With just 11 fights on the docket for UFC Vegas 83, DFS players may need to take a few more chances to get that unique lineup capable of winning big. We'll take a look at betting and DFS opportunities across three platforms, including a pressuring grappler looking to bounce back, and a light heavyweight who has become infamous for his brutality in the cage. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jun Yong Park ($8,800)
There was a time when I had Andre Muniz ticketed for great heights at middleweight. Shockingly, even the BJJ of the only man to ever submit MMA legend Ronaldo Souza seemed lackluster in bouts against Paul Craig and Brendan Allen, as he was unable to do much once put on his back. This should spell trouble against a well-rounded fighter like Park, who will control fights with his jab at range before wearing on opponents with a smothering grappling attack. Muniz has been known to fatigue in the later rounds as well, making it hard to imagine where he finds success in this one.
Jamie Mullarkey ($7,500)
Mullarkey was almost universally put in the MMA DFS doghouse following a KO/TKO loss to Muhammadjon Naimov and a generous decision over John Makdessi, but the Australian fighter's pace, pressure, and ability to grapple should get the job done here. Nasrat Haqparast is a high-volume striker who has struggled with strong grapplers in the past, and I expect Mullarkey to have a noted strength advantage. While his striking defense has let him down in the past, Haqparast isn't much of a knockout artist, which should allow Mullarkey to get on the inside and work his clinch wrestling.
Tim Elliott ($8,400)
It's a shame that Su Mudaerji has such trouble staying on his feet because the Chinese fighter's power, agility, and bravado have made him a fun addition to the flyweight roster. There is always a chance Mudaerji will swarm Elliott before he has a chance to work in his wrestling, but the former title challenger has been knocked out just once in 32 career fights and fought the better part of 10 minutes out on his feet after eating a clean shot in his loss to Askar Askarov in 2020. That legendary toughness and grappling persistence should spell trouble for Mudaerji and another high-scoring victory for Elliott.
Melquizael Costa ($9,000)
The fight against Steve Garcia should look similar to Costa's bout with Austin Lingo, as he once again will face a stalking pressure fighter looking to overwhelm his opponent. The notable difference is the power of Garcia, which I believe will work in Costa's favor, as he will be able to more effectively use his athleticism and hit reactive takedowns when Garcia plants his feet to throw big shots. Costa will need to be wary of some very real danger, but Garcia isn't much better at cutting off the cage than Lingo, which should mean ample opportunities for "Melk Cauthy" as long as he stays sharp.
Rayanne dos Santos ($8,300)
As an undersized BJJ champion with just four professional MMA fights, it's going to take some convincing before I accept that Talita Alencar can fight at this level. Not only will she be on the wrong end of a four-inch reach advantage, but her shots on the Contender Series all seemed incredibly telegraphed, and while she does have ferocious ground-and-pound, it's hard to predict success when the rest of her game is so underdeveloped. "Amanda" is agile at range and throws incredibly hard, so it wouldn't surprise me if a knockout materialized at some point, though it is more likely that the former Invicta champion will mix in takedowns and leave Alancar stuck on her back as she looks for submissions.
Tatsuro Taira ($9,400)
Taira's price may seem a bit prohibitive, but it's important to note that the Japanese fighter is averaging a whopping 101.7 DraftKings points in four fights, owing largely to his grappling and submission ability. Carlos Hernandez was submitted quickly by another strong grappler in Allan Nascimento, and while he is a fluid striker, we've seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to deal with the committed grapplers in the flyweight division.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks – Significant Strikes
Luana Santos UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes and Kevin Jousset OVER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Santos is a fighter I expect to pick up a few more knockouts along the way in her MMA career, as she throws everything into each haymaker while keeping a ferocious pace. Meanwhile, Stephanie Egger stands very tall in the pocket and looks to get fights to the ground as quickly as possible. This likely means the bout either gets bogged down in grappling exchanges or ends in a quick KO/TKO, both of which promise a low number of significant strikes.
I picked against Kevin Jousset in his UFC debut, and while I'm still not the biggest fan of his upright posture or tendency to concede real estate, Song Kenan has struggled with rangy fighters in the past, and will be wide open to eat leg kicks and jabs from "Air." Jousset isn't much of a finisher, and Kenan showed us in his fight with Ian Garry how resilient he can be, so I expect him to take damage until the final horn sounds.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks – Fight Time
Hyun Sung Park OVER 5.0 Minutes of Fight Time and Yadong Song OVER 19.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Park's line seems set up to fade, as we saw him notch back-to-back first-round finishes in the Road to UFC tournament before looking decidedly gunshy in his third-round win against Seung Guk Choi in his UFC debut. On the other side, Shannon Ross has been sparked out in each of his first two UFC appearances, but "The Turkish Delight" was known for his toughness before facing UFC competition, having lost just one fight via KO/TKO before his bout on The Contender Series. All this is to say that neither man has earned their current reputation, which is why I'm banking on this one getting comfortably past the five-minute mark.
By contrast, Song is a consistent finisher, as KO/TKOs account for nine of his 20 professional wins, and he has finished his last three victories via strikes. The issue here is that Chris Gutierrez has always been sound defensively, as evidenced by the fact that he has never been knocked out in 25 professional fights. Fighters like "El Guapo" can sometimes produce boring bouts due to how cautious they are in the cage, which is music to our ears in this spot.
Bets to Consider
Khalil Rountree Wins via KO/TKO (-110)
The grappling prowess of Anthony Smith aside, this seems like a mismatch between a lengthy, lumbering, volume striker and an incredibly fast and powerful KO threat. Rountree should be able to chew up the legs of "Lionheart" with kicks, and the suspect defense of the former light heavyweight title challenger (4.45 significant strikes absorbed per minute) doesn't seem to suggest a favorable outcome. It's also worth noting that Smith has succeeded on just 28 percent of his takedown attempts in the UFC, which tells me that he will be stuck out at range with one of the more imposing pure strikers in the division.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 83 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
