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Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: UFC 316 DFS Preview
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 316. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis and fighter breakdowns for Saturday's card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600 UFC 316 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) v. Sean O'Malley (18-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dvalishvili ($9,000), O'Malley ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)
This is a rematch of a September 2024 fight which Dvalishvili won via unanimous decision and took O'Malley's title in the process.
Merab has defended the belt once since then, defeating Umar Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision in January. Dvalishvili was a betting underdog that evening, but his legendary cardio, combined with the fact he was able to stuff 13-of-15 takedown attempts from Cousin Umar, allowed him to pull the upset.
O'Malley hasn't fought since the first fight between the two. The fact he is thus getting an immediate rematch is a pretty good deal considering he only successfully defended his title one time (Marlon Vera). Typically when you're champion for that short a period of time, the company makes you win another couple fights before getting back in the title picture.
As expected, O'Malley really struggled with the grappling game of Merab in the first fight.
He gave up six takedowns on 15 attempts, good for 10:03 worth of control time. Dvalishvili had at least 52 seconds worth of control time in all five rounds and had two frames in which he was north of three minutes.
On the flip side, Sean definitely had some success on the feet. He's obviously the far more dangerous and talented striker and is particularly deadly in open space. A prolonged kickboxing match favors "Suga" and it's not remotely close.
The bad news for Sean is that Merab is well aware of that. He's also one of the best fighters in recent memory at limiting space between he and his opposition. The takedown attempts may not always succeed, but Dvalishivli will constantly shoot. He'll try to make O'Malley fight with his back as close to the cage as possible.
He also has some of the best cardio and pace in the history of the sport. Merab can fight for 10 rounds at the same pace. He's also never been knocked out. We've see Dvalishvili rocked multiple times in the past, notably against Marlon Moraes, but no one has ever been able to put him away.
O'Malley has a ton of knockout wins in his career, but his lone impressive KO with the UFC was against Aljamain Sterling, and that was a one-punch affair.
I have a difficult time believing he's going to be able to stop Merab. I also have a difficult time believing he's going to be able to neutralize the Dvalishvili's grappling game to the point he'll be able to win a decision.
O'Malley is an excellent fighter and a worthy champion, but I just think he's going up against a guy that has a nightmare skill set for his abilities. Think Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier.
THE PICK: Dvalishvili
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Co-Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship
(C) Julianna Pena (13-5-0) v. Kayla Harrison (18-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pena ($6,500), Harrison ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Pena (+455), Harrison (-625)
This will be Pena's fourth straight title fight. She shocked the world in submitting Amanda Nunes back in December 2021 before dropping the title back to Nunes in July of the next year. Pena then took more than two years off before defeating Raquel Pennington via split decision to win back the gold last October. For what it's worth, nearly the entire world scored that fight for Pennington. Pena is very clearly on the back-nine of her career when you combine her inactivity, injury history and the fact she'll be 36 years old in mid-August.
Harrison finally gets her shot at UFC gold here, which was inevitable the second she signed with the company back in January 2024. Kayla competed at both lightweight and featherweight prior to her UFC arrival, but has had no problems thus far with the weight cut down to 135 pounds, which is amazing given how massive she is. Harrison has a lopsided unanimous decision win over Ketlen Vieira and a submission of Holly Holm in her two fights with the company.
Like O'Malley in the main event, this seems like an absolute nightmare setup for Pena from a stylistic standpoint.
Julianna has never been much of a striker. She has limited power and lacks fluidity in the stand-up.
On the flip side, she's an underrated grappler, with her two successful takedowns and 5:40 worth of control time against Pennington the only recent she was even able to hang around, let alone win.
Enter, Harrison, who is a former two-time Olympic Gold Medalist in judo and one of the strongest and most explosive athletes in women's MMA history.
Kayla landed two takedowns against both Vieira and Holm. She's so powerful from an upper-body perspective that she can muscle her opposition to the mat even if her entries aren't perfect. Once she's on top of you, you aren't going anywhere.
Toss in Pena's truly horrific 23 percent career takedown defense, and you can almost certainly see where this is heading.
It's really difficult to do anything with Kayla from a DraftKings standpoint given her massive salary, but I think she wins here in an absolute rout. Any Pena victory seems likely to come via submission and would almost certainly require Harrison to make some sort of massive mental mistake on the mat.
