This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 96 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 96 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Jared Cannonier (17-7-0) v. Caio Borralho (16-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Cannonier ($7,600), Borralho ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Cannonier (+190), Borralho (-230)
Now 40 years old, Cannonier is 2-2 in his past four fights dating back to July 2022. The wins were over Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori, while the setbacks came against Israel Adesanya in a title fight and Nassourdine Imavov in a main event spot in June. Cannonier, who entered the UFC at heavyweight in January 2015, could walk away tomorrow and his run with the company would be an overwhelming success. He's not quite on the same level as the very best middleweights in the world, but Cannonier isn't that far off. The issue is that given his advanced age, we've almost certainly seen the best he has to offer inside the Octagon.
Borralho is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC, in addition to a pair of victories on Dana White's Contender Series. He's too old to be called a prospect at age 31, but he's rolled through everyone put in his way thus far without issue. The "Fighting Nerds" team with which Borralho trains has been on an absolute roll of late, and Caio is probably the best fighter of the group.
The gap in competition these two have faced is both severe and legitimate. Cannonier has faced in his UFC career, amongst others, Adesanya, Strickland, Imavov, Vettori, Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum, Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson, Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira. Borralho's two best UFC wins are over Paul Craig and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Jared needs to lean into his experience, because it's probably going to be his greatest edge come fight night.
Caio is an interesting guy to watch fight because he doesn't appear to excel in any single area. He's a low-volume striker, landing just 2.91 significant strikes per minute. He averages 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and is plenty capable of pulling of a submission, but I wouldn't term him a pure mat specialist. He's just a solid all-around fighter with no noticeable weaknesses. He's also a better athlete than he gets credit for.
Cannonier is going to have to try to make this ugly, which may be difficult because most Borralho fights are pretty low-event. By that I mean it seems like there isn't a lot going on at times. If Jared sits back and isn't able to push the pace, I expect Caio to pick him apart, whether on the feet or on the mat.
We've seen Jared have massive striking performances in terms of volume in the past. He landed 241 significant strikes against Vettori. He connected on 141 against Strickland. He's going to need to be up in that general vicinity to take a decision here, because I don't think he's going to be able to stop Borralho.
Cannonier is a live underdog because he keeps himself in great shape despite his advanced age, but this has all the makings of the UFC giving Borralho a notable "name" to defeat in his rise up the rankings.
THE PICK: Borralho
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill (17-13-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hill ($8,200), Ricci ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Hill (-110), Ricci (-110)
Hill has been a personal favorite of mine for a long time. She's now 39 years of age, but she'll fight any one at any time, and she competes extremely frequently. The UFC gave Hill another chance following a three-fight losing streak from August 2021 to May 2022, and she has since responded with victories in three of her last four fights. Hill is one of the division's true measuring sticks for younger fighters, and she'll fill that role once again in this one.
A former LFA standout, Ricci joined the company in June 2021. She was knocked out by rising star Manon Fiorot in her UFC debut, but has since gone on to win five of her last six. Just 29 years of age, Ricci has a theoretical much higher ceiling than Hill, but Angie also has a massive experience edge.
A look beneath the hood regarding Ricci reveals some concerns. Each of her last previously mentioned six fights have gone to a decision. The two most recent -- against Tecia Pennington (win) and Lupita Godinez (loss) -- were via split decision. I like Ricci, but her inability to stop her opposition is going to cost her sooner rather than later.
Hill is one of the division's most technical strikers. She lands a whopping 5.38 significant strikes per minute and excels at stringing together combinations. Hill is going to have a big edge over Ricci in a kickboxing match, giving Tabatha's brawling tendencies and the fact she generally looks uncomfortable when forced to stand and trade for an extended period of time.
Ricci averages 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, but the vast majority of those came early in her UFC run. She went 1-for-10 against Pennington and 0-for-6 against Godinez, and she predictably struggled in both of those fights despite emerging with a win and a loss.
Hill's takedown defense is hit or miss. She's extremely well coached, however, and I guarantee Hill and her team are well aware that Ricci needs to get her grappling game going to be successful and as a result, Angie will do whatever is necessary to remain upright.
As the odds suggest, flip a coin here. Ultimately, I think Hill's volume will be the difference. I'd be shocked if this fight didn't see the final bell.
THE PICK: Hill
Welterweight
Neil Magny (29-12-0) v. Michael Morales (16-0-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($6,700), Morales ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Magny (+600), Morales (-900)
The gatekeeper to the stars, Magny is fresh off a knockout win over Mike Malott in January. Magny was dominated for the entirety of that fight, only to hang in there and earn the stoppage with just 15 seconds remaining after Malott tired. Magny is now 37 years of age and has been a member of the UFC roster for more than 11 years. Like Cannonier, Neil's career has been an overwhelming success relative to original expectations.
