July is here, and the fireworks of the 4th are right around the corner. First, though, what does Wednesday hold for us? Well, there are 10 games on the DFS docket starting at 7:07 p.m. EDT or later. If you need some more burger buns or sparklers, some DFS success would help. Here are my lineup recommendations. Also, just FYI, rain really messed up Tuesday's schedule, increasing the chances for logistical chaos Wednesday.
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Pitching
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. SFG ($9,500): It's been a nice bounce-back season for Kelly, who has a 3.49 ERA and 9.18 K/9 rate. Over the last three seasons he has a 3.13 ERA at home as well, even with an iffy 2024 campaign. The Giants are used to playing in a pitcher-friendly park, but they are in the bottom 10 in runs scored.
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. KAN ($9,400): Beyond his ERA, Gilbert's having the best season of his career. His FIP is down to 3.08, and his K/BB rate is a stellar (and I grant you unsustainable) 8.38. Plus, as per usual, he's benefiting from Seattle's home ballpark. Since 2023 he has a 3.12 ERA at home. At this point in the season, the Royals have definitely slotted themselves into being one of the three or four worst offenses in MLB. They are last in runs scored at present.
Shota Imanaga, CHC vs. CLE ($7,800): Imanaga's first start back from his injury was encouraging. He only had three strikeouts against the Cardinals over five innings, but he allowed one run and one walk, and zero runs. In seven of his nine outings Imanaga has given up one run or fewer. The Guardians' drift into the bottom five in runs scored may be temporary as they have a few games in hand on the teams right above them, but that's not exactly good, and they do have a collective sub-.300 OBP.
Top Targets
For a guy coming off a serious injury, Ronald Acuna ($4,300) hasn't looked much worse for wear. He's slashed .350/.467/.610 with nine homers and four stolen bases. Sure, Acuna isn't running like he has in the past, but he's coming off a torn ACL! Yusei Kikuchi has a 2.79 ERA, but with a 3.91 FIP. On top of that, his road ERA is 4.47, and he won't be in Anaheim on Wednesday.
A catcher who can hit as well as most corner outfielders is a rare commodity, and that's what Will Smith ($3,300) is. He has an 1.017 OPS over the last three weeks, and on top of that he has an 1.012 OPS at home this season. I wanted Smith because not only does Sean Burke have a 5.82 ERA on the road, but righties have hit .276 against him. Of the Dodgers' right-handed hitters, Smith is the best option of the bunch.
Bargain Bats
It's a little surprising that Brice Turang ($3,100) has only stolen 17 bases after stealing 50 last year, especially given that he's improved from a .316 OBP to a .361 OBP. However, he does have five homers and 13 doubles, so his power has improved. Blade Tidwell has been tasked (for now) with replacing Griffin Canning in the rotation. He has a 10.13 ERA through three MLB appearances, and over the last two seasons he has a 5.44 ERA at Triple-A.
Thanks to steady improvement, Josh Smith ($2,900) has averaged .276 with seven home runs and eight stolen bases through 73 games this year. Unsurprisingly, the southpaw has been better against right-handed pitchers, but notably he also has a .934 OPS at home. Tomoyuki Sugano hasn't really appeared viable as an MLB pitcher after waiting until the end of his career to cross the Pacific. He has a 5.14 FIP, 5.28 K/9 rate, and 1.73 HR/9 rate.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Isaac Paredes ($3,900), Jose Altuve ($3,600), Yainer Diaz ($3,300)
Let's all take a moment to appreciate the Colorado Rockies. They uniformly employ below-average pitchers and play 81 games at the best hitter's park in baseball. Gomber is a lefty, so I have three righties in this stack. Oh, and just so you know, since 2023 the southpaw has a 6.20 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 rate at Coors.
Paredes has popped 17 homers in 81 games. He's also slugged .500 over the last three weeks as he heads into a series in Denver. Altuve's .257 batting average is unusually low for him, but he still has 13 homers and six stolen bases. While he's been much worse on the road this year, when the road park is Coors, I tend to not worry about that. He's no Will Smith, and you don't need a catcher on FanDuel, but consider Diaz in lieu of Smith if you trust Coors and the matchup enough for a stack. He's having the worst season of his career at the plate, but he has 20 extra-base hits, and he's slugged .458 against lefties.
Reds at Red Sox (Brayan Bello): Elly De La Cruz ($3,900), TJ Friedl ($2,800), Gavin Lux ($2,500)
While Bello has gotten his ERA down to 3.41, but his FIP is up to 4.41 this season. Also, his ERA this year at Fenway Park is 3.60. Lefties have hit .283 against Bello since 2023, so I have three southpaws in this stack.
This season has seen a real surge in power for De La Cruz, who has hit 18 home runs. He's not going to steal 67 bases again, but 22 steals in 86 games is still quite impressive. De La Cruz has actually been okay against lefties, but his .930 OPS versus righties is driving his production. Friedl has notched eight home runs and nine swiped bags. He has an .839 OPS against righties, but also a .904 OPS on the road. Though Lux only has four homers, he's averaged .270 and delivered 15 doubles. He does have an .807 OPS versus righties as well.