THE PICK: Harrison
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (20-9-0, 1NC) v. Joe Pyfer (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($7,000), Pyfer ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (+300), Pyfer (-380)
These two were scheduled to fight in Mexico City in late-March before Pyfer was forced to withdraw the day of the even due to illness.
Gastelum continues to get notable fights against quality opponents despite the fact he is sporting a 3-6 record dating back to April 2019. Now, the six defeats came against literally the best in the world (Sean Brady, Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, Jack Hermansson, Darren Till, Israel Adesanya), but you are what your record says you are in this sport. I also don't like the fact Gastelum continues to dabble in two weight classes. Kelvin's loss to Brady two fights ago was at welterweight. He was also scheduled to face Daniel Rodriguez at 170 pounds in his most recent bout last June (a unanimous decision win), but Gastelum acknowledged issues during his weight cut and the fight was moved to 185 pounds. Here, he's not even bothering trying to cut down.
This seems like smart matchmaking and a reasonable test for Pyfer. The 28-year-old is 4-1 in the UFC, with four stoppage wins and a five-round, main event loss to Hermansson on his resume. Even in defeat, Pyfer looked excellent early on before gassing out and falling to the veteran. That said, Pyfer's best UFC wins are over Marc-Andre Barriault and Abdul Razak Alhassan. He might not be quite ready for showtime at 185 pounds, so a fight against Gastelum seems like a smart compromise.
Gastelum is a tough fighter to figure out. A former high-level wrestler in college, there are some fights -- primarily against pure strikers -- in which Kelvin uses his wrestling to completely smother his opposition. In other bouts, like the one against Brady, Gastelum is pinned to the mat seemingly the entire fight and can't get out of first gear. All told, he averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he's clearly not leaning on his wrestling every time out.
The size difference here figures to be a big problem for Kelvin. At 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach, Gastelum's ideal weight class is welterweight. He's too undersized to repeatedly succeed at 185 pounds, but because of the weight cutting issues, he's forced to move up.
Pyfer is 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach and probably wouldn't look out of place at light heavyweight. Kelvin's easiest path to victory is to try to lean on that wrestling, but Pyfer is so big and strong that I don't think it's a realistic option.
On the feet, Gastelum has always been a talented striker that excels at stringing together combinations, but Pyfer's power is ridiculous. Also ridiculous is Kelvin's durability, having never been finished in 29 pro fights.
It's a near-certainty Gastelum is going to have to weather some rough seas early on. If you're a Kelvin backer, you're hoping he can tough it out and take advantage of a hopefully-tiring Pyfer late.
I'd have far more interest in Kelvin as an upset pick if this was scheduled for five rounds. As is, Pyfer is the choice, even if he seems a bit overpriced given his overall body of work.
THE PICK: Pyfer
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista (15-2-0) v. Patchy Mix (20-1-0)
DK Salaries: Bautista ($7,700), Mix ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Bautista (+145), Mix (-175)
This was originally scheduled to be Bautista and Marlon Vera, yet once the latter withdrew due to unknown reasons, the UFC moved quickly to sign Mix, a former Bellator Bantamweight Champion, into this spot for his promotional debut.
Bautista continues to get notable fights, and he's earned them. The 31-year-old Nevada native has won seven straight dating back to March 2021. His most recent victory over Jose Aldo last October was via split decision in a fight which was as close as any you'll ever see. Bautista has shown continued improvement each and every time out, and there's reason to expect that to continue for at least the next year or two.
Unfortunately for Bautista, Mix would appear to be a significantly stiffer challenge than the aging Vera. Patchy has just one career defeat, and it came back in September 2020. He hasn't been fighting the best the sport has to offer in Bellator, but Mix has wins over the likes of Sergio Pettis and Magomed Magomedov (twice). His talent isn't in question, and although we've seen debuting Bellator/PFL fighters have varied amounts of success of late after joining the UFC, Patchy is widely believed to be one of the more talented guys to make the jump.
The fact Bautista was able to defeat Aldo despite failing on all 10 of his takedown attempts says something. He outmuscled the Hall of the Famer the entire fight, constantly pinning him up against the cage en route to 7:15 worth of control time, but the takedowns themselves weren't there.
