This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 90 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 90 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Brendan Allen (23-5-0) v. Chris Curtis (31-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Allen ($8,900), Curtis ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Allen (-200), Curtis (+165)
This headliner was supposed to be Allen v. Marvin Vettori before the latter withdrew in mid-March. Curtis is always game to step in, and Allen probably welcomed the opportunity given he was knocked out by Curtis in Round 2 when the two first met in December 2021.
Allen hasn't lost since then, securing six straight wins. Regular readers of this column know I'm a big fan. Of those six wins, five have come via submission, all via rear-naked choke. But Allen isn't a one-trick pony. He's a competent striker, can wrestle if needed and obviously can put you away on the mat. His breakout seems entirely legitimate, and I expect him to continue his rise up the middleweight rankings.
I really have no idea what to make of Curtis. I think he fights too frequently, and I'd like to see him pick one weight class and stick to it. Outside of the first win against Allen, he really has no history of defeating better competition. Set to turn 37 years of age in mid-July, I'm comfortable in saying we have likely seen the best "The Action Man" has to offer inside the Octagon.
My main complaint against Curtis is how one-dimensional his offense is. He's tough as nails and can constantly push a strong pace, but he's a boxer. He doesn't throw many kicks, and he'll eat a strike to land two of his own. It's a skill set that doesn't age well, particularly against a multi-faceted opponent like Allen.
Curtis is an excellent defensive wrestler, stuffing 92 percent of the takedowns sent his way, but Allen still has to try to grapple him simply because Curtis has no path to victory on the mat. He has one submission in 42 pro fights. Brendan has three submissions in the past 13 months. Allowing Chris to engage in a stand-up affair is malpractice given Allen's edge on the ground.
The result of the first fight was obviously terrible for Allen, but I thought he won the opening round of that bout before getting caught. I also think he's a considerably better all-around fighter than Curtis, and his price tag here looks quite appetizing.
THE PICK: Allen
Featherweight
Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) v. Damon Jackson (22-6-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,700), Jackson ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)
Both of these guys have lost back-to-back fights, and I would imagine it's far more likely than not that the man who comes up short here will be sent packing.
Hernandez looked like a legitimate prospect after knocking out division-stalwart Beneil Dariush in 42 seconds in his late-notice UFC debut back in March 2018. He followed that up with a unanimous decision win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, a victory that has aged extremely well. Yet, it's been all downhill since, with Hernandez sporting a 4-6 record in his past ten bouts, including a 1-3 mark in his past four. He has bounced back and forth between featherweight and lightweight, and I don't have a real strong lean as to which is a better spot for him. Hernandez has plenty of physical gifts, but he's not a kid anymore at age 31, and I think there's a high probability this is simply what he is as a fighter.
Jackson's second UFC run has gone lightyears better than his first. He was away for well over four years, returning in September 2019. Jackson won five of six upon returning, with the lone setback there being a knockout at the hands of current UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia Topuria. Yet, Damon has struggled of late, suffering back-to-back defeats to Dan Ige (knockout) and Billy Quarantillo (unanimous decision). You get an honest effort from Jackson every single time he steps into the Octagon, but set to turn 36 years of age in August, he may simply be out of gas.
Hernandez's big issue has been a lack of durability. He's comfortable in firefights, but his chin rarely holds up. On the surface, this seems like a good matchup for him. Jackson has very little power, with just four knockouts in 30 pro bouts, so Alex can probably get away with his reckless style of brawling.
On the other hand, Jackson is a mat wizard, securing 15 career wins via submission. That said, I wouldn't term him a pure wrestler despite the fact he averages 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Damon is at his best when he grinds on you and keeps you pinned, either up against the cage or to the mat. The uglier this fight appears, the better it is for Jackson.
Hernandez isn't without his warts, but an aging veteran with extremely limited stopping power in his hands is about the best Alex is going to do these days in terms of opposition. He's the pick.
THE PICK: Hernandez
Welterweight
Court McGee (22-12-0) v. Alex Morono (23-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: McGee ($7,000), Morono ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: McGee (+240), Morono (-300)
McGee is now 39 years of age. He's fresh off back-to-back first-round knockout defeats against Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells and is 3-7 in his past ten bouts. He's also been a member of the UFC roster for nearly 15 years, which is almost certainly the reason, the lone reason, he's getting another shot against Morono. If McGee loses here, as I suspect he will, I'd be totally floored if the company ran him back out there, but stranger things have happened.
Morono won four straight from May 2021 to July 2022, but has lost two in a row since. Alex is a technical, high-level striker, but it's most definitely volume-over-power, and I have lingering questions about his durability. This looks for all the world like a "free" victory for Morono as long as his chin holds up.