Morales will be an extremely stiff test, however. The undefeated 25-year-old native of Ecuador has racked up wins over Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles to begin his UFC run. Morales is an excellent athlete with the ability to dominate on the feet, in addition to mixing in a takedown.
This feels like the right fight for both men given the time. Magny has nothing to lose. His 22 victories are the most in UFC welterweight history. He's also one of the best fighters I've ever seen in terms of making both fight-by-fight, and in-fight, adjustments. Neil will to do whatever is necessary to emerge victorious. While so many competitors stick with just one method of attack, Magny is more than willing to mix things up depending on his opposition.
Magny has been taken down in four straight fights. He allowed four to Malott on just six attempts and spent 6:02 worth of the bout on his back. I highly, highly doubt a miracle late stoppage is going to materialize once again if he allows Morales to get his grappling game going.
That's the main concern and the nightmare scenario for Neil. A below-average athlete even in his prime, Magny can't come remotely close to matching either the athleticism nor the explosiveness of Morales. Neil is going to have to get by on guts and experience. That works once in a while, but is a clear losing proposition over the long term.
Morales has to be the pick given where these two are at in their respective careers, but I don't like the price tag, either from a DraftKings standpoint or the Vegas odds. Magny has made a living of winning these type of fights in which everyone has counts him out. The Malott performance was highly concerning, but the bottom line is that he emerged victorious. If Morales shows up prepared to work and his cardio is on point, he should be fine. That's not a given, and thus I'm not as confident with this result as I should be given the individual skill sets of each fighter.
THE PICK: Morales
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (36-17-0)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($9,000), Meerschaert ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (-310), Meerschaert (+250)
Stop me if you've heard this before, but here we have yet another battle of a younger fighter with some theoretical potential (Shahbazyan) against an aging veteran (Meerschaert).
Set to turn 37 years of age in December, this will be Meerschaert's 54th (!!!) professional fight, the last 20 of which have come with the UFC. Gerald lost back-to-back fights to Joe Pyfer (KO) and Andrei Petroski (split decision) last year before rebounding with a technical submission over Bryan Barberena in March. Over the course of his time with the company, Meerschaert has faced the likes of Jack Hermansson, Kevin Holland and Thiago Santos.
Shahbazyan is just 2-4 in his past six bouts, and that's with winning two of his last three. The latest in the long line of younger fighters who was pushed way too fast, Edmen has seemingly never be able to truly recover from some lopsided defeats early in his UFC run. I think he beats Meerschaert, and I'll get to why in a moment, but I'm not the least bit optimistic about his long-term future.
You can look at Hill's striking and Magny's fight IQ and come up with reasons to back the veterans in difficult spot. It's much more difficult with Meerschaert. Gerald is a one-dimensional mat specialist and has been for years. Don't get me wrong, he's very tricky on the ground and capable of putting you away in an instant if you get lazy and leave a limb exposed, but he struggles mightily on the feet.
Edmen is the complete opposite. He has plenty of power and is a solid striker, but his stand-up defense is woeful. He displays next to no footwork and really struggles to get his head off the center line. Any opponent that is able to go in there with some sort of educated game plan on the feet and not fall into his traps can have tons of success. Sadly, I don't think "GM3" is that guy.
With 28 career wins via submission and six via knockout, Meerschaert knows where his bread is buttered. He can pick up a handful of takedowns against lesser competition, but he's not much of a wrestler. It's worth mentioning that Edmen has given up at least three takedowns in three of his last six fights, but I would certainly term Hermansson, Brunson and Anthony Hernandez as much better pure wrestlers than Meerschaert.
Gerald's win condition is essentially Shahbazyan making a mistake and leaving a limb exposed. It certainly could happen, and I'm actively looking to fade Edmen whenever possible, but this doesn't feel like the spot.
THE PICK: Shahbazyan
Other Bouts
The Ultimate Fighter 22 - Middleweight Final
Ryan Loder (6-1-0) v. Robert Valentin Frey (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Loder (+130), Frey (-160)
THE PICK: Loder
Featherweight
Danny Silva (9-1-0) v. Dennis Buzukja (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,800), Buzukja ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-240), Buzukja (+200)
THE PICK: Buzukja
Middleweight
Zachary Reese (7-1-0) v. Jose Medina (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Reese ($9,200), Medina ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Reese (-520), Medina (+390)
THE PICK: Reese
Lightweight
Slava Borshchev (7-4-1) v. James Llontop (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Borschev ($8,700), Llontop ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Borschev (-230), Llontop (+190)
THE PICK: Borschev
Women's Bantamweight
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (6-1-0) v. Josiane Nunes (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Cavalcanti ($8,500), Nunes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Cavalcanti (-190), Nunes (+160)
THE PICK: Nunes
Women's Flyweight
Cong Wang (5-0-0) v. Victoria Leonardo (9-6-0)
DK Salaries: Wang ($9,600), Leonardo ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Wang (-1050), Leonardo (+675)
THE PICK: Wang
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 96 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