It's imperative Mario remain active in the stand-up once again. Mix is a very good grappler. He's a BJJ black belt and has 13 career wins via submission. I seriously doubt Bautista is going to be able to overwhelm him on the mat. He needs to get off first in the rare striking exchanges (if Mix has his way) between the two because Mario's power edge is legitimate.
Mix is tough and physical. He has limited thunder in his hands, but he's constantly moving and is a massive bantamweight at 5-foot-11. I expect him to try and put Bautista on the defensive from the very start in a fight scheduled for just three rounds.
Patchy needs to make sure he doesn't stand at striking range for extended periods of time, but if he is able to avoid that, I think he wins. Bautista is a worthy opponent, but if Mix as good as everyone seems to think, he should emerge victorious here.
THE PICK: Mix
Welterweight
Vicente Luque (23-10-1) v. Kevin Holland (27-13-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Luque ($7,400), Holland ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+215), Holland (-265)
I have long maintained Holland would be better off having longer training camps and fighting less frequently, but he simply isn't built to do so. This will already be his third fight of 2025 after fighting three times in 2024. Holland lost four of five from September 2023 to January 2025, but one of those setbacks was to current UFC Welterweight Champion Jack Della Maddalena via split decision and another was against Reinier de Ridder. You can't hold either against him.
Holland did manage to get back in the win column his last time out, upsetting a noted high-level grappler in Gunnar Nelson. We have plenty of evidence that Holland can't succeed at middleweight, but that hasn't stopped him from dabbling in two weight classes. It has undoubtedly hurt his career. This fight will be at 170 pounds.
Luque was in a bad spot with setbacks in three of four fights from April 2022 to March 2024, but two of his setbacks came against Belal Muhammad and Joaquin Buckley. Again, perfectly reasonable guys to lose to. Luque last fought in December, submitting Themba Gorimbo via anaconda choke and earning a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus for his efforts.
While Holland beat Nelson and deserved to win, the end result itself -- a unanimous decision win -- was a bit misleading. Holland still gave up three takedowns and 9:29 worth of control time in a 15-minute bout. The reason he managed to escape with the victory was because Gunnar did absolutely nothing with his positional advantage.
Holland's grappling defense is a big problem. At middleweight, as we saw in the de Ridder fight, he's far too undersized and simply gets muscled to the mat with ease.
Thankfully for Holland, Luque isn't much of a grappler. Outside of one fluke performance against Rafael dos Anjos in which he completely flipped the script and got eight takedowns, Vicente hasn't taken down any other opponent dating back to March 2017.
Luque probably hits harder, but Holland is a far more technical striker. The latter will also enter with a massive four-inch edge in height and six-inch edge in reach. Vicente is going to have to crash the pocket in hopes of turning it into a brawl. The prettier the fight looks, the better it is for Holland.
The line seems a bit wide, I would have Holland as closer to a -170 favorite, but I like how he looks at welterweight and this feels like a good stylistic matchup for him. I think he wins a decision.
THE PICK: Holland
OTHER BOUTS
Flyweight
Bruno Silva (14-6-2, 1NC) v. Joshua Van (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($6,900), Van ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+410), Van (-550)
THE PICK: Van
Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov (14-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Muzakanov (-535), Ribeiro (+400)
THE PICK: Murzakanov
Heavyweight
Serghei Spivac (17-5-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Spivac ($8,300), Cortes-Acosta ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Spivac (-140), Cortes-Acosta (+120)
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Welterweight
Khaos Williams (15-4-0) v. Andreas Gustafsson (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Williams (-190), Gustafsson (+160)
THE PICK: Gustafsson
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Women's Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (17-10-0) v. Cong Wang (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lipski ($7,100), Cong ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Lipski (+360), Cong (-470)
THE PICK: Cong
Featherweight
Jeka Saragih (14-4-0) v. Joo Sang Yoo (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Saragih ($6,700), You ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Saragih (+360), You (-470)
THE PICK: You
Lightweight
Quillan Salkilld (8-1-0) v. Yanal Ashmouz (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Salkilld ($9,400), Ashmouz ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Salkilld (-455), Ashmouz (+350)
THE PICK: Salkilld
Lightweight
Marquel Mederos (10-1-0) v. Mark Choinski (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Mederos (-245), Choinski (+200)
THE PICK: Mederos
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 316 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