We've seen Court have some strong wrestling performances in the past, and he's going to need one here if he wants to win this fight. He's been with the UFC so long that the 1.89 takedowns McGee averages per 15 minutes is an accurate gauge of his grappling potential. Court isn't a guy that is going to lean on his grappling to win, but one well-timed shot could easily help him steal a round against a pure striker in Morono. The issue for Court is that he's landing just 25 percent of his attempts. Morono's 50 percent takedown defense is lazy, but do we really think McGee has the athleticism and gas tank to be wrestling for the better part of 15 minutes? I highly doubt it.
Assuming he isn't able to consistently get this fight to the mat, Morono emerges with a massive edge. Alex's brawling style is conducive to a long-term winning streak against quality opposition, but I imagine eating a strike from McGee in order to land two of his own will work just fine for Morono on this night.
In a stat so crazy I had to triple check it, McGee doesn't have a single knockout victory in his UFC career. This is a guy that made his company debut in June 2010, winning Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter. If you back Morono and he ends up getting knocked out, it is what it is. It just might not be your evening.
It feels dicey given Morono's price tag, but he wins this fight far more often than not.
THE PICK: Morono
Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont (10-2-0) v. Germaine de Randamie (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Dumont ($8,600), de Randamie ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Dumont (-175), de Randamie (+145)
By far the biggest storyline in this fight is the return of de Randamie, the first UFC Women's Flyweight Champion. Nearly 40 years of age, Germaine hasn't fought since October 2020. Best I can tell, she only had one fight scheduled during her time away and that was back in 2021. She gave birth last March and should be ready to roll come fight night.
Dumont is no easy mark, however. The UFC has been exceedingly careful regarding the competition level Dumont has faced, but she's still won six of her last seven bouts dating back to November 2020. Her two best victories during that stretch were over Aspen Ladd and Chelsea Chandler, to give you an idea of the quality of opposition she has faced.
A pure striker with questionable secondary skills, even in her heyday, de Randamie struggles in anything other than a prolonged kickboxing match. She's two inches taller and has a four-inch reach edge over Dumont, and I'm nearly certain she will be able to stand at distance and pick her opposition apart if Norma is foolish enough to engage Germaine in that type of bout.
The problem for Dumont is that she isn't much of a grappler. Yes, she's almost certainly better than GDR in that area, but Norma has just two career wins via submission, and they came within her first three pro bouts. Her last seven wins, including all three with the UFC, have come via decision. In there are a pair of split decisions and a majority decision, and that worries me. Dumont is going to be lightyears behind de Randamie in terms of technical striking, and trying to win on points seems like a potential recipe for disaster for the Brazilian.
Like Jackson, Dumont needs to try to close the space and stick tight to her opposition, even if she isn't generating a ton of offense of her own.
Between her age, limited offensive skill set and all the time away, I'm not optimistic in the least that GDR is going to be all that successful if she competes on a regular basis moving forward, but it feels as if the UFC has hand-picked an opponent she matches up against well in Dumont,. The price is also shockingly low for a former champion despite all the time away. I'll take de Randamie in a value pick.
THE PICK: de Randamie
OTHER FIGHTS
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere (19-9-1) v. Jose Mariscal (15-6-1)
DK Salaries: Charriere ($8,300), Mariscal ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Charriere (-120), Mariscal (+100)
THE PICK: Mariscal
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes (14-5-0) v. Christos Giagos (20-11-0)
DK Salaries: Bahamondes ($9,100), Giagos ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Bahamondes (-345), Giagos (+275)
THE PICK: Bahamondes
Heavyweight
Valter Walker (11-0-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Walker ($9,400), Brzeski ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Walker (-340), Brzeski (+270)
THE PICK: Walker
Lightweight
Trevor Peek (9-1-0, 1NC) v. Charlie Campbell (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Peek ($7,200), Campbell ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Peek (+170), Campbell (-205)
THE PICK: Campbell
Bantamweight
Heili Alateng (16-9-2) v. Victor Hugo (24-4-0)
DK Salaries: Alateng ($8,000), Hugo ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Alateng (+100), Hugo (-120)
THE PICK: Hugo
Women's Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,400), Calvillo ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-155), Calvillo (+135)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Dan Argueta (9-1-0, 2NC) v. Jean Matsumoto (14-0-0)
DK Salaries: Argueta ($7,400), Matsumoto ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Argueta (+155), Matsumoto (-185)
THE PICK: Matsumoto
Middleweight
Dylan Budka (7-2-0) v. Cesar Almeida (4-0-0)
DK Salaries: Budka ($8,500), Almeida ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Budka (-150), Almeida (+125)
THE PICK: Almeida
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle (7-1-0) v. Melissa Dixon (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Cornolle ($6,900), Dixon ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Cornolle (+265), Dixon (-345)
THE PICK: Mullins
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 90 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
