Weekly Preview: Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor for another edition of the Valspar Championship.

Before we get to that, we have to take a look back at the latest elevated event. This time around, the elite golfer that won was Scottie Scheffler, just like in Phoenix a few weeks ago. Unlike previous elevated events, the leaderboard this past weekend was not loaded with star power, but that's more a reflection of the venue than anything else. There was a lot of talk entering the week about why the results for the best players are all over the place at TPC Sawgrass, and the easiest answer is plain and simple, the course penalizes shots that are off line. There's no recovering from the water, and while Sawgrass can look really easy on a calm day, if the wind is blowing it's more akin to an Open Championship situation that brings everyone into the mix. One man that didn't crack all week was Scheffler, who again looks like the best player on the planet. While that's hard to argue, remember that this changes fast, as after one round at Bay Hill Jon Rahm was destined to make $30 million this season.

As for this week's tournament, we've got an non-elevated event, so you know the field will be lighter. Luckily it's not as thin as some others, so we've got that going for us. Additionally, the events now outside the top tier act like showcases for those who aren't elite, as they have a chance to earn a golden ticket into the elevated events. So, while there may not be many big names on hand, the intensity will be there, as the guys in the middle compete for the privilege of playing for the big bucks in the future.
                              
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Sam Burns shot a final-round 69 on his way to a playoff victory over Davis Riley.

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (10-1)

Right off the bat we're seeing a different type of non-elevated event, as Thomas leads the list and does so at a reasonable price. I rarely advise taking anyone with odds right around these, but given the caliber of player Thomas is and the field he is competing against, I did think about it a bit. Thomas' track record here is solid, with four top-20s in five starts, but his form is in question at the moment, which means it's probably wise to pass on him at this price.

Jordan Spieth (12-1)

Spieth has been playing like frozen yogurt a lot lately. Good, but not quite the real thing. Spieth has flashed on the leaderboard from time to time this season, but he always ends up fading in the end. He just doesn't have that extra gear right now. The thing is, he's proven that's something he can do in a flash. Spieth's track record here is solid as well, with a win in 2015 and three additional top-10s over his five starts. At this number he's worth a look.

Matt Fitzpatrick (15-1)

Fitzpatrick's odds are based solely on his name, as he's not playing well and doesn't have much of a track record at Innisbrook. I suppose with the field being not particularly deep, the oddsmakers have to put a reasonable number on Fitzpatrick, otherwise they're liable to get crushed. Right now, though, there are no signs he's about to turn it around.

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (16-1)

Like this past week, I felt the need to add the player just outside the top three on the odds chart on one of my lists, even though he's not a "mid-tier" player. Why did I need to get Burns on the list? Well, he's only won this event the past two years. He hasn't played well this year, which is why he's not among the favorites. Still, when you've got a feel for this course like Burns does, you have to take a long look.

Tommy Fleetwood (24-1)

One thing that TPC Sawgrass reveals is who is actually playing well. Nobody has a real advantage on that course, so if you happen to fare fine on that course for four days, that means you are locked in. Fleetwood made one big mistake Sunday, but he played well for the better part of the tournament. He has played this event just once, but that resulted in a T16 this past year. He knows how to win, so this price looks pretty tempting.

Adam Hadwin (24-1)

Hadwin's history here is all over the place, but when he's on he's a threat to win. He won this event in 2017 and finished T7 this past year. His track record here is too erratic to make him an option in survivor leagues, but he's the perfect candidate for a win ticket. It would be nice if his odds were a little higher, but perhaps with the firepower at the top his price will go up a bit as the week goes on.

LONG SHOTS

Ben Griffin (45-1)

Like Fleetwood, Griffin is playing well right now and managed to get through four rounds at Sawgrass in pretty good shape. Perhaps this is the start of something big for Griffin. This is his first appearance in this event, but the same was true this past week and he did just fine. At this price he's worth a look.

Will Gordon (55-1)

If you didn't blink during the television broadcast of THE PLAYERS Championship, you might have noticed Gordon's name pop up on the leaderboard. Sure, the end result was a T54, but Gordon appears to be getting closer to breaking through on the PGA Tour. Would a win this week be totally unexpected? Of course, but that's why he's down here, and trust me, stranger things have happened. He was at 80-1 at one point, so I'm not the only one who believes.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sam Burns - We're back to using our non-elevated strategy, which pretty much means no elite players. Burns was considered pretty close to elite this past season, but his play this year has left a lot to be desired, which is why I'm expecting him to be quite popular here. Be warned, though -- this is not the pick to make if you want to make up ground.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tommy Fleetwood - Fleetwood is in the perfect sweet spot for these non-elevated events. He hasn't had his top form in recent years, so most OAD players won't consider him with a lot of money on the line, but he's a perfect fit for an event like this. He will likely be pretty popular after getting plenty of air time this past weekend.

Lightly-owned Pick: David Lingmerth - I debated between Lingmerth and Gordon as my final sleeper and ultimately decided that Lingmerth is the more stable one of the two, so he will grab this spot while Gordon takes the one aboave. Lingmerth's track record here is not good -- that's why he's 80-1 -- but his form is solid and he has had a lot of nice results this season.

Buyer Beware: Matt Fitzpatrick - I suppose it's a bit overkill to put Fitzpatrick here After all, my thoughts on him above were pretty clear. In case you didn't get the message, though, not only is he a poor choice for a win ticket, he's also a subpar OAD option. He has reached the weekend after each of his missed cuts this season, but his best effort against a full field in 2023 was a T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This Week: Adam Hadwin - Unlike this past week, there aren't a lot of options I'm excited about, but there were a couple I considered. I thought about going with Fleetwood, and while I do think he will play well, I don't want to be in a pack again and I have a feeling Fleetwood will be the second option behind Burns. Hadwin has had success here, and he played well at THE PLAYERS on his way to a T13.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sam Burns ($11,700)
Middle Range: Ben Griffin ($10,200)
Lower Range: Matthew NeSmith ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Sam Burns - I got lucky this past week, as Thomas had the cut line come back to him. But, hey, a win is a win. This week I shouldn't need much luck, as Burns should make the weekend with room to spare. If you're simply trying to stay alive this is the obvious pick, but some people like to take the contrarian route and hope the "obvious" pick goes down and takes a majority of their league mates with them. In that case I'd use Lingmerth, who has not missed a cut here in four tries.

Previous Results