This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 75 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (19-6-1) v. Jared Cannonier (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Vettori ($8,000), Cannonier ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Vettori (-110), Cannonier (-110)
Odds to Finish: +105
Vettori continues to go about his business, looking excellent against everyone other than the very top of the food chain at 185 pounds. Marvin is 8-3-1 in his last dozen bouts dating back to June 2017, with the three setbacks coming against current UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya (twice) and perennial contender Robert Whittaker. Vettori has defeated the likes of Paulo Costa, Jack Hermansson, Kevin Holland, and most recently, Roman Dolidze, during that stretch, so it's not as if he's beating up nobodies.
Cannonier began his UFC run at heavyweight before dropping down 205 pounds, but it was upon his November 2018 move to middleweight in which his career really took off. He's won six of eight at 185 pounds, with the defeats coming against, oddly enough, Adesanya and Whittaker. Jared has beaten the likes of Sean Strickland, Derek Brunson, Kelvin Gastelum, and Hermansson, so he, too, has some impressive names on his resume.
This figures to be an interesting contrast in styles. Cannonier should have a significant edge in terms of power. Not surprising considering the guy competed at heavyweight in the past. On the flip side, Vettori fires off plenty of volume and is always among the division's best conditioned athletes. In a fight scheduled for five rounds, I expect Marvin to have n overwhelming advantage in terms of late-round cardio.
As strong as Jared is in terms of upper-body strength, he's been taken down in four of his past eight fights. That presents an opening for Vettori, who averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. It's also worth noting Marvin doesn't have to fear any shots from Cannonier, who never wrestles.
Jared is going to have to consistently damage Vettori with power shots, because most everything else here appears to be going in Marvin's favor.
Toss in the fact that there is nearly a decade age gap between the two, and this is a pretty easy pick.
I don't for the life of me understand how this is essentially being viewed as a pick 'em. Cannonier is the type of fighter Vettori typically eats for lunch, especially in a five-round fight. I expect Marvin to continue to push forward, threaten the takedown when it's there and consistently damage Jared on the feet.
Maybe it will backfire, but I haven't feel this strongly about a "underdog" in a main event fight for a long, long time.
THE PICK: Vettori
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (19-3-0) v. Joaquim Silva (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Tsarukyan ($9,800), Silva ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Tsarukyan (-1000), Silva (+650)
Odds to Finish: -350
Tsarukyan was scheduled to face Renato Moicano in a main event in late-April before the latter withdrew due to injury and the bout was cancelled.
Tsarukyan is one of the most underrated fighters in the sport today and has been since his April 2019 arrival in the company. He dropped a Fight of the Night, unanimous decision to Islam Makhachev in his debut before winning six of his last seven. The lone setback during that stretch was a tight, five-round unanimous decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in late-June. Arman won't turn 27 years of age until this coming October and has legitimate top-five potential, if not more, even in a loaded lightweight division.
Silva's barely fought, appearing just three times since December 2018. He lost two of those fights via knockout (Rick Glenn, Nasrat Haqparast) before rebounding with a knockout win over Jesse Ronson last October. Now 34 years of age, Silva has zero history of going up against, let alone defeating, quality competition. He could be in for a long night here.
Silva is a BJJ black belt, but he has just three career wins via submission, compared to seven via knockout. He doesn't wrestle, averaging just 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes, while defending the takedown at just a 65 percent clip. He better be on point in that area, or else Tsarukyan -- and his 3.30 takedowns per 15 minutes -- are going to run him out of the building.
It's virtually impossible to envision a path to victory for the Brazilian in this fight.
His power is real, but Tsarukyan absorbs a ridiculously low 1.93 significant strikes per minute. Joaquim is almost certainly going to need to find one big punch that leads to a finish in order to win.
Tsarukyan is 6.5 years younger, enters with a three-inch reach advantage and possesses a huge edge in every area in which this fight may take place. I applaud him for accepting this bout given the fact he has everything to lose and absolutely nothing to gain.
Tsarukyan's salary is insane on a card scheduled for 14 fights, and it's going to be difficult to find enough acceptable underdogs to fill out your roster if you use him. Silva is of no interest as a "punt" play.
THE PICK: Tsarukyan
Middleweight
Armen Petrosyan (8-2-0) v. Christian Leroy Duncan (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Petrosyan ($7,600), Duncan ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Petrosyan (+125), Duncan (-150)
Odds to Finish: +105
A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Petrosyan has made three official appearances with the UFC, taking decisions over Gregory Rodrigues (split) and A.J. Dobson (unanimous), while also dropping a unanimous decision to the highly-regarded Caio Borralho. Armen is behind where he needs to be in terms of overall experience at age 32, but he has some potential.
For all intents and purposes, this will be Duncan's first fight with the UFC. He made his company debut this past March against Dusko Todorovic, but Dusko suffered a knee injury less than two minutes in, resulting in a TKO win for Christian.
