This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 286 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 285 with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
(C) Leon Edwards (20-3-0, 1NC) v. Kamaru Usman (20-2-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($7,300), Usman ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (+205), Usman (-245)
Odds to Finish: +125
This will be the third fight between these two. Usman won the first one via unanimous decision in December 2015. He was less than a minute from winning the second last August via another dominant unanimous decision before Edwards kicked him in the head, knocked him out and stole the title.
Nothing that happened in the second fight would lead you to believe Edwards has a chance of pulling another upset. Sure, he could win, but it seems highly likely for him to score a sudden knockout once again. Simply put, Leon accomplished nearly nothing in 24-plus minutes the last time the two fought. He got off second in virtually all the striking exchanges between the two and struggled with the physicality and wrestling game of Usman. Leon is going to have to find a way to remain upright if he is to have a chance here.
Usman attempted a dozen takedowns in the second fight, landing five of them. Those five successful tries led to 10:36 worth of control time and a 189-64 edge in total strikes landed. The defeat snapped a 19-fight winning streak for Kamaru dating back to December 2013. Included in that run were victories over names such as Colby Covington (twice), Jorge Masvidal (twice), Gilbert Burns, Sean Strickland, Tyron Woodley, Rafael dos Anjos, Demian Maia, etc. You get the point.
It's sounds shockingly simple because he lost, but Usman shouldn't change a thing. The defeat last time out, or at least how it happened, was a fluke. That's not to say Edwards can't stop Usman again, but Kamaru has no history of durability issues (that loss was the first via knockout in his pro career) and he appeared to be so far ahead of Leon in every other aspect that the pick here is not a difficult one.
I honestly can't think of a clear path to victory for Edwards. He's undoubtedly going to have the crowd behind him at the O2 Arena in his adopted home of England, but that's probably not going to be enough. He's two inches taller than Usman, but he's giving up two inches in reach. That was never more apparent than last time out when Leon, who always seems to be in control in the stand-up, was caught reaching for (and not finding) Usman over and over.
Edwards needs to start by stuffing Usman's takedown attempts and figuring the rest out along the way. 10-plus minutes of being controlled on the mat makes it virtually impossible to win a decision of any kind.
I have enough respect for Leon and his improvements over the years that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he puts forth a considerably more respectable effort than last time, when he walked out of Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City the UFC Welterweight Champion. I still don't think it will be enough, and Usman looks like a legitimate value play given the gap between the two last time out.
UFC 286 PICK: Usman
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Justin Gaethje (23-4-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gaethje ($7,400), Fiziev ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Gaethje (+180), Fiziev (-225)
Odds to Finish: -210
Five and a half years and ten fights into his UFC run, Gaethje has performed as well as could reasonably expected, and certainly better than I would have anticipated upon his July 2017 debut. He's obviously better than his 6-4 record would indicate. Yes, Gaethje has lost two of his last three, but those two setbacks came against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. It's worth noting Justin had a chance to win the UFC Lightweight Championship in each of those bouts. He was never beating Khabib, but he had Oliviera in all sorts of trouble early on before eventually being submitted just over three minutes in. Gaethje may never win a UFC title, but he's a top-tier lightweight regardless.
Fiziev finally gets his big break, and he's more than deserving. He has won six fights in a row -- three via knockout -- on the heels of his 86-second knockout loss to Magomed Mustafaev in his company debut in April 2019. Fiziev has earned a $50,000 post-fight bonus in each of his last five appearances, with three Performance of the Night bonuses and two Fight of the Night bonuses in there. Rafael has fought decent competition (Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano), but Gaethje is clearly on another level. We should learn very quickly just how high of a ceiling Fiziev has.
Barring something totally unforeseen, Fiziev seems likely to be more than willing to engage Gaethje in the stand-up battle he is constantly seeking. Gaethje refuses to wrestle. He doesn't have a single takedown in his UFC career despite having a background in the sport, and Fiziev only seems to go to the mat in an emergency. My main knock on Gaethje has long been that it's impossible to consistently defeat high-level competition if you are completely unwilling to focus on your defense. To Justin's credit, he has picked his spots better his last couple fights. He's still extremely aggressive, but not to the point of total recklessness.
A former kickboxer, Fiziev should have a technical edge on the feet. That said, it's extremely rare to find two elite fighters that absorb more strikes than they land, and that's what you have here. Gaethje lands 7.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.85. Fiziev lands 4.81 while absorbing 4.86. While this fight likely doesn't go the distance, it should be high-scoring if it gets anywhere close.
