DraftKings NFL Week 6: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Jonathan Taylor projects well for Sunday's 10-game NFL slate on DraftKings, but RotoWire's Ryan Belongia explains why fading the Colts running back might be the right move in GPPs.
DraftKings NFL Week 6: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy
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Sunday's Week 6 slate on DraftKings includes 10 games and features Cowboys-Panthers with the highest total. Injuries to Bucky Irving and Chuba Hubbard, among others, means another week of cheap value at running back. It will come in handy with Puka Nacua priced up.

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and follow ownership when in doubt. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad 
Implied Total
Home TeamHome 
Implied Total
47.5Arizona Cardinals20.25Indianapolis Colts27.25
44.5Los Angeles Rams26Baltimore Ravens18.5
37.5Cleveland Browns16Pittsburgh Steelers21.5
47.5Seattle Seahawks23Jacksonville Jaguars24.5
43.5Los Angeles Chargers24Miami Dolphins19.5
49.5Dallas Cowboys26.25Carolina Panthers23.25
45.5New England Patriots24.5New Orleans Saints21
41.5Tennessee Titans18Las Vegas Raiders23.5
47.5San Francisco 49ers22.25Tampa Bay Buccaneers25.25
44.5Cincinnati Bengals15.25Green Bay Packers29.25

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

With Chuba Hubbard ruled out again, Dowdle will make his second start as a Panther and have a point to prove against his old team. Last week against Miami, he exploded for 206 yards on 23 attempts and added three catches on four targets. The Panthers have a favorable matchup at home in the week's highest-totaled game. If you aren't sold on Dowdle, there's plenty of other value to consider. Javonte Williams ($6,400), Rachaad White ($6,000) and Jaylen Warren ($5,400) all project well. Tampa Bay will be without Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which means White will be heavily involved in all facets of the offense. He's coming off 23.1 DraftKings points after rushing for two TDs and catching four passes against Seattle last week.

Olave continues to see massive volume as Spencer Rattler peppers him with targets, posting at least six catches and 10 targets in four of five games. He's also yet to see a salary increase and will be a popular option in cash-games until he does. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Drake Maye at NO ($5,900)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. SEA ($5,100)

RB Christian McCaffrey at TB ($8,400)

RB De'Von Achane vs. LAC ($7,800)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. CIN ($7,300)

RB Javonte Williams at CAR ($6,400)

RB Rachaad White vs. SF ($6,000)

RB Rico Dowdle vs. DAL ($5,800)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. CLE ($5,400)

WR Puka Nacua at BAL ($8,700)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at JAX ($7,600)

WR George Pickens at CAR ($6,800)

WR Jaylen Waddle vs. LAC ($6,100)

WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. DAL ($6,000)

WR Stefon Diggs at NO ($5,800)

WR Chris Olave vs. NE ($5,100)

TE Trey McBride at IND ($5,500)

TE Jake Ferguson at CAR ($5,300)

TE Tyler Warren vs. ARI ($4,900)

TE Tucker Kraft vs. CIN ($4,700)

TE Michael Mayer vs. TEN ($3,100), if Brock Bowers is out

TE Hunter Long vs. SEA ($2,500)

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. CIN ($3,700)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CLE ($3,600)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. TEN ($3,200)

D/ST Cleveland Browns at PIT ($2,500)

D/ST Tennessee Titans at LV ($2,400)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. LAC ($2,200)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (26.25) at Carolina Panthers (23.25)

COWBOYS

Dallas games have been fruitful for fantasy points all season, as they rank top five in combined plays and total points. Their offense plays fast, and they haven't been able to stop anybody on defense; they rank third in EPA per play and 32nd in EPA per play allowed. It's been a great recipe for game stacks. Dak Prescott ($6,500) is playing at an elite level despite missing top WR CeeDee Lamb, throwing for four touchdowns against the Jets last week as he topped 26 DraftKings points for the third time in his last four. He's a leverage option for tournaments, with the field expected to favor cheaper value at the position. George Pickens ($6,800) and Jake Ferguson ($5,300) have really picked up the slack in the absence of Lamb. Pickens has at least one touchdown in four consecutive games while Ferguson leads all TEs in receptions and has three scores in his last two. Recent price hikes should keep their ownership in check. Javonte Williams ($6,400) will be among the most popular RBs; with six TDs already and coming off a season-high 135 rushing yards, he's been a revelation. I'd avoid pairing him with Prescott, however. Ryan Flournoy ($3,600) can be considered for large-field GPPs after catching six of nine targets for 114 last week. He'll be involved again with KaVontae Turpin not expected back. 

PANTHERS

It's been a rough start for Carolina but hopefully a matchup against the porous Dallas defense will bring the best out of them. The Cowboys are allowing the league's third-highest completion rate, second-highest passer-rating and highest yards per attempt. That should be good news for Bryce Young ($4,800), who is inconsistent but has shown glimpses and is priced cheap enough to take a chance on. If Chuba Hubbard is ruled out again, Rico Dowdle ($5,800) will project as one of the top values on the board after running wild against Miami last week. Dowdle took 23 carries for 206 yards against the Dolphins while catching three passes and finding the end zone. Rookie first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000) looks the part, coming off six catches for 73 yards, and he's been targeted at least eight times in all five games. The nice thing about the Panthers is their production is condensed and there's really no need to consider anyone else. Ja'Tavion Sanders ($3,200) is back from injury and expected to start at TE. He's shown some upside in the past if you're looking for a punt. 

  • Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + RB Dowdle + TE Ferguson or WR Pickens
  • Favorite Panthers Stack: QB Young + WR McMillan + TE Ferguson or RB Williams

New England Patriots (24.5) at New Orleans Saints (21)

PATRIOTS

Fresh off the best game of his career, Drake Maye ($5,900) will be looking to build on his incredible performance in last week's win over the Bills when the Pats travel to New Orleans in what looks like a great spot for fantasy points. Saints games are about as up-tempo as it gets, as they rank first in neutral pace, second in no-huddle rate and their games are second in combined snaps. Maye projects as one of the best values among QBs and will be popular in all formats. His targets mostly condense around Stefon Diggs ($5,800) and Hunter Henry ($4,300). Diggs looks particularly good after torching the Bills for 146 yards on 10 catches. He won't find a better opportunity than Sunday to score his first touchdown as a Patriot. Henry will be a leverage option with the field expected to spend up for the likes of McBride, Ferguson, Warren and Kraft. 

SAINTS

Spencer Rattler ($4,700) will be full of confidence, coming off a stellar showing in the first win of his career. I probably wouldn't roster him in single-entry or 3-max tournaments but he scrambles enough and is cheap enough to be considered for the large-field GPPs. Chris Olave ($5,100) caught seven of 11 targets last week as he drew double-digit looks for the fourth time in five games. He projects as one of the better value options at WR. Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) just took four catches for 114 yards and a score. He's capable of hitting those heights every week and is usually a fraction as popular as Olave. Alvin Kamara ($5,700) is banged up and New England are tough against the run. There are better options at RB for similar salary. 

  • Favorite Patriots Stack: QB Maye + WR Diggs + WR Olave or WR Shaheed
  • Favorite Saints Stack: QB Rattler + WR Diggs + WR Olave or WR Shaheed

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Baker Mayfield + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Emeka Egbuka

QB Justin Herbert + RB De'Von Achane + WR Ladd McConkey or WR Keenan Allen

QB Justin Herbert + WR Jaylen Waddle + WR Ladd McConkey or WR Keenan Allen

QB Daniel Jones + WR Michael Pittman + TE Trey McBride

QB Daniel Jones + WR Marvin Harrison + TE Tyler Warren

QB Sam Darnold + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + WR Brian Thomas

QB Geno Smith + WR Calvin Ridley + WR Jakobi Meyers or WR Tre Tucker +/- TE Michael Mayer

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + WR Brian Thomas or WR Travis Hunter

High-Priced Heroes

What else can you say about Nacua at this point? He looks unstoppable, on pace to break records and smashing on DraftKings every week. His 24.5 fantasy points last week on 10 catches for 85 yards and a TD was actually his lowest output in five games this season. He's had at least 10 catches in four as no defense has had an answer. There's enough value at the other positions to afford him, and I'll be prioritizing him again this week. 

McCaffrey's numbers as a receiver are incredible: he's had at least six catches in every game and at least 82 yards in three straight while San Francisco has been shorthanded. Sunday's matchup against the Tampa Bay pass funnel is another spot that looks good for the passing game, and specifically McCaffrey, as the 49ers remain without George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall. Expect them to lean heavily on McCaffrey, who's pass-catching floor has helped him score at least 22 DraftKings points in every game this season. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,600); RB Josh Jacobs ($7,300)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

Nothing against Taylor here, fading him is about the salary savings and opportunity cost. There are plenty of good options at RB for cheaper, and I favor saving money at the position in order to spend up for the likes of Nacua and Smith-Njigba. I also slightly prefer McCaffrey to Taylor, based on the receiving floor, if I'm spending up at RB. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

I wasn't sure if Diggs still had that dog him, but after watching his dominant performance against the Bills on Sunday night, I'm sold going forward. He had 10 catches on 12 targets for 146 yards, looking fast and explosive. I'm sure he had some extra motivation up against his old team, but now he'll have motivation to score his first touchdown as a Patriot and he couldn't ask for a better spot. The Saints play faster than any team in the league and don't have much of a defense. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. SEA ($5,100)

QB Bryce Young vs. DAL ($4,800)

QB Spencer Rattler vs. NE ($4,700)

RB Quinshon Judkins at PIT ($5.900)

RB Rico Dowdle vs. DAL ($5,800)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. CLE ($5,400)

WR Calvin Ridley at LV ($4,900)

WR Tre Tucker vs. TEN ($4,800)

WR Travis Hunter vs. SEA ($4,700)

WR Cooper Kupp at JAX ($4,600)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. NE ($4,600)

WR Ryan Flournoy at CAR ($3,600)

TE David Njoku at PIT ($3,500)

TE Michael Mayer vs. TEN ($3,100), if Brock Bowers is out

TE Hunter Long vs. SEA ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

If Bowers is ruled out, Michael Mayer ($3,100) becomes a viable option in all formats after he sat out two weeks following a concussion in Week 3. 

Kamara is listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury in practice this week. If he can't go, I'd have some interest in Kendre Miller ($4,700) as a tournament option based on the cheap salary and the fact he's looked good in limited work as the No. 2. 

Weather

  • Possible rain/wind in Baltimore for Puka Nacua's matchup against the Ravens. Check the forecast closer to kickoff if concerned. 
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
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