This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 297 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC 2024 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Sean Strickland (28-5-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (20-2-0)
DK Salaries: Strickland ($8,200), Du Plessis ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Strickland (-140), Du Plessis (+120)
This fight is going to be fun, and the intensity was really raised following an in-crowd brawl between the two at UFC 296 in mid-December.
In many ways, du Plessis is directly responsible for Strickland being UFC Middleweight Champion. The former was due to fight Israel Adesanya for the title last September but was unable to compete due to injury. The company wanted to keep Izzy on the card given it was taking place in Australia, and Strickland got the call. The rest is history.
Strickland's performance in that fight was remarkable. Never before have we seen an opponent befuddle Adesanya the way Sean did. Strickland is difficult to prepare for because he's content to sit back, work behind his jab and counter his opposition. Yet, he pushed the pace the entire time against Izzy, and the now-former champion had no answers. The total strike count was 137-94 in Strickland's favor in what was a 25-minute kickboxing match. It was a truly flawless performance from a guy that virtually no one, myself included, thought had any chance of winning.
The former KSW Welterweight Champion, du Plessis has won each of his first six UFC bouts, including three straight stoppage wins over Darren Till, Derek Brunson and Robert Whittaker. The first two, whatever, but a knockout of Whittaker means you're doing something right and probably deserve a title shot. Dricus has massive power, and unlike Strickland, is not content to point fight. He'll be pushing the pace, seeking the finish.
Strickland's cardio is legendary. He just keeps doing his thing without a care in the world. Du Plessis is one of those rare fighters that looks like he's constantly exhausted inside the Octagon, but it's more a body language thing than anything else. He keeps a high pace, and I expect him to do just fine over the course of five rounds, if needed.
Du Plessis is the more likely of the two to wrestle, averaging 2.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Strickland's takedown defense (84 percent) is outstanding. He's an underrated athlete with the ability to hold his own on the mat if needed.
I keep going back to the Whittaker fight. I assumed Dricus would be dominated there, but he thrived. Now, as I mentioned earlier, Strickland is a very difficult opponent because of his style, but I think du Plessis' aggressiveness will help open up some holes for him to land combinations. He definitely has the edge in pure power. Ultimately, this is essentially a pick 'em, as everything indicates. I'll take the slight underdog.
UFC 297 PICK: Du Plessis
Co-Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship
Raquel Pennington (15-9-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pennington ($7,600), Bueno Silva ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Pennington (+135), Bueno Silva (-160)
This is not a misprint. This is an actual UFC title fight in the year 2024. Amanda Nunes retired last June following a thrashing of Irene Aldana and vacated the belt in the process. Pennington and Bueno Silva will fight here for the title, with the winner almost certainly getting former champion Julianna Pena next.
Pennington has won five in a row, so technically she's probably deserving of a title shot. Three of those five wins came at featherweight, and they all came against lesser competition (Ketlen Vieira, Aspen Ladd, Macy Chiasson, Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau), but the company simply doesn't have any other options at the moment. Now 35 years of age, Pennington is highly unlikely to hold the belt for even one title defense if she wins here.
Bueno Silva has won four straight, although her most recent win over Holly Holm in July was changed to a no-contest after the Brazilian tested positive for ritalinic acid in a pre-fight test. Bueno Silva said it was the result of the ADHD medication she was taking. Apparently no one thinks it was that big of a deal, because her suspension was only a few months, and she was cleared to fight again in late-November.
Pennington is a pure brawler. She's plenty tough, has limited power in her hands and excels at making it an ugly fight. She has one career knockout in 24 pro fights.
Bueno Silva is entirely reliant on her submission game for success. She got Holm out of there with a ninja choke when Holly got lazy and left her neck exposed in an exchange along the fence, and before that Mayra tapped out Lina Lansberg with a kneebar and Stephanie Egger with an armbar.
I figured Holm would just lay waste to Bueno Silva in the stand-up. Which is what happened for as long as the fight lasted. Pennington doesn't possess anywhere near the technical striking skills of Holm. If she did, I would just back her like I did Holly and hope Raquel doesn't leave a limb exposed and get choked out.
As is, I have less than zero idea what to think of this fight. Seriously, I can't even remember a UFC title fight with more potential randomness than this one.
Thus, it's an easy pick, believe it or not. I have zero confidence in either woman in either the short or long term, meaning Pennington is the pick simply because the potential payoff is larger.
UFC 297 PICK: Pennington
Welterweight
Neil Magny (28-12-0) v. Mike Malott (10-1-1)
DK Salaries: Magny ($6,900), Malott ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Magny (+275), Mallot (-345)
Regular readers of this column now I have been a Magny supporter for quite a while, but now 36 years of age and having alternated losses and wins in his past six fights, it feels as if he's in the spot to serve as a stepping stone for Malott. Or, at a minimum, to see how legitimate his opponent is in terms of future potential. Neil has always been excellent at making adjustments on a fight-by-fight basis, which is more important than ever given his advanced age. I think there's some gas left in the tank, but we saw what happened last August when he was matched up against a rising young star in Ian Garry.
Malott, a native of nearby Burlington, Ontario, gets the hometown call here and will have the crowd firmly in his corner. I've been impressed with what I've seen and think there's some real potential here, but the truth of the matter is Malott has a dozen pro fights under his belt at age 32.
Yes, he's 3-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins, but those victories came against Adam Fugitt, Mickey Gall and Yohan Lainesse. For comparison's sake, Magny has had UFC bouts against, among others, Garry, Gilbert Burns, Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Michael Chiesa, Li Jingliang, Carlos Condit, Rafael dos Anjos, etc. The gap in terms of competition level faced is as wide as the Atlantic Ocean.