In fights like this, I always side on the more technical fighter, and that's Fiziev. That said, Gaethje is the ultimate live underdog every single time he competes, because he can absorb so much punishment. I could absolutely see a scenario in which Rafael dominates this fight in the early going, only to see Gaethje somehow hang around and eventually find a way to win. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's well within the range of outcomes, and that gives Gaethje real value at such a low DraftKings price tag. The only downside there is likely high ownership, given his mainstream popularity.
UFC 286 PICK: Fiziev
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1) v. Bryan Barberena (18-9-0)
DK Salaries: Nelson ($9,200), Barberena ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Nelson (-400), Barberena (+310)
Odds to Finish: -230
This was originally scheduled to be Nelson v. Daniel Rodriguez before the latter withdrew for undisclosed reasons. Never one to turn down a fight, Barberena was more than happy to step in.
Nelson returned from a two and a half year layoff last March and proceeded to dismantle Takashi Sato in one of the more lopsided unanimous decisions of the year. Nelson lost three of four prior to his hiatus, but it's important to note those three defeats came against Edwards, Burns and Santiago Ponzinibbio, back when Ponz was rolling through everyone in the division. Gunnar is an elite mat specialist and an easy top-15 welterweight in terms of pure talent, but he has had difficulty winning the "big" fight over the course of his UFC run.
Barberena had a three-fight winning streak snapped in a submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos last December. "Bam Bam" is tough as hell and a heck of a lot of fun to watch. He thrives in wild brawls, as was the case in his Fight of the Night victories over veterans Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. Yet, as durably as Bryan is, a fight against a technical wizard such as Nelson seems like a potential recipe for disaster.
As great a submission specialist as Gunnar is, he's not a big-time wrestler. He's averaging 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is a fine number, but far from elite. I'm certain he will attempt to get this fight to the mat given the overwhelming edge he will have over Barberena in that area. Bryan defends the takedown at a woeful 54 percent clip and would appear to be in serious danger of being controlled on the ground for long stretches of this fight.
One of Barberena's greatest attributes is his ability to drag his opposition into the wild brawls he is seeking. While that certainly worked against the likes of Lawler and Brown, it seems far less likely to be an effective strategy against Nelson -- an opponent that seems to work at his own slow, methodical pace every single time he steps into the Octagon.
Nelson has been knocked out once in his pro career, and that came against Ponzinibbio back in July of 2017. He has no past durability issues, and although I'm worried about his ability to string together victories against quality competition at age 35 (this coming July), he should have more than enough in the tank to defeat Barberena. This was not a difficult pick.
UFC 286 PICK: Nelson
Women's Flyweight
Jennifer Maia (20-9-1) v. Casey O'Neill (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Maia ($7,700), O'Neill ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Maia (+150), O'Neill (-185)
Odds to Finish: +200
Sporting a 3-4 record in her past seven bouts dating back to November 2019, Maia has done just fine in her career against lesser competition, but outside of a December 2012 win over Jessica Andrade in something called "Samurai FC", she's never been able to hang with better opponents. She snapped a brief two-fight losing streak in a unanimous decision win over Maryna Moroz last November, but the days of the 34-year-old Brazilian threatening the top of the 125-pound female division appear to have come and gone.
At age 25, O'Neill is theoretically one of the brightest prospects in what is by far the thinnest division in the company, but she, too, has never beaten anyone of note, and is coming off 13 months on the sidelines due to a torn ACL. O'Neill was perfect in her first four UFC bouts, with three stoppage wins (Shana Dobson, Lara Procopio, Antonina Shevchenko) and a split decision victory (Roxanne Modafferi) on her resume. The Modafferi fight was nowhere near as close as the "split decision" term would lead you to believe, so O'Neill hasn't really been challenged in any of her bouts with the company to date.
Maia's main issue is that she's a stand-up fighter with little power, and he doesn't defend particularly well on the feet (4.35 significant strikes absorbed per minute). She's a BJJ black belt, but also doesn't have a submission win dating back to 2014. In short, she has zero means of generating consistent offense and will be giving up a ton of athleticism to O'Neill.
Casey can get sucked into brawls at times. She's willing to eat a strike in order to land two of her own, which almost never works against better competition. It hasn't hurt her to date, partially because she can mix in a takedown (2.59 per 15 minutes) in order to keep her opposition off balance. Maia defends the takedown at a woeful 55 percent clip, so don't be surprised if O'Neill employs a mat-based strategy here.
