Weekly Preview: John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run
Silvis, IL

The PGA Tour heads to Illinois for another edition of the John Deere Classic.

I mentioned this past week that we are probably in the worst lull on the PGA Tour schedule, but even in the bad times we can find a silver lining. That came in the form of Rickie Fowler, who finally got back on top of the mountain and picked up another PGA Tour win. 

That's the good news. The bad news is we might be in for a rough week. Not only is the field extremely light, but we're already peaking ahead to the Open Championship, and the fact that the Scottish Open is now on the PGA Tour schedule only makes us look ahead even more. 

The poor John Deere Classic has never been in an enviable spot on the schedule, and with elevated events now in play, the likelihood of a superstar showing up in Silvis seems farfetched. But we know what we're getting and just because we don't have a lot of firepower doesn't mean an interesting storyline won't appear out of thin air. We have a ton of course history to look into, and that at least helps when it comes to preparing for the days ahead.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

J.T. Poston shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Emiliano Grillo and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

FAVORITES

Russell Henley (14-1)

Well, I certainly didn't see this coming, even with the lighter field. We have a bigger name -- Cameron Young -- and a guy playing better -- Denny McCarthy -- yet Henley gets the nod as the favorite. The difference maker appears to be Henley's track record here, which isn't outstanding but is pretty good. Henley has finished no worse than T27 in three appearances and he posted a runner-up in 2019.

Denny McCarthy (16-1)

If McCarthy had better history here he'd be the favorite, but that's okay, he's getting better odds this way. McCarthy has played at a high level for most of this season, but he continues to come up just short. He nearly won at the Memorial and held the 36-hole lead at the Travelers. He's getting close, and while it wouldn't be the same as winning an elevated event, a victory would still be a big deal. Look for a solid effort from McCarthy.

Cameron Young (16-1)

If this event were a few months ago Young would have been a heavy favorite, but after a hot start to the season he hasn't accomplished much. Young appears to have everything necessary to win on the PGA Tour, but he hasn't put it all together yet. We were saying the same thing about Scottie Scheffler as recently as 18 months ago, so it's not time to give up on Young. Expecting a win this week seems unreasonable, though.

THE NEXT TIER

Ludvig Aberg (28-1)

Among the late rookie crop we have still yet to determine whether Aberg or Sam Bennett will have more success, but Aberg has the early lead. He's playing against a weaker field this week, so he could really get the jump on Bennett with another strong showing. Can he win though? There aren't many guys standing in his way, so if he gets off to a hot start he certainly could.

Adam Schenk (30-1)

Schenk might have the best combination of course history and current form in the entire field. That form, however, is tough to count on with Schenk, as he has been all over the place this season. In his past 11 events he missed six cuts, but among the five times he played the weekend he finished worse than T7 just once. The upside is there, which makes him a great option for a win bet.

Eric Cole (33-1)

I thought about putting Adam Hadwin here based off his performance in Detroit, but I'm not sure Hadwin will be able to carry the momentum to Illinois. It would be one thing if this were a bigger event, but it might be hard to get up for this one a week after nearly besting Fowler and Collin Morikawa. Instead, I'll take Cole, who has been steady for most of the season and could really thrive in an event like this.

LONG SHOTS

Sepp Straka (55-1)

Straka is the fourth highest ranked player in the field, yet he's buried down here. That seems strange to me, and perhaps that's due to his history at TPC Deere Run, but as I mentioned earlier, there aren't a lot of guys on hand with great track records who are still near the peak of their talents. Straka might not be at his best, but he played some good golf at certain points over the past couple months and is a top-50 golfer in the world.

Patton Kizzire (120-1)

It's been a while since Kizzire won on the PGA Tour, but he has been in the winner's circle, which is always nice when you're wagering on a guy with odds this high.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Denny McCarthy - I've been touting McCarthy for over a year, and although it's taken a while for his game to catch up to the hype I was supplying, it looks like he's finally putting it all together. Beating a weak field seems easier than it is, though. McCarthy will have to be mentally sharp to keep his edge.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Eric Cole - What looked like a fluke early in the season has turned into something else altogether, as Cole just continues to produce. I'm not sure if a lot of OAD players will be on him this week, but you should be. This is the perfect event for Cole. He doesn't have enough stature to look past it like some others might.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Sepp Straka- I initially thought Straka would be more popular, but after seeing the odds, maybe he will sneak under the radar. Straka has some upside, so if you feel that he might be overlooked he could be a sound play.

Buyer Beware: Cameron Young - I'll start by stating that I'm glad Young is playing this week. It's always good to have the new crop of stars playing in events like these. The problem is that Young is just way off. He recorded just one top-50 result over his last seven starts. Something went awry after the Masters, and he hasn't been close to his best since. It's best to just wait on him for now.

This Week: Sepp Straka - As was the case with Fowler last week, the best pick on the board -- McCarthy -- is not available to me, so I'm going a little further down the line. With any luck, a lot of people will be on Henley and a few others and Straka can really pay off.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Denny McCarthy ($12,000)
Middle Range: Eric Cole ($10,500)
Lower Range: Zach Johnson ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Zach Johnson - He's not the same player he once was, but he hasn't missed a cut here since 2007, and I don't see him missing one this week. Johnson hit a rough patch a few years ago, but he's still capable of playing well on certain tracks, and this -- not far from where he grew up -- is one of them.

Previous Results