This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Abu Dhabi DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Abu Dhabi takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 304 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0-0)
DK Salaries: Sandhagen ($7,000), Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Sandhagen (+240), Numagomedov (-300)
These two were due to fight in August 2023. Nurmagomedov withdrew a few weeks before and was replaced by Rob Font. Sandhagen went on to win via one of the most lopsided unanimous decisions you will ever see.
Undefeated in each of his first five UFC bouts and 17 overall as a professional, Nurmagomedov has been clamoring for a step up in competition, and now he's being throw into the deep end of the pool. His UFC victories have come against Sergey Morozov, Brian Kelleher, Nate Maness, Raoni Barcelo, and Bekzat Almakhan. Everything we've seen thus far suggests Umar is entirely legitimate and a potential future UFC Bantamweight Champion, but we'll know a heck of a lot more about his long-term potential after this fight.
Sandhagen lost three of five, including an interim title fight, from June 2020 to October 2021, but has since rebounded with three straight wins over Font, Marlon Vera, and Yadong Song. He has been fighting the best in the world for years now and has firmly entrenched himself as a top-five fighter in what is a loaded bantamweight division.
Like many grappling-based fighters, Nurmagomedov's numbers look strange. He's averaging 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. Like his cousin Khabib, Umar has the unique ability to force you to the mat even if his entries are far from perfect. Once he gets you there, you aren't getting up.
Because he spends so much time in top position, Umar absorbs a ridiculously low 0.56 significant strikes per minute. That number is unsustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's a record low for the company.
I'm curious how Nurmagomedov is going to fare in a prolonged striking battle. His grappling is lightyears ahead of his stand-up skills, although fighters of this level rarely have any significant weaknesses in any one area. I expect Sandhagen, who is three inches taller and has a one inch reach edge, to push the pace in hopes of tiring Umar out. Cory has landed 100-plus significant strikes four times in his UFC career, so he's capable of putting up a huge number over the course of 25 minutes as long as he isn't pinned to the mat constantly.
If we assume Sandhagen is an easy top-five bantamweight, then Nurmagomedov is priced as a future world champion, or at least multi-time title challenger. I think he wins because I've seen nothing to suggest the hype isn't entirely legitimate, but this is a massive step up in competition. I would have zero issues with anyone wanting to take the underdog shot on Cory. It's exceedingly rare to get a fighter with this type of ability for $7K. It allows you to do so many other things with your lineup.
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Shara Magomedov (13-0-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($9,000), Oleksiejczuk ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-240), Oleksiejczuk (+195)
This fight came together just a couple weeks ago. Nick Diaz and Vicente Luque were scheduled for the co-main spot, but that fell apart due to travel issues regarding Nick, and Magomedov v. Oleksiejczuk was added.
Michal moved down to middleweight from light heavyweight in August 2022 and has had mixed results. His record is just 3-3. The victories, each knockouts, were over Chidi Njokuani, Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey. The three setbacks came against Kevin Holland, Michel Pereira, and Caio Borralho. In other words, the company has done Oleksiejczuk no favors in regards to who it has matched him up against, and his record reflects that.
I could be completely off base here, but I have not been impressed with what I've seen from Magomedov thus far. Yes, the power is entirely legitimate, and he seems quite comfortable in a brawl, but his secondary skills, particularly offensively, seem questionable, and I'm not sold on his fight IQ. This should be a good measuring stick for him against a solid, but not elite, opponent.
Those three previously-mentioned Oleksiejczuk defeats to Holland, Pereira and Borralho all came via submission. If Magomedov goes out there and taps Michal out, I'll be very surprised and very impressed.
More likely, this fight quickly breaks down into a back-and-forth slugfest, which seems to be about the only fight Oleksiejczuk can win these days.
Not only CAN Michal win this fight, I think he will. Magomedov doesn't have the type of skill set I enjoy backing, and Oleksiejczuk is providing massive underdog value here. Sooner or later, unless he alters his style, Magomedov is going to get clipped in a wild exchange and go down. Michal has the power to make that happen, as long as he's able to stay standing with the thunder coming back his way, which is not a guarantee.
THE PICK: Oleksiejczuk
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera (23-9-1) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1)
DK Salaries: Vera ($7,800), Figueiredo ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Vera (+130), Figueiredo (-155)
Always a bit overrated in my opinion, Vera has predictably come crashing back down to earth, losing two of his last three fights. He's an excellent fighter who has legitimately gotten better as he's aged, but he's struggled mightily against Sandhagen, and most recently in a title fight against Sean O'Malley, two of the best around at 135 pounds. Vera is still a fringe top-five guy and is somehow just 31 years of age, but I think there's a far better than even chance we have already seen the best he has to offer inside the octagon.
