Weekly Preview: U.S. Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
Los Angeles, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Los Angeles for the third major of the year.

It has been quite the week in golf, from the merger news to the shot heard around Canada. There's plenty to talk about other than the U.S. Open, but we're here to talk about majors, so that's what we're going to do. 

As we approach the U.S. Open, several storylines will be focused on the course. The top one is undoubtedly Brooks Koepka, who went from this generation's best major golfer to a guy who looked done and is now once again a beast in the major championships. It's funny how a couple events can change the perception of a golfer. Koepka was an afterthought after his move to LIV, but after winning the PGA Championship, we're back to discussing how many majors he can win. It's hard to say how many he ends up with, but he has that look again, the one where he's completely at ease during the biggest events while most everyone else is scrambling to keep calm. One person who's also at ease in any given major is Scottie Scheffler. The big question surrounding him this week is of course the putter. Scheffler's ball striking over the past couple months has been legendary, but the flat stick has let him down. Will that pattern continue?

There are more talking points -- some of which we will get into later -- but it feels like Koepka and Scheffler are the main attractions and it's likely to stay that way through the weekend.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Matt Fitzpatrick shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (7-1)

I'll start by stating that these odds are a little puzzling for a major. When you consider the rejuvenated Koepka is on hand this price is even more outrageous, but it just goes to show how well Scheffler is hitting the ball right now. If he continues to struggle on the greens he's not going to leave Los Angeles victorious. There's simply too much competition. While I do think Scheffler will wind up the winner, I'd have a hard time laying down money on a number like this. I might wait to see if the odds improve after the event starts. You don't necessarily need Scheffler to get off to a poor start either. If Koepka or Rahm starts fast, you might be able to get Scheffler at closer to 10-1.

Jon Rahm (11-1)

While Scheffler has been steady and reliable all season, Rahm has been anything but. He's been great and he's been terrible, and you never know which one you're going to get. That's not exactly the resume of someone you want for a OAD pool, but it's fine for a win ticket. There's no difference between a runner-up and a missed cut when you place a win bet, so Rahm actually looks like a decent play.

Brooks Koepka (12-1)

I'm a little surprised that Koepka isn't listed ahead of Rahm given that the former has been a factor in both majors this year, but the fact that he isn't is just a bonus for anyone making a play on Koepka. If Koepka is truly back to being the guy he was a few years ago, you're getting a gift at this price. The course is long, and while you will have the U.S. Open rough, it didn't grow as well as the USGA hoped. As such, by my estimation, distance off the tee is going to be paramount and Koepka is not lacking there.

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (19-1)

Everyone seems to think that Schauffele is going to win a major at some point, and if that's the case, it will probably be this one, as his track record on USGA setups is pretty impressive. Schauffele has six U.S. Open starts under his belt and has never finished worse than T14. Yes, all of those results came on different courses, but after six showings like that it's pretty clear Schauffele excels in these conditions. As for this week, there's no reason to think anything will be different. He will be hanging around on the weekend, and it's just a matter of whether or not he can close this time.

Jordan Spieth (24-1)

Spieth qualifies as my "hunch" play this week, as I can't really pinpoint why I like him but just have a feeling he will do well. I'm not alone either, as his odds jumped from 25-1 to 20-1 on Tuesday before settling here. That could just be the public jumping on a familiar name, but it's not like Spieth has been popular with bettors this season. If his odds are smaller than what he opened at, there's probably a good reason for that.

Tyrrell Hatton (32-1)

I'm always weary of golfers that come in with too much steam, and that might be the case with Hatton. Still, it is hard to ignore how well he played over the past couple months. Hatton doesn't have the greatest track record at this event, but when you're getting a price like this, you aren't going to get a player with a perfect resume.

LONG SHOTS

Rickie Fowler (48-1)

This might not make sense, but I'm going with the chalk when it comes to this week's long shots. In other words, I'm taking some popular sleepers, and the first is Fowler, who has really turned his game around over the past 12 months. He's not at the level he was when he was winning consistently on the PGA Tour, but he's back contending again. Wouldn't it be something if he won a major at this stage of his career?

Shane Lowry (55-1)

Another popular sleeper -- both this week and just about every time a major rolls around -- is Lowry. The Irishman is a major winner who thrives on tough tracks. He's also got the skills off the tee to contend with the likes of Scheffler and Koepka, so if everything falls into place, Lowry just might pick up his second major win.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Brooks Koepka - Perhaps the only ones left with Koepka are those who were skeptical of him heading into the PGA Championship. That was actually a lot of us, so I'd imagine he will be among the most popular this week. I can't argue with this pick, as he's currently in the mix for my own selection.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Xander Schauffele - There will be a lot of OAD players on Koepka and Scheffler, and the rest of the selections will be spread out among guys like Schauffele, Rahm, Spieth, Finau, etc. Among that bunch, Schauffele is probably the best pick because of his consistency at USGA setups.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Rickie Fowler - When it comes to majors, most OAD players are sticking with a top-10 option. Fowler does not fit that bill, so he likely will not be too popular. Fowler has been pretty reliable this year, though, so even though his chances to win are slim he will likely play well and bring home a decent check.

Buyer Beware: Collin Morikawa - Just as I like Spieth because of the way his odds have shifted, I'm fading Morikawa because his odds have dropped significantly from Monday to Tuesday. In this case though, there's reason for concern, as last we saw Morikawa he withdrew from The Memorial. Whenever there is a significant drop in price, it's usually a result of some news the public isn't aware of yet.

This Week: Brooks Koepka - This was a tougher decision than you might imagine because I wanted to stay away from the pack, but there's only one opportunity other than this one to use Koepka and I don't fancy him at the Open Championship, so I'm essentially forced to use him here. The other player I considered was Spieth, who I like because he may be lightly used.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,100)
Middle Range: Shane Lowry ($10,000)
Lower Range: Denny McCarthy ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Brooks Koepka - There are only two more chances to use Koepka in this format as well, so we might as well go for it here. I'm much more confident about Koepka making the cut at LACC than at the Open Championship, so this is a fairly easy call.

Previous Results