Another Saturday means another 12-fight slate for us to analyze, as UFC Nashville provides us with intriguing bouts to consider across multiple platforms. We'll break down every fight to give prospective DFS players and bettors their best shot at profit, including a Brazilian fighter looking to right the ship, and a grappling specialist who may just have found the perfect matchup. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Tatiana Suarez ($9,500)
Jessica Andrade has been a mess in recent Octagon appearances, charging at her opponents with no regard for defense whatsoever, and getting sparked out as a consequence. Even during her best days "Bate Estaca" struggled with grapplers who could out-muscle her, and Suarez is returning to her natural weight class, where her strength will likely be too much for the former champion.
Diego Lopes ($8,300)
Lopes impressed most of the MMA world while stepping in as a late replacement against Movsar Evloev, testing his undefeated opponent with aggression, power, and slick jiujitsu. Wrestling has been a major facet of Gavin Tucker's game of late, but I expect him to be wary of his opponent's grappling skills, which should allow Lopez to dictate where the fight takes place.
Raoni Barcelos ($7,200)
The previous dynamic will come into play here as well, with Kyler Phillips looking to use his speed and mix in his wrestling to keep his counterpart off balance. The issue is that Barcelos carries a 93 percent takedown defense rate, and showcases crisp boxing from range. I expect Barcelos to be the one looking to grapple in order to negate a fairly significant reach disadvantage, while also looking to slow "The Matrix" with leg kicks. Barcelos has taken some fairly surprising losses lately after a promising start to his UFC career, but I will always trust his skill set at this price.
Jeremiah Wells ($8,500)
We're about to find out what happens when two bulls enter a china shop, as both Wells and Carlston Harris love crashing the pocket and bringing their opponent to the floor. Harris' length will likely result in "Mocambique" looking to use his jab early, but Wells' strength on the inside, combined with the toughness we saw in his fight with Matthew Semelsberger, should see him continue his undefeated streak in the Octagon with authority.
Jake Hadley ($8,800)
It seems odd that Hadley is without a takedown in the UFC, as "White Kong" is a grappler by trade, but matchups and circumstances have prevented the 27-year-old from showing us his full skill set. He will get his opportunity against Cody Durden, who will force grappling exchanges when he isn't trying to throw big right hands. Hadley may not be the better pure wrestler here, but he should easily outscramble his opponent while finding his own opportunities to bring the fight to the ground.
Damon Jackson ($7,300)
We have yet to find the matchup that will afford Jackson an advantage on the feet, but Billy Quarantillo's style relies so heavily on making fights messy in the clinch that "The Leech" will have plenty of opportunities to get the type of fight that he wants. "Billy Q" also likes to weaponize his cardio, but Jackson is at home on the mat, and I doubt he will have any trouble getting the better of the 34-year-old in scrambles.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 83.5 Significant Strikes, Tanner Boser Under 57.5 Significant Strikes, and Cory Sandhagen UNDER 120.5 Significant Strikes
Bahamondes is one of the most prolific workers in the organization, landing strikes at a rate of 7.93 strikes per minute over five UFC fights. L'udovit Klein may try to grapple occasionally but is a kickboxer by trade. These two men have just one knockout loss between them in 51 combined fights, so I'm comfortable predicting that Klein and Bahamondes will trade blows at a blistering pace for 15 minutes.
Boser's quickness always stood out at heavyweight, and while he will still be the crisper striker here, the footwork and athleticism of Aleksa Camur should work to curtail the frequency with which he lands shots. It's also worth noting that Camur is physically strong for the weight class and should look to tie Boser up to negate his striking advantage.
It may seem like a fool's errand to attempt to play the under in what is bound to be a high-paced main event, but I doubt that Sandhagen will want to box with Rob Font for 25 minutes. Instead, the perennial title contender should look to neutralize the power and stinging jab of the 36-year-old by keeping this fight in close quarters whenever possible.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Ode Osbourne -2.05 X Multiplier
Newcomer Asu Almabaev wants nothing more than to grind his opponents out on the mat, but grapplers haven't had the easiest time taking "The Jamaican Sensation" to the floor, as evidenced by his 72 percent takedown defense rate. If Alambaev can't grapple effectively, he will need to deal with the speed and frame of Osbourne for three rounds, and this fight could turn into a nightmare for Asu quickly if he is stuck at range.
Dennis Buzukja – Multiplier TBD
Sean Woodson has accepted fights with four different opponents to stay on this card, and his final one may be his toughest test. Woodson loves using his lengthy frame to keep his opponent in space and work combinations, but Buzukja will look to close that range immediately while throwing big counter shots. He also cuts off the cage well, which means Woodson may find it hard to exit troubling situations via his footwork. It's always tough taking a fighter on such short notice, but Woodson has been through the wringer as far as preparation goes, which may leave him unsure of how to combat his newest rival.
Bets to Consider
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins via KO/TKO (+230)
It's difficult to think of a fighter in the heavier weight classes who has shown more improvement than Nzechukwu since his UFC debut. While certainly not a perfect fighter, Nzechukwu has become an aggressive, dedicated finisher, who is more comfortable on the mat and can use his jab in space. While this doesn't make him a better striker than Dustin Jacoby, we have seen the former kickboxer hurt in fights recently, and Nzechukwu is unlikely to let him off the hook when he lands a fight-changing blow. I expect Jacoby to be overwhelmed by the power early as he tries to point-fight his way to victory.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Nashville Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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