind as to avoid the pressure of the lead, but I do think he'll get a win at some point.   

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THE NEXT TIER

Ludvig Aberg (30-1)

Nothing against Aberg, but it was a bit of a disappointment to see him listed as the sixth-favorite this week. It's the FedEx playoffs and it feels like the field is not all that strong. Perhaps it's because I was subconsciously comparing this field to a major, in which case we'd have a handful of bigger names to fill out the top of the odds chart, but it is what it is. No McIlroy means that a guy who hasn't done much of anything for the past four months is near the top of the odds list this week. In case you haven't figured it out yet, I'm not very high on Aberg this week. He hasn't had his game for the past four months and he finished T40 here in his only start at TPC Southwind.  

Viktor Hovland (35-1)

I'm going to mention this now and it'll hold true for the next three weeks. Since the fields are small during the playoffs, and there is a large group of players that are fairly similar just behind the favorites, the odds aren't going to be as spread out as they normally are. Okay, onto Hovland, he's here because of his track record at this event. Hovland has finished inside the top-20 each year since they moved to TPC Southwind three years ago. His best showing was a runner-up this past year.                          

Cameron Young (40-1)

The age-old question for first-time PGA Tour winners, what do you do after you get that first win? Plenty of golfers go into a shell and take a while to recover, while others stay hot and continue to play well. Chris Gotterup being the most recent example of a golfer that picked up his first win and continued his momentum through the next week. The reason I like Young this week is because his first win was always expected, it just took longer than we all thought it would. In other words, he shouldn't be surprised that he picked up a win and therefore, there shouldn't be a hangover, especially because of what's at stake for him over the next few weeks. 

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LONG SHOTS

Chris Gotterup (45-1)  

No, this isn't a new thing where I lead into the following pick with each pick, it just happened that Gotterup, Young and Fleetwood are all connected in a certain way. As for Gotterup, he picked up his first win in Scotland, backed it up with a great performance at the Open Championship and again played well when he returned to the states. Honestly, his biggest issue right now may be that he took a week off. Don't get me wrong, he needed to take a week off, but that can sometimes slow the momentum. With that said, if he comes out swinging like he has for most of the past month, he'll again be in the mix this week.        

Lucas Glover (90-1)      

It's pretty rare that a guy wins a FedEx event one year, then doesn't even qualify the next year, but that's what happened to Glover. Glover was on fire leading up to and into the playoffs in 2023 and that form carried him to a win at this event that year. Here's the thing though, he finished T3 at the St. Jude the year prior, so we can credit his win in 2023 to his form if we want, but we shouldn't discount his feel for this particular course either and that's why I've got him listed here. He likely won't find his late-season 2023 again, but he obviously likes this course, so if he gets hot, who knows? 

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Viktor Hovland – At this point in the season, the only way to figure out who is left on most teams is to look at the guys who have underperformed for most of the season. Hovland does have a win under his belt this season, but I think we can all say that we expected more from him. While he hasn't played his best for most of the season, he has shown flashes however and he's returning to a site where he's had a lot of success, so I'm going to assume he'll be a popular play this week.        

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Cameron Young – As mentioned earlier, there's always some risk taking a guy that's coming off his first win, especially when that guy has waited years for that win, but I think Young will have the right frame of mind this week and look to build off his first win. As far as ownership, I can see a scenario where most OAD players are shying away from him because of the hangover possibility, so if you decide to take him, you should gain some ground on the competition this week.                                                                                                                              

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Lucas Glover – Only those truly desperate will go this route, but hey, just look at the numbers. Two starts at this event, on this course and his worst showing was a T3. Yeah, it's a lot to expect Glover to perform like that again, but if you're down in the standings, you're looking for guys like this, with a lot of upside and not a lot of attention heading into the week.      

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau – I've been wrong about Finau a couple times over the past month, fading him at the Open Championship and then getting back on board at the 3M, but I think I've got him pegged now and unfortunately for Finau, that means another poor showing this week. This has been a tough year for Finau and unless he does something amazing this week, he'll be out of the playoffs come Sunday. He does have a pair of top-20s here over the past three years, but I don't think his game is where it needs to be right now to compete against the stronger fields.

My Pick: Tommy Fleetwood – As is often the case this time of year, I don't have a lot of high-end guys to choose from, so I make the best of what I have. Fleetwood's odds of winning aren't going to be great if only because of the added pressure of having so many close calls, but that hasn't and shouldn't prevent him from contending on a weekly basis. Will he win this week? Probably not, but a top-5 wouldn't shock me and at this point in the schedule, a top-5 would be a pretty good result in your OAD pool.  

Previous Results

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FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
Middle Range: Wyndham Clark ($9,000)
Lower Range: Chris Gotterup ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

No Cut This Week