This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 75 on Saturday night. The main events sees top-five middleweights throw down as Marvin Vettori takes on Jared Cannonier.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (8-0) vs. Armen Petrosyan (7-2)
Christian Leroy Duncan picked up his first UFC win back in March, but it was not in the fashion he wanted, as Dusko Todorovic blew out his knee in the first round. Yet, the Brit still showed some promise in the 1:52 they fought.
Petrosyan, meanwhile, is 2-1 in the UFC. He's someone who, to me, is a borderline top-15 fighter in the future.
Both Duncan and Petrosyan are great strikers, but Duncan is more powerful and is the better defensive striker. I worry about Petrosyan's chin and cardio, as he does slow down in his fights. Duncan also appears to have the advantage on the ground.
I may be in the minority that thinks this fight goes the distance, but Duncan will land the better shots and mix in takedowns to get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan (-145)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos (17-4) vs. Miles Johns (13-2)
Raoni Barcelos should not be a -215 favorite in this fight, which is why I have to take Miles Johns here.
Barcelos is coming off a first-round KO loss to Umar Nurmagomedov and is 1-3 in his last four (he beat Trevin Jones and lost to Victor Henry and Timur Valiev). The Brazilian was a dark horse at bantamweight for years, but he has looked older and slower since, so there is no way he should be -215.
Johns, meanwhile, did not have the best fight last time out against Vince Morales. For some context, he had just switched camps and on the Friday night before that bout, the entire James Krause saga went down. Effectively, he was pulled from his coach the night before the fight.
Barcelos throws more volume than Johns, as he lands 5.69 significant strikes but absorbs 5.06 (while Johns lands 3.63 and absorbs 2.85). Both Barcelos and Johns have great takedown defense, so I expect it to play out on the feet. Johns will be able to land the better shots, as Barcelos is slowing down and will be there to be hit.
To me, Barcelos should be around a -150 favorite, so to get Johns at +185 makes it a play.
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Miles Johns (+185)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (19-3) vs. Joaquim Silva (12-3)
Arman Tsarukyan is the biggest favorite on the card at -1050, but there is a way we can get him at -135.
Tsarukyan has had a hard time getting ranked opponents to fight him, so he will instead face unranked Joaquim Silva, who' is 5-3 in the UFC.
This fight likely won't last long, as Tsarukyan has KO power and great wrestling, but I believe he will keep this fight on the feet instead of going to the ground with the Brazilian. On the feet, Tsarukyan lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.93. Silva, meanwhile, lands 4.08 and absorbs 4.58, so the striking defense is a concern.
Silva did look better in his last fight when he beat Jesse Ronson, but before that, he was knocked out by both Nasrat Haqparast and Rick Glenn. I don't think the Brazilian's chin will be able to take Tsarukyan's best shots, so I like Tsarukyan to get the KO win.
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
Weight Class: Flyweight & Welterweight
Alessandro Costa (12-3) vs. Jimmy Flick (16-6)
Muslim Salikhov (19-3) vs. Nicolas Dalby (21-4-1)
For my parlay, I'm taking Alessandro Costa and Muslim Salikhov to get their hands raised Saturday.
Costa actually was impressive in his UFC debut, as he took on Amir Albazi on short notice and had some success in the fight before being stopped in the third round. Flick, meanwhile, shockingly retired from MMA following his UFC debut (where he submitted Cody Durden).
Flick then came back just over two years later and looked terrible, getting knocked out in the first round against Charles Johnson. Flick is submission or bust here, and Costa should be able to keep it standing and likely get a TKO win.
For the other leg, I like Salikhov to beat Dalby in what should be a fan-friendly fight.
Both Salikhov and Dalby throw roughly the same amount of volume, but the difference in this fight is the fact Dalby is there to be hit. He has a striking defense of just 53 percent compared to Salikhov's 67 percent. Salikhov is also the better wrestler should he decide to grapple, but I think he should pick apart Dalby and win a clear-cut decision.
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bet: Alessandro Costa & Muslim Salikhov parlay (+111)
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 75 best bets:
- Christian Leroy Duncan (-145)
- Miles Johns (+185)
- Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
- Alessandro Costa & Muslim Salikhov parlay (+111)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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