Regan's Rumblings: Overvalued for 2015

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

As we've flipped the calendar to September, the general tone of this column will flip as well. We'll shift some, but not all, of the focus to 2015. Keeper decisions, prospects and over/under-valued players will get a look the next few weeks. This week, let's look at a handful of players who appear poised to be overvalued headed into 2015 drafts.

Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD)

Despite the recent miserable slump, Puig will probably do enough in September to land firmly in the first or second round in next spring's drafts. Look, we all know the talent is incredible and the personality is larger than life, but Puig is still learning the game. By all means, take him in the top 5, but only if your league awards points for baserunning mistakes, overthrown cutoff men and assorted other mental lapses. I remain a huge fan of his offensive upside, but this is still a guy with just 13 home runs and eight stolen bases. I do like the improvement in his BB% from 8.3 to 10.9 and the decrease in his K% from 22.5 to 19.3, but after last year's 19 homers and 11 stolen bases in 22 fewer games, I expected more. Physically, Puig has the tools to go 30/30 next season and make this paragraph look foolish, but before investing upwards of a first-round pick, I'd look for more consistency.

Manny Machado (3B-BAL)

I've seen Machado projected as a third-round pick on some lists, and that's borderline insanity. Perhaps he really is the reincarnation of a young Alex Rodriguez who is ready to compete for MVPs as a 22-year-old, but I see a guy who now has had back-to-back seasons end with knee injuries, and he dealt with back and groin issues this year as well. His plate discipline has shown some improvement, but a 5.6 BB% is still way too low, and he's probably not yet ready to show anything near 30-homer power over a full season. If Machado can play a full season without injury, develop a BB% more in the 8-percent range, and hit a few more flyballs, he'll deserve this sort of draft position, but I'm not ready to buy in for 2015.

If Mickey Mantle hadn't wrecked his knee ...

If Mark "The Bird" Fidrych had not been allowed to throw 24 complete games in his magical 1976 rookie season ...

The annals of baseball history are littered with players who made huge impacts, but could have been so much more if not for injuries. It may be ridiculous to even question Harper's ability to stay healthy given he's still just 21, but after logging just 118 games last year, Harper is going to finish with little more than 100 this year assuming a healthy September. Last year's .274/.368/.486 slash was ridiculously good for a 20-year-old facing big-league pitchers, but the expectations are so lofty, that many considered it a disappointment. He's continued the disappointment into this year until recently, totaling just three home runs through Aug. 6, but in last seven games, Harper tallied four long balls and now has a more respectable 27.3 AB/HR (10 HR), a number still off last year's 21.2. Harper has seen his strikeout rate skyrocket to 28.4 percent compared to last year's excellent 18.9 percent, so that could limit his batting average upside to .270 next year barring a turnaround to sub-20-percent marks. The power, though, is real, and seeing Harper blast 40 home runs in a season in the near future would not be a surprise. Maybe it is because I was so heavily invested this year, but before tabbing Harper in the first round again, I'd like to see a breakout season first.

Chris Davis (1B-BAL)

Coming off an awful 2014, I actually think Davis could be undervalued heading into 2015, but with a .193 BA and 32.7 K%, he really is approaching Adam Dunn territory. What gives me some hope for a rebound is his BABIP:

2011: .366
2012: .339
2013: .343
2014: .241

His 25.0-percent line drive rate is actually above his career average, so it's not like he's not making solid contact. The hits just aren't falling. Advanced analysis shows us that he's struggling much more this year against off-speed stuff while still making solid contact against fastballs. Pitchers, of course, see this and are taking advantage. From what I've observed watching Davis, they are still throwing fastballs, but not as many hittable fastballs. Davis will either chase the hard stuff and miss, hit it at someone, or be fooled by offspeed offerings. I'm not ready to relegate his career to Dunn/Rob Deer status just yet, but pitchers have adjusted. Will he?

Jose Reyes (SS-TOR)

Reyes looks likely to top 133 games played for just the second time since 2008, so while that's cause to celebrate, it's not something that should result in using a third-round pick on Reyes next year. This was once a guy who hit 19 home runs and stole 64 bags in a single season (2006), so this year's eight and 24 are more than a stone's throw from the 31-year-old's glory days. Both his BABIP (.312) and K% (11.6) are reasonable, but Reyes' walk rate has dipped to 6.3 percent (lowest since 2011), and he's showing little power with a .117 ISO. Shortstop has become rather shallow lately, as the consensus top two (Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez) have a checkered medical history and guys like Xander Bogaerts and Jean Segura haven't developed as hoped. Reyes is probably worth a mid-fourth-round pick, but I wouldn't go much higher.

Jacoby Ellsbury (OF-NYY)

Ellsbury looks to be in line for 150-plus games for the first time since his career year in 2011, but if I'm going to own a Yankees outfielder next year, it's going to be Brett Gardner. Both are or very soon will be 31, but Gardner has less mileage and can likely be had much cheaper in drafts despite the breakout 2014. Ellsbury is having a solid season batting .285/.345/.430 with 14 home runs and 37 stolen bases, but assuming history repeats itself, the steals will probably fall to the low 30s next year and continue down from there. He's not going to hit .321 again as he did in 2011, so no way am I investing a second-round pick.