A former UFC Flyweight Champion, Figueiredo moved up to bantamweight last December and has since taken back-to-back unanimous decisions over Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. Always massive for the 125-pound division, Figueiredo's speed and power have predictably held up just fine at 135 pounds.
This looks like a really bad matchup for Vera outside of the fact he's going to enter with a three inch edge in height and two inch edge in reach.
Like the previous fight, I expect another wild brawl here. Figueiredo is probably the better wrestler, but Vera is the bigger man, so I think there's a good chance those two things cancel each other out and we are left with a stand-up brawl.
I'm certainly not saying Deiveson is anyway near the technical striker O'Malley is, but Sean won the significant strike battle by a 232-89 count. Vera is ridiculously tough, having never been knocked out in 33 pro fights, but my point is that he is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. That strategy never works for long against high-end competition.
For his career, Vera averages 4.31 significant strikes landed per minute. He absorbs 5.48 per 60 seconds. It hasn't come back to bite him yet, but I guarantee all that damage is going to come back to haunt him over time.
I think Figgy's power will be the difference-maker. This fight is likely going to a decision, and while Vera may theoretically lead in terms of total strikes landed, the much bigger blows will come from Deiveson, allowing him to get his hand raised.
THE PICK: Figueiredo
Welterweight
Tony Ferguson (26-10-0) v. Michael Chiesa (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ferguson ($6,700), Chiesa ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Ferguson (+525), Chiesa (-750)
I, for one, am completely dumbfounded the UFC is running Ferguson back out there. Set to turn 41 years of age next February, Tony has lost SEVEN (!!!!) fights in a row dating back to May 2020. There were plenty of defeats to quality opposition in there (Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler), but he hasn't been the least bit competitive in his last three against lesser competition in Paddy Pimblett, King Green and Nate Diaz. This is theoretically a winnable fight for him, but you can't be picking Ferguson against literally anyone these days.
Chiesa is theoretically in better shape simply because he isn't Tony. He hasn't been all that much better of late, dropping three straight fights to Kevin Holland, Sean Brady and Vicente Luque. The Holland and Luque defeats were via submission, a real red flag when you take into account the only real positive in Chiesa's game these days is his grappling.
Tony has been competitive in short spurts during his losing streak, but almost all of his positive moments came early in fights. His gas tank doesn't appear to be a huge issue, but he's still getting progressively worse as his bouts go on. It could be nothing more than simple wear and tear. He's been in so many wars over the years that his body is beginning to give out on him.
On the surface, this looks like a fight Ferguson could either win, or at the least, remain competitive in. Chiesa's downfall hasn't been as swift as Tony's, but in many ways it's been just as vicious.
If Ferguson's body can hold up and he has any sting left on his punches, he can damage Chiesa on the feet. Michael doesn't have a single career win via knockout, so if he's going to stop Tony via strikes, it will be the first time in his career he's done so.
Of course, the most likely scenario is that Tony hangs in for about a round, tires, and then Chiesa drags him to the mat and grinds his way to a submission or decision.
The price tag on Michael is ridiculous given his recent struggles and entirely related to the lack of faith the market has in Ferguson. It's probably well founded, but I'm not going to pay to find out, even if I refuse to back Tony outright against literally anyone on the roster at this point in his career.
THE PICK: Chiesa
Other Bouts
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) v. Lupita Godinez (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Dern ($8,200), Godinez ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Dern (-130), Godinez (+110)
THE PICK: Godinez
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez (20-3-0) v. Elves Brener (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Alvarez ($8,300), Brener ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+155)
THE PICK: Alvarez
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1) v. Azamat Murzakanov (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Menifield ($7,500), Murzakanov ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (+170), Murzakanov (-205)
THE PICK: Murzakanov
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (12-4-0) v. Kaue Fernandes (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yahya ($6,900), Fernandes ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (+300), Fernandes (-380)
THE PICK: Fernandes
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev (12-1-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (11-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gaziev ($9,100), Mayes ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Gaziev (-245), Mayes (+200)
THE PICK: Gaziev
Lightweight
Guram Kutateladze (12-4-0) v. Jordan Vucenic (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kutateladze ($8,800), Vucenic ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Kutateladze (-205), Vucenic (+170)
THE PICK: Kutateladze
Women's Strawweight
Viktoriia Dudakova (8-0-0) v. Sam Hughes (8-6-0)
DK Salaries: Dudakova ($8,500), Hughes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Dudakova (-175), Hughes (+145)
THE PICK: Dudakova
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (12-5-1) v. Rolando Bedoya (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Herbert ($8,600), Bedoya ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Herbert (-155), Bedoya (+130)
THE PICK: Bedoya
Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas (9-2-0) v. Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dumas ($8,900), Tiuliulin ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Dumas (-215), Tiuliulin (+180)
THE PICK: Dumas
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Abu Dhabi with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
