This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Austin card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-0-0) v. Veronica Hardy (7-4-1)
Jamey-Lyn Horth - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Veronica Hardy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Hardy returned triumphantly to MMA after three years off in March and is now fighting for the second time in 2023. Horth last fought at the end of April, winning her UFC debut unanimously. The fight should be relatively close, but I would give Horth fighting at her natural 125 to have the edge everywhere. I expect her to cruise to another decision, if not an early finish.
UFC Austin Pick: Horth
Wellington Turman (18-7-0) v. Jared Gooden (22-9-0)
Wellington Turman - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Jared Gooden - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Gooden's first fight in his return to the UFC was about as poor as it gets. Not only did he lose unanimously, he missed weight by seven pounds and did not look great. Turman has lost two in a row and five of his last eight in his UFC stint, looking equally bad in most fights. This fight is a toss-up, but I expect it to feature plenty of action and a possible finish. If Gooden looks good on the scale, I think it will be his fight to lose. This is a sneaky fight to use for DFS lineups.
UFC Austin Pick: Gooden
Ihor Potieria (20-4-0) v. Rodolfo Bellato (11-2-0)
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
Rodolfo Bellato - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Potieria will soon be looking at walking papers if he cannot put together some wins in the UFC. The only win in three fights came against an aging fighter with nothing left in the tank. Bellato is making his UFC debut after a thrilling DWCS win and has plenty of steam heading into this fight. I expect this to end early and likely at the hands of Bellato. He will have the edge everywhere and should make quick work of Potieria. This is one of my favorite fights to target for DFS.
UFC Austin Pick: Bellato
Steve Garcia (14-5-0) v. Melquizael Costa (20-6-0)
Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak and is now 3-2 in the UFC promotion. All three wins are by knockout, and he is as dangerous as it gets on the feet. Costa earned his first UFC win last time out, winning unanimously after a solid 15 minutes. Each fighter has a path to victory. Costa's best bet is to get this to the mat, as striking with Garcia likely wouldn't end well for him. I will lean on Garcia's experience and takedown defense to get this win. This fight makes an excellent choice for GPP lineups.
UFC Austin Pick: Garcia
Joe Solecki (13-3-0) v. Drakkar Klose (13-2-1)
Joe Solecki - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Drakkar Klose - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Klose is riding a two-fight win streak but has not fought in nearly a year and a half. He will have the edge on the feet in this one. Solecki is also riding a two-fight win streak but last fought in February and will have a considerable edge on the mat. Both fighters will have their chances in this matchup, but I expect Solecki to keep this on the mat longer than Klose can keep it standing up. If Solecki chains takedowns and runs up control time, he could score well over 100 for DFS purposes.
UFC Austin Pick: Solecki
Cody Brundage (9-5-0) v. Zach Reese (6-0-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Zachary Reese - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Brundage was getting handled last time out before being awarded a DQ win, likely saving his UFC tenure. He is impossible to trust and never seems to come in fully prepared. Reese is making his UFC debut after a flash armbar on the Contender Series and will be the popular pick to win. He will have the edge everywhere and should put Brundage away early. Reese will be very popular for all DFS contests but still makes a solid play for cash and GPP.
UFC Austin Pick: Reese
Miesha Tate (19-9-0) v. Julia Avila (9-2-0)
Miesha Tate - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Julia Avila - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Though Tate won in her return to the UFC back in 2021, she has lost twice in a row since and has clearly lost a step. Avila has won three of four and has looked solid in all her wins. I expect her to be better everywhere and could potentially be one of the higher-scoring fighters in the 8k range on DraftKings if she comes out fast.
UFC Austin Pick: Avila
Punahele Soriano (9-3-0) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0)
Punahele Soriano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Dustin Stoltzfus - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be another popular target fight for DFS contests. Soriano is a knockout artist and will have a massive edge on the feet. However, his takedown defense is dreadful, and Stoltzfus is an excellent grappler. Stoltzfus has not looked great in the UFC, but this is a winnable fight for him. He has a weak chin and could go down in Round 1, or he could immediately shoot for takedowns and crush value. Pick a side and roll with it.
UFC Austin Pick: Stoltzfus
Clay Guida (38-23-0) v. Joaquim Silva (12-4-0)
Clay Guida - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 38 wins
Joaquim Silva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a low-level fight that I would not anticipate a high DFS score from. Neither guy looks to wrestle much. I would give Silva the edge in volume and power; he is my pick to win.
UFC Austin Pick: Silva
Sean Brady (15-1-0) v. Kelvin Gastelum (18-8-0)
Sean Brady - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 15 wins
Kelvin Gastelum - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Brady took his first loss last time out, getting knocked out late in the second round. Gastelum got himself back in the win column last time out, winning unanimously after three rounds. This could be a boring decision or a high-intensity fight. Gastelum is tough on the feet and has solid striking defense. Brady looked vulnerable for the first time in his last fight, but I think this will be a get-right spot for him, as long as he goes to his wrestling. If he chooses to strike with Gastelum, he might be seeing stars again.
UFC Austin Pick: Brady
Rob Font (20-7-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1)
Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Deiveson Figueiredo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Figueiredo has fought Moreno four consecutive times, so it is hard to know how he will look against another fighter, especially after getting knocked out last fight. Font has lost three of four, including his most recent fight. If Figueiredo uses his takedowns and turns this into a grappling match, I would give him the edge. However, I expect this to primarily take place on the feet, where Font will have the edge in volume. Three rounds in a striking match may not pay off for DFS purposes without a finish.
UFC Austin Pick: Font
Jalin Turner (13-7-0) v. Bobby Green (31-14-1)
Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 31 wins
DFS Perspective: Turner is taking this fight on extremely short notice, and that is my only concern with him in this fight. His weigh-in will be important for this fight. He has lost two in a row and needs to get back on top. Green has moved the other way. After losing two in a row, he has now won two in a row. If Turner is not ready for this fight, he will get pieced up. As of writing this, I will assume he is ready. At 100 percent, he will have the edge at range, power and anywhere on the mat.
UFC Austin Pick: Turner
Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) v. Arman Tsarukyan (20-3-0)
Beneil Dariush - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 22 wins
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: The main event should come down to whoever records takedowns and keeps control on the mat. I do not expect much striking on the feet from either fighter, but I would expect Tsarukyan to be the better of the two. This fight has title implications, so both fighters will come out at their best. Tsarukyan is just slightly better everywhere and should be the winner.
UFC Austin Pick: Tsarukyan
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Austin DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
