Weekly PGA Preview: RBC Heritage

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC

The PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head, SC this week as the RBC Heritage gets underway. 

Well, it's that time of the year again, when we have to deal with our first major hangover. Just like this past year however, the week after the Masters we get a signature event, which softens the blow considerably. Last year I wasn't exactly thrilled stacking a signature event just after the Masters as I felt we needed time to come down from the first major of the year, but this year I think I'm ready to move on. Not because I didn't like how the Masters played out, but because there wasn't a lot of drama down the stretch once Scottie Scheffler found his game. Speaking of that, I mentioned earlier this year that Scheffler might be the closest we've seen to Tiger since Woods was roaming the course in full health, and last week's performance only solidified that notion. The reason more than any other is that Scheffler managed to stay at the top of the leaderboard even when he didn't have his best stuff. His putter wasn't great this past weekend and even his irons looked average for a stretch, heck he wasn't really hitting anything on the front-nine on Sunday and we somehow maintained his lead, but once he started zeroing in with his irons, it became a runaway. A true sign of greatness is when you can win without your best, and while he had his best late Sunday, he definitely didn't have it for most of the week.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Matt Fitzpatrick shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Jordan Spieth.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (4-1) 

It's crazy to think that Scheffler's odds entering this week are the same as this past week, but one thing we need to consider this week is the mental aspect. Scheffler is a machine, but he's also human and it's one thing to focus on a major while your wife is ready to give birth, but it's another thing to focus on a regular event, when you know your wife is only getting closer. There was a lot of talk about Scheffler leaving the Masters if his wife were ready to give birth and I'm not sure if it would have played out that way, but there's absolutely no doubt that he's leaving the RBC Heritage is that happens and with that in mind, there's no way I could lay money on him to win knowing that he might just leave at any moment.                                                      

Xander Schauffele (11-1)

Schauffele had a pretty good week at the Masters, but it was a very quiet week in that he was never a factor. It's a little easier to play well when there's no pressure, even if you are a few strokes off the lead and seemingly right there, unless you are in the thick of it, the pressure never really kicks in. Just look at Nicolai Hojgaard, who was in the lead for a minute and dropped like an anchor right after. The pressure is real. As for Schauffele, this is the type of tournament he can win, but his track record here is a bit scattered. He did however finish T4 this past year, so he should be considered.                                                                                             

Ludvig Aberg (12-1)

And so it begins. Not Aberg being among the favorites, but Rory McIlroy getting pushed out of the top-3. For years McIlroy has been among the top-3 at almost every tournament, but it looks like the odds makers are finally catching up to reality. Enough about that, how about Aberg? This guy is ready to make a big splash on the PGA Tour and it's happening right now. We all knew how good he was before this past week but watching him glide through Augusta was something unexpected. Aberg is going to be one of the few guys who can challenge Scheffler for years to come and he will start winning signature events soon, perhaps this week.                                         

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (18-1)

I'm a bit torn on Morikawa this week. I was really low on him entering the Masters this past week and with good reason, but he obviously made me look bad with that take. Morikawa appears to be back, but was this past week just him hyper-focusing for a major or is his game really back? I would think that anyone that can play well for 63 holes at a major has his game in the right place and as such, we should see better results the rest of the season. Now, the other factor to consider this week is the letdown from being in contention so long this past week. Will that have a negative effect? I think if Morikawa was still chasing his first major it might have a lingering effect, but since he already has two, he should be able to move on quickly.                                        

Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)

Most of my picks this week are based on current form and while Fitzpatrick has been okay lately, this pick is more based on last year's performance here. Fitzpatrick was in a big rut entering the Masters this past year, but he parlayed a T10 into a win at this event and I'm hoping he'll do something similar this year. He didn't post a top-10 this year at the Masters, but he did card a top-25 and his play up to the Masters this year was better than this past year, so essentially what I'm saying is, I'm expecting a return to Hilton Head to bring out the best in him this year again.  

Cameron Young (28-1)  

Young is my hunch play this week. With that said, there are some metrics that would back up this play, such as his T3 here in 2022 and the fact that he hasn't missed a cut since July. Oh, and he finished solo-2nd at the Valspar two starts back. Okay, there's plenty to like about Young this week, but more than anything else, I just think he's ready to win on the PGA Tour. 

LONG SHOTS

Shane Lowry (40-1)        

We saw a bit more of Lowry this past weekend than his overall play deserved, but that's what happens when you're making eagles on holes that don't generally see eagles. In the end, Lowry finished in 43rd-place, but that's not why he's listed here, it's his track record here that makes him intriguing. Lowry has finished T3 in two of his past five starts here and he has a T9 in that stretch as well. That's certainly enough to make me think he can win this week.

Cam Davis (60-1)             

Davis has a lot going for him this week, so much so that I'm surprised to see him at 60-1. Davis is coming off a solo-12th this past week at the Masters, which was preceded by a pair of top-25 in his three starts leading up to this past week. He's also got a solid track record here with two top-10s and a top-25 in his three starts at this event.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg - I get the feeling that most OAD players have been sitting back and waiting for the right time to deploy Aberg and this feels like the right time. The only concern is that he'll be a first-timer here, but look how that affected him or rather, didn't affect him this past week. This guy is on another level and we're about to witness how good he can be.                                                                                                                

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay - His play this year hasn't inspired much confidence, but his track record here is bound to catch a lot of attention from OAD players. Cantlay has yet to win here, but he's finished in the top-3 in four of his six starts. If ever a place could kickstart his season, it's Hilton Head.                                                                                                        

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Cam Davis - I wouldn't recommend going this low at a signature event, but if you're at the bottom of the standings and need to make a move, perhaps Davis is your guy this week. He's got some momentum from a good start this past week and he's played well on this course in all three starts.                                                                                                            

Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler - If ever there was a reason to wary of a guy, this is it. He could pack up and leave at any moment! I think the drama was played up a bit too much this past week as his wife is due at the end of the month, but in case you hadn't noticed, we're getting closer to the end of the month. Do I think he'll have to leave in the middle of the event? No, but there's a chance and getting nothing out of Scheffler in a OAD is too much to come back from. If you've saved him this long, you might as well wait for another major.                                                                  

This Week: Ludvig Aberg - It's time. As I mentioned above, I think most OAD players are waiting for the perfect time to use Aberg and for me, this looks like it. There are some players with solid track records here, but not so much that you can't pick against them. Aberg is ready to get his first big win on the PGA Tour and the week after a major is the perfect time to strike. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Ludvig Aberg ($11,500)
Middle Range: Cameron Young ($10,100)
Lower Range: Denny McCarthy ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

davPrevious Results