The sample size is small, but Petrosyan has been impressive on the feet. He's averaging a whopping 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing just 2.75. As time goes on, it will be intriguing whether he can show some sort of advancements in terms of his grappling game to help him against better competition.
Petrosyan is a massive middleweight, checking in a 6-foot-3. Duncan is an inch shorter, but will enter with a remarkable eight-inch advantage in reach. I typically don't put a ton of stock in such a number, but both of these guys are pure strikers, and I expect this fight to be contested almost entirely in the stand-up.
This is not a deep card in terms of known talent, and while there would appear to be a wide range of outcomes for this fight given how little we know about each man, I like the idea of getting a piece of it in some form or fashion. Both men project to land plenty of volume on the feet, and there would appear to be a decent chance of a stoppage.
As I mentioned earlier, there aren't a ton of underdogs I like outright, and this seems like as good a place as any to make a stand. I'd take Duncan if the salaries were identical, but the $1,000 in savings could go a long way here in constructing a lineup.
THE PICK: Petrosyan
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (17-4-0) v. Lucas Almeida (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sabatini ($9,100), Almeida ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Sabatini (-185), Almeida (+150)
Odds to Finish: -175
Viewed by many as a fighter to keep an eye on at 145 pounds, Sabatini went out and won each of his first four UFC bouts. Yet, all that good work he put in was essentially ruined in a 69-second knockout loss to Damon Jackson last September. It was a concerning effort on multiple levels. It was just the second time in Sabatini's career he was stopped via strikes, but Jackson is known as a fighter with very little power. Pat appeared overwhelmed from the very start, and that obviously can't continue moving forward.
Almeida makes for an interesting opponent. He's the rare fighter that lost on Dana White's Contender Series and still received an opportunity with the company. He made his debut almost exactly a year ago, knocking out Mike Trizano early in Round 3. It was an impressive performance. All 14 of Almeida's career wins have come via stoppage (nine knockouts, five submissions).
The biggest question mark about Sabatini is how he will fare if his takedowns aren't landing. He's averaging 3.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, and as a result, his striking numbers -- both in terms of those landed and absorbed -- are low. He failed on his only attempt against Jackson, while allowing along Damon to land his only try.
Almeida's size is intriguing. He's a legitimate 5-foot-11 and will enter with a three-inch edge in height and an inch advantage in reach over Sabatani. The sample size is obviously non-existent, but Lucas appeared very reckless on the feet in both the Trizano bout and his unanimous decision loss to Daniel Zellhuber on DWCS. A wild, stand-up brawl is by no means Sabatini's preferred path to victory, but it's something to keep an eye on as Almeida moves along.
Sabatini probably doesn't have the long-term upside many initially believed, but he's clearly better than what we saw in the Jackson fight. His price is a little high and his non-wrestling skill set concerns me some, but this looks like a good chance for him to get back in the win column. I just have to see a bit more from Almeida before jumping onboard.
THE PICK: Sabatini
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Manuel Torres (13-2-0) v. Nikolas Motta (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Torres ($8,900), Motta ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Torres (-185), Motta (+150)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Torres
Welterweight
Nicolas Dalby (21-4-1, 2NC) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Dalby ($7,000), Salikhov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Dalby (+160), Salikhov (-190)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Salikhov
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos (17-4-0) v. Miles Johns (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Barcelos ($9,300), Johns ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Barcelos (-225), Johns (+190)
Odds to Finish: +105
THE PICK: Barcelos
Flyweight
Jimmy Flick (16-6-0) v. Alessandro Costa (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Flick ($6,800), Costa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Flick (+200), Costa (-250)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Costa
Bantamweight
Kyung Ho Kang (18-9-0, 1NC) v. Cristian Quinonez (18-3-0)
DK Salaries: Kang ($7,400), Quinonez ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Kang (+145), Quinonez (-175)
Odds to Finish: TBD
THE PICK: Quinonez
Flyweight
Carlos Hernandez (8-2-0) v. Denys Bondar (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,300), Bonder ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (+105), Bonder (-125)
Odds to Finish: +110
THE PICK: Bonder
Flyweight
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0) v. Felipe Bunes (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Zhumagulov ($8,500), Bunes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Zhumagulov (-165), Bunes (+140)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Bunes
Women's Flyweight
Tereza Bleda (6-1-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Bleda ($9,500), Fernandes ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Bleda (-275), Fernandes (+220)
Odds to Finish: +110
THE PICK: Bleda
Bantamweight
Dan Argueta (9-1-0) v. Ronnie Lawrence (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Argueta ($7,500), Lawrence ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Argueta (+155), Lawrence (-190)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Lawrence
Light Heavyweight
Zac Pauga (7-1-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pauga ($7,200), Bukauskas ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Pauga (+155), Bukauskas (-190)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Pauga
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 75 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