While a torn ACL is a serious injury, athletes are recovering better and quicker from the injury than ever before. There's no reason to think O'Neill isn't fully healthy given the extended layoff, and assuming that's the case, she deserves to be favored here.
Maia has the advantage of having faced much better competition and is probably a somewhat live underdog, but the O'Neill we saw prior to the injury should win this fight.
UFC 286 PICK: O'Neill
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (18-6-1) v. Roman Dolidze (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Vettori ($9,100), Dolidze ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Vettori (-300), Doldize (+240)
Odds to Finish: +150
Now 29 years of age and nearly seven years deep into his UFC run, Vettori continues to show well against most everyone other than the very best the division has to offer. Marvin is 6-3 in his past nine bouts, with the three defeats coming at the hands of Israel Adesanya (twice) and Robert Whittaker, two of the three top middleweights in the world today. The fact Vettori wasn't competitive in the second Adesanya fight (for the title) or the Whittaker bout (his last) is highly concerning, but he's still a darn good fighter.
Dolidze has burst on to the scene, winning six of seven UFC bouts, including his last four, with the last three coming via knockout. Roman has defeated the likes of Jack Hermansson and Phil Hawes, so it's not as if he is making a name for himself by beating up nobodies. The soon-to-be 35-year-old spent the early portion of his career at both heavyweight (!!!) and light heavyweight before finally finding his footing at 185 pounds.
Roman has a great frame for the division. He's 6-foot-2 and will enter with both a two-inch height and reach edge over Vettori.
I would give the pure power edge to Dolidze, while Vettori is likely the more technical striker. It's worth noting Marvin has never been knocked out as a professional, and we've seen him take a beating on numerous occasions.
Both men can wrestle, if needed, with Vettori averaging 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and Dolidze up at 2.12. The number that stands out the most from a grappling perspective is Roman's woeful 33 percent takedown defense. He's been taken to the mat at least once in five of his last six fights, and the lone one he was able to remain upright was a 73-second win. Vettori would be wise to try to avoid Dolidze's power by limiting his space and trying to turn this into a wrestling match.
The body of past work makes Vettori a deserving favorite here, and I could see his constant pressure giving Dolidze fits, but the value in this fight is clearly on the other side. Dolidze has shown he can do a bit of everything in his brief time with the company, and while I wouldn't pick him over Vettori all things being equal, they aren't. The price tag is just too low -- both from a DK and betting perspective -- and the payoff is too high. I'll roll the dice on a potential upset.
UFC 286 PICK: Dolidze
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Jack Shore (16-1-0) v. Makwan Amirkhani (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Shore ($9,500), Amirkhani ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Shore (-550), Amirkhani (+380)
Odds to Finish: -270
UFC 286 PICK: Shore
Lightweight
Chris Duncan (9-1-0) v. Omar Morales (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($8,000), Morales ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (+100), Morales (-120)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC 286 PICK: Duncan
Lightweight
Sam Patterson (10-1-1) v. Yanal Ashmoz (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Patterson ($9,000), Ashmoz ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Patterson (-275), Ashmoz (+200)
Odds to Finish: -210
UFC 286 PICK: Patterson
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (9-0-0, 1NC) v. Jafel Filho (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Mokaev ($9,700), Filho ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-800), Filho (+550)
Odds to Finish: -180
UFC 286 PICK: Mokaev
Featherweight
Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) v. Gabriel Santos (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Murphy ($8,300), Santos ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (-160), Santos (+140)
Odds to Finish: +100
UFC 286 PICK: Santos
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (7-0-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($8,700), Todorovic ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (-210), Todorovic (+165)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 286 PICK: Duncan
Flyweight
Jake Hadley (9-1-0) v. Malcolm Gordon (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Hadley ($9,300), Gordon ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Hadley (-375), Gordon (+290)
Odds to Finish: -260
UFC 286 PICK: Hadley
Women's Flyweight
Joanne Wood (15-8-0) v. Luana Carolina (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($8,600), Carolina ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Wood (-185), Carolina (+160)
Odds to Finish: +240
UFC 286 PICK: Wood
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (12-4-0) v. L'udovit Klein (19-4-0)
DK Salaries: Herbert ($7,800), Klein ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Herbert (+135), Klein (-165)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC 286 PICK: Klein
Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller (4-1-0) v. Veronica Hardy (6-4-1)
DK Salaries: Miller ($9,400), Hardy ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Miller (-500), Hardy (+360)
Odds to Finish: -155
UFC 286 PICK: Miller
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 286 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