Kris Bryant (3B-CHC)

I'm not sure what is more mind-boggling, Bryant's numbers (.325/.438/.661, 43 HR, and even 15 SB), or the fact that he's still in Triple-A. Perhaps the Cubs are trying to showcase Luis Valbuena for an offseason trade, or maybe they are looking to convert Bryant to the outfield over winter and don't want him playing that position yet in the big leagues. Or, if you want to be cynical, it's all about money, as delaying Bryant's arrival until June 2015 would have some advantages. Either way, he's going to make a big-league impact next year, and as is the case with a lot of these highly-touted prospects, he's probably going to be overvalued. These aren't major concerns given his slash line, but Bryant is striking out in 28.6 percent of his PA, and he's carrying a .370 BABIP. We've already seen Oscar Tavaras, Gregory Polanco and others struggle at the big-league level, so who's to say Bryant won't join them once he arrives? In keeper leagues, I'm going all-in, but in redraft formats, taking him say in eighth round could be a wasted pick.

Brian Dozier (SS-MIN)

One of my rules is simple: if I can't figure a guy out, I don't generally draft him, and I just can't figure out Dozier. Prior to August, Dozier had yet to hit over .246 in any month this season and he would up batting just .230/.262/.420 with a 23:3 K:BB in July, so expectations were low that his solid first half would be followed by a strong finish. Dozier then hit .280 with 25 walks in August, but after homering at least four times in each of the season's first four months, he tallied just one long ball in August. Overall despite a .244 average, Dozier has been fantasy gold, posting the sixth 20/20 season in Minnesota history while driving in 61 and scoring a whopping 98 runs. He's increased his BB% from last year's 8.2 to a stellar 12.9 this year. So bottom line: there is a lot of good here, but I'm still skeptical that he's going to hit anything over .240 and given he's 27, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of long-term upside with Dozier.

Jose Altuve (2B-HOU)

Altuve looks to be a lock to hit .300 with 35-plus stolen bases over the next 3-4 seasons, but I can see him being overdrafted. Yes, the batting title and 50-plus steals are going to look pretty good on stat sheets next spring, but I can see him being the second baseman off the board behind Robinson Cano in 2015, and that would be a mistake. He's unlikely to sustain a .359 BABIP and for a guy whose batted balls are historically half ground balls, a batting average regression looks to be a lock. It's unlikely Altuve will be more than a single-digit HR guy at any point in his career, and with his approach at the plate, I'm not seeing much of an improvement on a subpar 5.1 BB%. I'd rather wait a couple rounds on Dee Gordon or perhaps buy in on a Jedd Gyorko rebound season.

Johnny Cueto (SP-CIN)

After making just 11 starts due to injury last year, Cueto is 16-8 with a 2.26 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, making him perhaps the best NL starter not named Clayton Kershaw. Cueto hasn't been quite as dominant in his last three starts, posting a 4.19 ERA, but no real red flags lately, so I'd project a solid finish. That said, I'm just not sold on him making another 30-plus starts last year, perhaps due to my own bias of having owned him in multiple leagues last year, but it's like a marriage - let the other person down, and it takes time to rebuild that trust. It may be quick, it may take years, or it may never happen, but for Cueto and myself, we're just not there. There isn't such a thing as a no-risk pitcher, but I'm not picking Cueto in the second or third round when there will be so many safer and reliable hitters still on the board.

All pitchers not named Clayton Kershaw

Let's run down my projected top-10 starters for 2015:

1. Clayton Kershaw - Remember when Emmitt Smith was a no-brainer No. 1 fantasy football pick? This one is even easier.

2. Felix Hernandez - A lot of innings at a young age, but more than proving he can survive with less velocity.

3. Adam Wainwright - Age will become a factor soon, but not next year.

4. Madison Bumgarner - Might push him to No. 3 depending on the rest of the year.

5. Max Scherzer - Ranking could change based on where he ends up, but still a top-five guy.

6. David Price - Probably signs an extension to stay in Detroit. Good ballpark for him.

7. Chris Sale - Funky delivery concerns a thing of the past.

8. Stephen Strasburg - Potential to be No. 2 on this list, but just prefer the other seven.

9. Yu Darvish - He'll be fine, and no, he's not getting traded.

10. Johnny Cueto - See above.

If I had a draft today, I'd be comfortable taking Kershaw as high as No. 3 overall behind Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton, and yes, ahead of Miguel Cabrera. Beyond that, I'm not going anywhere near pitching until at least round four or five. Yes, I'd take Justin Upton over Adam Wainwright and Buster Posey over Max Scherzer, as examples. Using advanced metrics such as xFIP, SIERA, K%, BB%, etc. should allow you to field a competitive pitching staff after loading up on hitters early.

Players to be Wary Of

Jose Abreu (1B-CHW) - Just four HR after the break, but a .380 BA. Not sure he's a top-10 pick.

Ian Kinsler (2B-DET) - Just .237 post-ASB and overall .314 OBP far and away the worst of his career.

George Springer (OF-HOU) - Love the power, but a 33 percent strikeout rate is a huge red flag.

Victor Martinez (DH-DET) - Maybe taking the Ortiz career arc, but just as likely he gets hurt and declines quickly.

Nelson Cruz (OF-BAL) - Cruz is hitting .181 since the ASB, but he's going to get a multi-year deal. That won't end well.

Marcell Ozuna (OF-MIA) - Nice power, but K% increased from 19.6 to 27.4 year over year.