This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 303 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 303 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Ricky Simon (20-5-0) v. Vinicius Oliveira (20-3-0)
Ricky Simon - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Vinicius Oliveira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a big step up for Oliveira and one I do not think he will handle well. Simon can be suffocating when he takes it to the mat, and he will have the edge there. Oliveira has good BJJ but will be better off keeping this on the feet. I expect Simon to pull this off but it will likely be close at times.
UFC 303 Pick: Simon
Carlos Hernandez (9-3-0) v. Rei Tsuruya (9-0-0)
Carlos Hernandez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
Rei Tsuruya - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Hernandez's last fight was against a top Japanese prospect, and now he draws another in Tsuruya, who dominated his way through Road to UFC. Tsuruya should have the edge everywhere in the fight, and I expect him to get it done early.
UFC 303 Pick: Tsuruya
Andrei Arlovski (34-23-0) v. Martin Buday (13-2-0)
Andrei Arlovski - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 34 wins
Martin Buday - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not want to put much stock into this fight for DFS. Arlovski fights rarely have scores worthy of any lineups. I expect Buday to get this done by volume-based decision.
UFC 303 Pick: Buday
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) v. Gillian Robertson (13-8-0)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Gillian Robertson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight slide, and I do not expect that to end in this one. She will have the edge on the feet, but Robertson hardly keeps fight upright for long. I expect Robertson to get this to the mat early and end this by submission within the first two rounds.
UFC 303 Pick: Robertson
Payton Talbott (8-0-0) v. Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2-0)
Payton Talbott - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Yanis Ghemmouri - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: All eyes will be on Talbott as he goes for his third consecutive UFC win in spectacular fashion. Ghemmouri is solid but not great. He was dominated in his debut and is sure to be dominated again. Talbott will be difficult to fit into most lineups for DFS, but he should pay off nicely if he ends this in Round 1.
UFC 303 Pick: Talbott
Charles Jourdain (15-7-1) v. Jean Silva (12-2-0)
Charles Jourdain - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be a banger, as most Jourdain fights are. I expect both guys to come in swinging early and often. Silva is more likely to take his to the mat as he has a considerable edge there, which likely results in the difference for this fight. I expect this to be close, with Silva edging it out.
UFC 303 Pick: Silva
Cub Swanson (29-13-0) v. Andre Fili (23-11-0)
Cub Swanson - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 29 wins
Andre Fili - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: I have little to no faith left in the aging Swanson. He will always have an outside shot for a knockout, but he is unlikely to get past Fili. Fili should be better everywhere and control where the fight goes. I expect Fili to get this done early and score well for DFS.
UFC 303 Pick: Fili
Joe Pyfer (12-3-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7-0)
Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Marc-Andre Barriault - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters took a loss in their most recent fights. Pyfer drew a considerable step up in competition and came up short through five rounds, while Barriault lost a split decision over three. The fight should be close on the feet, but Pyfer will have a massive edge on the mat. I expect the fight to be close but for Pyfer to pull this out after three rounds. I would not expect a huge DFS score without a finish.
UFC 303 Pick: Pyfer
Ian Machado Garry (14-0-0) v. Michael Page (22-2-0)
Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Michael Page - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a pure GPP fight and one I am more likely to fade. I do not expect a finish or a ton of output from either fighter. Page has an impressive skillset but will need to pump up his volume and outpoint Garry in a striking match. I could see Garry struggling with Page's reach advantage at times, but ultimately, I expect him to figure Page out quickly enough to pull out a win.
UFC 303 Pick: Garry
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1) v. Macy Chiasson (9-3-0)
Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Macy Chiasson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Bueno Silva does many things right and will have the edge in many fights. However, Chiasson is a bad matchup for her. Bueno Silva will likely have the edge in pure grappling, but I would give the wrestling edge to Chiasson. I expect this fight to be close. Playing Chiasson will be a solid way to get different for GPP contests, as in a win, she will likely score well for DFS.
UFC 303 Pick: Chiasson
Anthony Smith (37-19-0) v. Roman Dolidze (12-3-0)
Anthony Smith - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 35 finishes in 38 wins
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Smith pulled out a massive upset win in his most recent fight, submitting his opponent two minutes into the first round. He is showing signs of life, but I still do not trust his chin. It feels like people are forgetting how dangerous Dolidze is, and I am here for it. I see Dolidze being better everywhere and knocking Smith out early. He is one of my favorite plays for cash and GPP contests.
UFC 303 Pick: Dolidze
Brian Ortega (16-3-0) v. Diego Lopes (24-6-0)
Brian Ortega - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Ortega snuck out an upset submission win in his last fight and showed a lot of heart after being down early. However, I do not think he will have the same success in this fight. Lopes continues to show how phenomenal of a fighter he is, recording another first-round finish in April. We still have yet to see his BJJ, and we will likely finally get to see it here. Lopes will have a considerable edge on the feet, and I will not be surprised to see him knock Ortega out.
UFC 303 Pick: Lopes
Alex Pereira (10-2-0) v. Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1)
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Jiri Prochazka - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 29 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: These two fought last November, which resulted in a Pereira knockout in round two. I do not see this fight going much differently than the first time. Prochazka will always be live for a knockout, but Pereira's kickboxing will be the deciding factor. Pereira is a solid play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC 303 Pick: Pereira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
