UFC Vegas 106 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
12 intriguing bouts await us for the UFC's trip back to the Apex. We'll look at every fight across three platforms, including a flyweight who can do a bit of everything, and a debutante who seems poised to knock out a veteran. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jared Gordon ($8,200)
The pressure and pace exhibited by Gordon in his fight against Nasrat Haqparast were things to behold, as he negated clear speed and agility disadvantages en route to dropping a controversial split decision. Thiago Moises is an excellent grappler but tends to overswing when crowded by his opponents, which opens him up to being grounded or hit with counter shots. While Gordon could struggle if the Brazilian gets his wrestling going, he has never been one to hit takedowns off his back foot.
Carlos Hernandez ($7,800)
Hernandez may be the best 3-3 fighter in the UFC. The 31-year-old is an excellent scrambler, can wrestle offensively, and has fast hands that he can throw in combination. Hyun Sung Park has succeeded to this point largely due to power and physicality, combined with an excellent ability to find his opponent's back. Hernandez is hittable, so a knockout loss is possible, but I'm rolling with the more skilled fighter at an underdog price.
Tainara Lisboa ($7,800)
Lisboa and Luana Santos are similar in that they are both powerful, physically strong grapplers. Unlike Santos, however, Lisboa is a shot wrestler (including reactive shots). This should give her a clear advantage over her counterpart, who will need to rely on trips in clinch situations. Lisboa should also throw the cleaner shots at range, meaning we could get a definitive result in a closely lined matchup.
Melquizael Costa ($8,700)
Julian Erosa gets a quick turnaround after easily dispatching the division's old warhorse Darren Elkins, but he should find a much more formidable opponent here. While he'll still enjoy a three-inch reach advantage, Erosa will be well behind in agility and footwork. He also will not have his grappling to lean on, as Costa has eight submission victories among his 15 career finishes.
Denise Gomes ($9,500)
This is a clean-up spot for Gomes, as Elise Reed has never had an answer for strong grapplers in the UFC. While she does have the power to get a knockout here, I expect that "Dee" will take the path of least resistance rather than try to play a range striking game with a volume puncher like Reed.
Yadier Del Valle ($9,200)
It's been a while since we've seen a fighter who can't take damage, but Connor Matthews fits the bill. While he has a decent all-around offensive game, "The Controller" got punched around the Octagon by Dennis Buzukja, and one hard shot from Jose Miguel Delgado put him on the canvas. For all his faults, Del Valle is a strong, aggressive puncher. That should be enough to get the job done.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Tecia Pennington OVER 64.5 Significant Strikes, and Rodolfo Bellato UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes
I was a bit surprised at the line here, as you have to go back to 2020 to find a fight where Pennington didn't clear this total. Luana Santos is a fighter who throws everything she has into singular strikes before looking for takedowns, but Pennington's agility and pressure should nullify the Brazilian's wrestling game.
I've always had a soft spot for Paul Craig as someone who finds ways to win despite a limited skill set. However, he has been knocked out by no fewer than four big punchers in his UFC career. Bellato is far from a perfect fighter, but I doubt his Scottish opponent can exploit his lack of striking defense, and the Brazilian has defended all nine takedown attempts he has faced in the Octagon. All signs point to a quick knockout here.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC plays to consider on PrizePicks - Takedowns
Gilbert Burns UNDER 1.5 Takedowns and Dustin Stoltzfus UNDER 1.0 Takedowns
Watching Burns shell up and wait his turn on the feet against Sean Brady makes me wonder how he'll get on the inside against Michael Morales, who comes into this fight with a whopping eight-inch reach advantage. If he can make his way past the range, there are legitimate questions of how the young prospect will deal with the hard-hitting former title challenger, but Burns seems too far into his decline to have much success.
A similar dynamic is at play in Stoltzfus's fight, where Nursulton Ruziboev will command a height advantage of five inches. While Ruziboev was taken down on all four of Joaquin Buckley's attempts, Stoltzfus doesn't have the athleticism or strength of " New Mansa, " which should leave him unable to close the distance.
UFC Bets to Consider
Matheus Camilo Wins via KO/TKO (+200)
This seems like a ready-made matchup for Camillo, a counter-puncher with quick, heavy hands. Gabriel Green's style of barreling into range with strikes got him knocked out quickly against Bryan Battle, and Camilo's command of distance should help him line up the home run shot. Add in that Green is stepping into the Octagon for the first time since being KOed two years ago, and I don't see much reason to put my faith anywhere else.
Mairon Santos Wins via KO/TKO (+390)
Sodiq Yusuff is a dangerous offensive fighter, but we need to start asking why he gets hurt so often. "Super" has been knocked down three times in his last two fights and staggered badly at multiple other points in his career. I believe the issue is a lack of defensive responsibility, as Yusuff tends to hang out in positions for far too long, whether in a Thai clinch or striking at range. This is a bad tendency to have against Santos, who will look for hard counter shots and is dangerous with elbows at close range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 106 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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