There's also the fact Magny will enter with a two-inch edge in height and insane seven-inch edge in reach. Neil is also an elite wall-and-stall guy, meaning he can pin his opponent up against the fence, appear as if he's staying busy and win rounds in the process. I thought that's where he could give Garry issues, but that strategy becomes more difficult to employ as you age.
Malott is the pick simply because he's the young, up-and-coming fighter in a friendly environment, while Magny is the aging veteran that appears to have clearly lost a step (or two, or three), but I don't like the price tag. At all. Maybe Malott will blow through Neil without issue, but I'm not interested in spending north of $9K, the second largest price tag on the entire card, to find out.
UFC 297 PICK: Malott
Middleweight
Chris Curtis (30-10-0, 1NC) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Curtis ($8,500), Barriault ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Curtis (-190), Barriault (+160)
Set to turn 37 years of age in mid-July, "The Action Man" (that's Curtis), is running out of time to make an impact at 185 pounds. He began his UFC run with three straight wins, including a knockout of rising star Brendan Allen, but has just a lone victory (1-2, 1NC) in his past four bouts. This certainly seems like a good matchup for Curtis to get back on track, but it's far from a guarantee given what we have seen from him of late.
Barriault lost his first three fights with the company, so the fact he's still employed nearly four years later and entering his twelfth UFC bout is quite impressive. The Canadian's run has gone about as expected, handling lesser competition and struggling against better opponents. Barriault is plenty entertaining to watch, but I certainly don't expect a prolonged winning streak forthcoming.
This will be a kickboxing match for as long as it lasts. Neither man has any ground game to speak off. They've combined for exactly two submission victories -- one each -- in 64 combined professional fights. If either man suddenly turns into a mat wizard, more power to them.
Both men are willing to eat a strike in order to land two of their own. It's become a problem for both, as they just absorb too much volume on the feet to defeat quality opposition.
Curtis is quicker and should have a technical edge. He has better footwork than Barriault and is better at changing angles.
Marc-Andre also has a huge pure power advantage. We've seen Curtis pinned along the fence in the past where he absorbed countless, unanswered shots. He almost always is able to fight his way through those difficult situations, but that's a recipe for potential disaster given the authority with which Barriault throws.
For two guys that almost always find themselves in a brawl, both are insanely durable, being stopped via strikes one time each in their pro careers. This has the look of a 15-minute, back-and-forth brawl in which both men will have their moments.
I'll take the favorite due to the technical edge Curtis possesses, but Marc-Andre is a live underdog given his big power and how often Chris gets hit.
UFC 297 PICK: Curtis
Featherweight
Arnold Allen (19-2-0) v. Movsar Evloev (17-0-0)
DK Salaries: Allen ($7,500), Evloev ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Allen (+160), Evloev (-200)
If you want to make a case this is the best fight on the entire card -- main event included -- I'm willing to listen.
Allen suffered his first UFC defeat and first defeat of any kind dating back to June 2014, a span of a dozen fights, last April against Max Holloway. Holloway is one of the best featherweights in the world and has been for seemingly forever, so you can't get on Allen for the effort. Arnold has knockout wins over the likes of Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker on his resume, so he hasn't built his brand by beating up nobodies. I'm a fan and see him as a fringe top-five guy, even in a loaded 145-pound division.
The UFC is doing Allen no favors, as Evloev's ceiling is even higher. A perfect 17-0 as a professional, Movsar has won each of his first seven UFC bouts, all via decision. The fact he hasn't been able to earn any stoppages is the only knock on the soon-to-be 30-year-old Russian.
Allen is going to have the edge in terms of pure power, he's also likely the more technical striker.
Where Evloev excels is his wrestling game. He's averaging 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 50 percent of his attempts. Movsar has 22 takedowns in his last three fights. That is not a misprint. He got Dan Ige and Hakeem Dawodu NINE (!!!) times each before flooring Diego Lopes on four separate occasions in his most recent fight last May.
Movsar has a two-inch reach edge despite being an inch shorter, which should help to curb Allen's striking advances some.
I like Arnold and think he's very underrated, and I have plenty of time for him at $7,500 simply because you don't often get fighters this talented at such a cheap price tag, but Evloev could be a future UFC champion one day. He's that good. I think he lands a couple takedowns at key times, racks up ground control and takes a decision.
UFC 297 PICK: Evloev
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Brad Katona (15-2-0) v. Garrett Armfield (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Katona ($8,800), Armfield ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Katona (-190), Armfield (+160)
UFC 297 PICK: Katona
Featherweight
Charles Jourdain (15-6-1) v. Sean Woodson (10-1-1)
DK Salaries: Jourdain ($9,000), Woodson ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Jourdain (-190), Woodson (+145)
UFC 297 PICK: Jourdain
Bantamweight
Serhiy Sidey (10-1-0) v. Ramon Taveras (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Sidey ($8,900), Taveres ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Sidey (-175), Taveres (+145)
UFC 297 PICK: Sidey
Women's Strawweight
Gillian Robertson (12-8-0) v. Polyana Viana (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Robertson ($9,100), Viana ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Robertson (-245), Viana (+200)
UFC 297 PICK: Robertson
Welterweight
Yohan Lainesse (9-2-0) v. Sam Patterson (10-2-1)
DK Salaries: Lainesse ($8,400), Patterson ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Lainesse (-150), Patterson (+125)
UFC 297 PICK: Patterson
Flyweight
Malcolm Gordon (14-7-0) v. Jimmy Flick (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: Gordon ($8,300), Flick ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Gordon (-165), Flick (+140)
UFC 297 PICK: Gordon
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-3-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jasudavicius ($9,500), Cachoeira ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Jasudavicius (-360), Cachoeira (+285)
UFC 297 PICK: Jasudavicius
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 297 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
