Get top DraftKings UFC DFS picks and insight for UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC 321 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 321 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight Championship
(C) Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) v. Ciryl Gane (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aspinall ($9,400), Gane ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Aspinall (-460), Gane (+320)
Set to make his first title defense as the undisputed champion, Aspinall will be fighting for the first time since July 2024. He's 8-1 in nine UFC fights, with all nine wins coming via stoppage (six knockouts, two submissions), including seven in Round 1. Aspinall's last three fights have lasted 60, 69, and 73 seconds respectively. His lone defeat with the company was a July 2022 fight against Curtis Blaydes in which he blew out his knee 15 seconds in. Aspinall has been as dominant as any fighter in the sport since his July 2020 company arrival.
Gane is a solid fighter, but the fact he's in this spot right now speaks to the overwhelming lack of depth in the heavyweight division at the moment. And plenty of luck. Gane is just 3-2 in his last five fights and is coming off a split decision win over Alexander Volkov last December. That decision was so bad that UFC President Dana White personally apologized to Volkov afterwards. Now, about 10 months later, he's getting another title shot.
Aspinall doesn't have a single weakness in his game. At 32 years old, he's still a baby by heavyweight division standards. His power is ridiculous, and in the rare instances in which he's decides to grapple, he's done so flawlessly. No, really. I mean flawlessly. Tom has a 100 percent takedown accuracy and 100 percent takedown defense with the UFC. He has the look of a guy that could hold the belt for a long, long time. He's that good, and the current state of the division is that weak.
So, what does Gane have going for him? Well, for starters, he's an above-average athlete. He moves very well, is light on his feet, and is capable of winning from the outside. Ciryl will have a three-inch edge in reach despite giving up an inch in height to the champ.
The issue is that Aspinall figures to have the answer to every single one of those questions, likely quite easily.
Aspinall has been training with Glory Heavyweight Kickboxing Champion Rico Verhoeven for this fight.
If it stays standing, I think he hammers Gane.
If he wants to grapple, I think he gets Gane to the mat without issue and controls him.
This is one of the easiest picks I've had to make in a while for such a high-profile fight.
THE PICK: Aspinall
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Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight Championship
Virna Jandiroba (22-3-0) v. Mackenzie Dern (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jandiroba ($7,600), Dern ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Jandiroba (+140), Dern (-180)
This fight will be for the 115-pound championship, vacated by Zhang Weili so she can move up and challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC Women's Flyweight Championship at Madison Square Garden next month.
Jandiroba and Dern fought in December 2020, with the latter winning via unanimous decision. The fight was so long ago that I put no stock in the prior result.
Like Gane earlier, Dern is getting a title shot despite entirely middling results of late. Yes, she's won back-to-back fights over Amanda Ribas (submission) and Lupita Godinez (unanimous decision), but even with those two wins, Mackenzie is still just 4-4 in her past eight fights dating back to October 2021. She's very difficult to get a read on, as there's no consistency, sometimes even on a round-by-round basis.
Jandiroba, on the other hand, has won five in a row. Four came via unanimous decision (Yan Xiaonan, Godinez, Marina Rodriguez, Angela Hill) and one via submission (Amanda Lemos). Virna is legitimately improving. The main concern now is the fact she'll be 38 years of age next May, so her stay at the top could be quite limited even if she's able to get by Dern.
Dern's mat exploits are well known. She is a BJJ wizard and always a threat when a fight hits the ground, but she's not a great wrestler. Mackenzie averages less than a takedown per 15 minutes (0.89) and she's always been stiff and uncomfortable on the feet, getting hit too much and displaying little confidence in her striking.
The good news for Dern is that no fighter in the division is less active in terms of striking volume that Jandiroba (1.97 significant strikes landed per minute). Part of that is because she's always trying to grapple. Virna defeated Yan 30-27 x3 her last time out and was credited with just 11 significant strikes landed. She had 9:59 worth of control time in the fight, and again landed 11(!!!!) strikes. It's positioning over damage every single time.
I have no real lean here. I ultimately settled on Dern because in order for Virna to win, I think she's going to have to win three rounds on the strength of control time, and that's difficult to predict, especially against an opponent with the BJJ skills of Mackenzie.
THE PICK: Dern
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) v. Mario Bautista (16-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,600), Bautista ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-590), Bautista (+390)
Clearly one of the best bantamweights in the world, Cousin Umar got his shot at UFC gold in January against Merab Dvalishvili. He started quickly before Merab's legendary cardio proved to be the difference. While the result was disappointing, Dvalishvili is one of the best 135-pounders in the history of the sport. Dropping a competitive decision to him isn't the end of the world. I remain high on Nurmagomedov and can easily see him earning another title shot sooner than later.
Speaking of deserving an opportunity, Bautista enters having won eight in a row. He is without a loss dating back to March 2021. His only two UFC setbacks were a flash knockout against Trevin Jones and a submission loss to a perennial contender in Cory Sandhagen. My main concern is the fact Bautista is short on notable wins. His last two wins were a split decision over an aging Jose Aldo and an easy unanimous decision win over Patchy Mix. The Mix win in hindsight isn't as impressive as it looked at the time, and that fight just happened in June. Any way you slice it, this is a huge step up in competition for Mario.
Nurmagomedov is an exceptional wrestler. He's averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He went just 2-for-15 against Merab, but a good chunk of those tries came as the fight progressed and Umar was tiring.
Bautista's takedown defense is hit or miss. Overall, he's at 67 percent, a middling number. He gave up a couple takedowns to Ricky Simon back in the day and four to Da'Mon Blackshear. Both of those guys can wrestle, but neither are in the technical grappling class of Nurmagomedov.
Mario makes his living as an aggressive striker. Heck, he landed 173 significant strikes against Mix. He's landed 79 or more in three of his past four fights. He's could potentially double Umar up on the feet if he can stay upright, but that's obviously far from a guarantee.
I'm willing to listen to the argument that Bautista should be the pick based upon value alone. In no world is there $3,000 in salary difference between these two guys. I wouldn't be shocked in the least if Mario remains upright long enough to give Umar troubles on the feet, but I still think the latter gets just enough grappling going to win. He's overpriced and a questionable play regardless of who you think will win, however.
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (38-11-0) v. Jailton Almeida (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Volkov ($7,400), Almeida ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Volkov (+170), Almeida (-225)
Volkov has been on the sidelines since December, and rightfully so. He fought Gane that evening in Las Vegas and took a no-doubt unanimous decision from him. Instead, two of three incompetent judges scored it the other way. Volkov saw his four-fight winning streak stopped in the process. His reward for getting shafted on the scorecards is a tough fight here against Almeida, while Gane is in the main event fighting Aspinall for the title. Would I pick Volkov to beat Aspinall? No, I wouldn't, but the roles very easily could, and should, be reversed.
Almeida is really difficult to get a read on -- arguably more difficult than any guy in the company. His UFC record is exceptional. He's 8-1 with seven stoppage wins. Three are via knockout, four are via submission and five have come in the opening round. His lone loss was a knockout at the hands of Curtis Blaydes 36 seconds into Round 2 back in March 2024. In Round 1 of that fight, Almeida had nine takedowns and 4:39 worth of control time. The guy is very good and a freak athlete. I just still don't know how it's all going to come together against the very best in the division.
The concern with Volkov is the age. He'll be 37 years old the day before this event takes place. He's a very good, long kickboxer. Volkov is 6-foot-7. He's a much more technical striker than Almeida. Yet, if the hand speed or foot speed declines even a bit, there are going to be problems down the road.
The numbers are sort of irrelevant because so many of his fights have been so short, but Almeida is averaging an insane 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. It's elite explosiveness. The cardio is an open question because the one time we saw Almeida go five rounds, he racked up 21:10 worth of control time against Derrick Lewis and couldn't get him out of there. That's concerning. For three rounds? Sign me up.
This could very well be a bad pick, but I'm taking the underdog in Volkov. Almeida has more than his fair share of question marks, and Volkov has aged pretty well to date. I don't think Jailton knocks him out, and I think Alex has a significant cardio edge.
THE PICK: Volkov
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Light Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakic (14-5-0) v. Azamat Murzakanov (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rakic ($7,900), Murzakanov ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Rakic (-105), Murzakanov (-120)
Rakic is a ton of fun to watch. He's one of the most entertaining guys on the roster. But he's also lost three in a row and is without a victory dating back to March 2021. There have been a bunch of injuries along the way, and the three previously mentioned setbacks have come against Magomed Ankalaev, Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz, but sooner or later you have to pick up wins. At 33 years of age, Rakic might be done in terms of being on the fringes of title contention at 205 pounds.
Speaking of guys that are difficult to get a read on, add Murzakanov to the list. For starters, he'll be 37 years of age next April. He's 5-0 in the UFC -- in addition to a win on Dana White's Contender Series -- with four of the wins coming via knockout. That said, his victories with the company are over Brendson Ribeiro, Alonzo Menifield, Dustin Jacoby, Devin Clark and Tafon Nchukwi. Regardless of what you think of Rakic, this is a step up in competition for Murzakanov.
The reason I can't get behind Rakic is because of his lack of adaptability. Essentially, he fights like Prochazka. The issues are the past injuries and the fact he's way less durable. Rakic is a brawler. He has no means of generating secondary offense if his power shots aren't landing, and even if they are, he gets hit so much that it often doesn't matter.
Here, he's facing a guy in Murzakanov that has flattened almost everyone put in front of him.
The pros in Rakic's favor are one, he's younger. And two, and more importantly, he's six inches taller and has a seven-inch reach advantage.
If his durability holds up, he has the power to make things interesting. I just trust Murzakanov more at this point, especially in a fight that is apparently trending towards a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Murzakanov
OTHER BOUTS
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (18-5-0) v. Quillan Salkilld (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Haqparast (-120), Salkilld (-105)
THE PICK: Salkilld
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (16-2-0) v. Jun Yong Park (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Aliskerov ($9,000), Park ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Aliskerov (-265), Park (+200)
THE PICK: Aliskerov
Lightweight
L'udovit Klein (23-5-1) v. Mateusz Rebecki (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Klein ($8,400), Rebecki ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Klein (-145), Rebecki (+115)
THE PICK: Rebecki
Lightweight
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4-0) v. Matheus Camilo (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Al-Selwady ($8,200), Camilo ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Al-Selwady (-120), Camilo (-105)
THE PICK: Camilo
Heavyweight
Valter Walker (14-1-0) v. Louie Sutherland (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Walker (-340), Sutherland (+250)
THE PICK: Walker
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (21-6-0) v. Jose Miguel Delgado (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($7,700), Delgado ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Wood (+125), Delgado (-160)
THE PICK: Delgado
Heavyweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab (6-1-0, 1NC) v. Chris Barnett (23-9-0)
DK Salaries: Abdelwahab ($9,300), Barnett ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Abdelwahab (-390), Barnett (+280)
THE PICK: Barnett
Flyweight
Azat Maksum (15-2-0) v. Mitch Raposo (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Maksum ($9,200), Raposo ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Maksum (-340), Raposo (+250)
THE PICK: Maksum
Women's Strawweight
Jaqueline Amorim (10-1-0) v. Mizuki Inoue (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Amorim ($9,500), Inoue ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Amorim (-480), Inoue (+330)
THE PICK: Amorim
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
