The NFL and "The Last Dance" have dominated the sports world in recent days, and deservedly so. The draft has always intrigued me as someone who likes to second-guess the picks and think that I could do better than guys like Bill O'Brien. TLD has been highly entertaining as someone who grew up watching Magic and Bird, and soon thereafter, Michael Jordan. Now though, we have potentially some good news for baseball fans.
ESPN's Jeff Passan reported recently that "it's just a matter of when, where and how" baseball will return this year. While there is no guarantee or semblance of a guess as to how many games we'll get, I'm starting to think I'd take the over on .5 games played in 2020. The White House and the coronavirus task force appears to be very interested in having sports play a role in getting things "back to normal" in the coming weeks/months. So, for now, we'll be optimistic and say that we're watching actual games on or before the 4th of July. Imagine that day — firing up the grill, cracking a cold one and watching actual baseball. Sounds like heaven.
As we wait, here are a few questions I have around playing time.
When does Kyle Tucker surpass Josh Reddick?
Despite going just 1-for-20 this spring, Reddick apparently was in line to open as the Astros' starter in right field. Tucker, meanwhile, went 0-for-16 to start play but finished with eight hits in his final 13 at-bats,
The NFL and "The Last Dance" have dominated the sports world in recent days, and deservedly so. The draft has always intrigued me as someone who likes to second-guess the picks and think that I could do better than guys like Bill O'Brien. TLD has been highly entertaining as someone who grew up watching Magic and Bird, and soon thereafter, Michael Jordan. Now though, we have potentially some good news for baseball fans.
ESPN's Jeff Passan reported recently that "it's just a matter of when, where and how" baseball will return this year. While there is no guarantee or semblance of a guess as to how many games we'll get, I'm starting to think I'd take the over on .5 games played in 2020. The White House and the coronavirus task force appears to be very interested in having sports play a role in getting things "back to normal" in the coming weeks/months. So, for now, we'll be optimistic and say that we're watching actual games on or before the 4th of July. Imagine that day — firing up the grill, cracking a cold one and watching actual baseball. Sounds like heaven.
As we wait, here are a few questions I have around playing time.
When does Kyle Tucker surpass Josh Reddick?
Despite going just 1-for-20 this spring, Reddick apparently was in line to open as the Astros' starter in right field. Tucker, meanwhile, went 0-for-16 to start play but finished with eight hits in his final 13 at-bats, including two doubles and a home run. One wonders whether an extra couple weeks of Grapefruit League action would have allowed Tucker to surpass Reddick. Tucker had a great fantasy year in Triple-A, batting .266/.352/.555 with 34 homers and 30 steals. His 11.2 BB% was excellent, though at 49 percent, his GB% was a bit high, and when combined with a .280 BABIP, the batting average suffered a little. Tucker did start hitting the ball a bit harder and, in the air, late in September with the Astros, ultimately batting a respectable .270/.341/.595 in his final 11 games, including three home runs and four steals. Assuming we get some form of spring training with actual practice games, it's easy to see Tucker relegating Reddick to a reserve role sooner than later.
When do the White Sox sign 2B Nick Madrigal to a six-year deal?
It happened with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, so why not their latest high-impact prospect? Madrigal, the No. 4 overall pick in 2018, doesn't project to have the ceiling as a high fantasy draft pick, but there's enough there to be excited about his arrival. Madrigal has just four career home runs in more than 700 plate appearances, but he's also hit .309/.371/.398 with 43 stolen bases, (though he's been caught 19 times). I had to double check this, but Madrigal has also struck out just 3 percent (!) of the time while walking in 7.2 percent of his plate appearances. It's easy to see Madrigal as a .300 hitter with 100 runs scored and 20-plus stolen bases, but the power output doesn't appear to be on an upward trajectory any time soon. As it stands, it appears Leury Garcia is atop the second base depth chart, but Garcia has a .292 career OBP and is coming off a season in which his BB/K clocked in at just .15. He's merely a placeholder.
How much playing time does Miguel Andujar get?
If everyone were to be healthy and producing at past levels, that would seemingly leave Andujar scraping for at-bats near the end of the bench. That said, can we really count on guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to be healthy at the same time? Can Luke Voit, Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman be productive at once? Andujar owners would certainly prefer that he had a set position, but there does look to be a path for at least semi-regular time all around the diamond, including first base, third base, left field and DH. So, what can we expect from Andujar's bat? In his 2018 rookie year, Andjuar hit an impressive .297/.328/.527 before injuring his labrum and missing most of last year. At the Double-A/Triple-A level in 2017, Andujar also hit well, batting .315/.352/.498, striking out just 13.6 percent of the time, though he also did walk in just 5.6 percent of his plate appearances. Andujar's bat speed pre-labrum surgery was elite, but expecting a return to his 2018 levels right away this year might be optimistic, but in a stacked Yankees lineup, he's certainly worth monitoring.
When will the Rays free Nate Lowe?
Lowe was optioned to Triple-A on March 26, though that doesn't necessarily rule him out for Opening Day. It just means he won't be paid as much. Lowe is facing an uphill battle for playing time, particularly after the Rays traded for 1B/OF/DH Jose Martinez, signed Yoshi Tsutsugo and didn't trade presumed first base starter Ji-Man Choi. Let's look a bit deeper, though:
Martinez – 31 years old, limited defensively, regressed from an .821 OPS in 2018 to .750 last year (.685 vs. RHP)
Tsutsugo – struck out in 25.3 percent of his plate appearances in Japan last year (how does that translate to MLB?), just .179/.258/.321 with 13 K in 31 plate appearances this spring. Seemed to have issues with 95-plus mph fastballs.
Choi – .821 OPS is fine, but not spectacular for a first baseman.
Lowe – 24 years old, hit .289/.421/.508 last year in Triple-A with a reasonable 20.2 K% and elite 17.7 BB%, showed elite exit velocity (91.3 mph), hard-hit rate (41.3 percent) and barrels/PA (6.5 percent) in Tampa Bay.
The cream (Lowe) will eventually rise to the top, but if you're a frustrated Lowe owner in dynasty/keeper leagues, trust me, I can relate.
Over or under 23.5 stolen bases for Jorge Mateo?
Collectively, Oakland second basemen hit a paltry .208/.274/.376 last season, due in large part to the likes of Jurickson Profar and Franklin Barreto. Profar is gone, but Barreto probably tops the depth chart at the position now, with Tony Kemp (.233/.314/.367 career hitter) next man up. That leaves Mateo as an intriguing option and perhaps, the most likely internal long-term solution for the position. Mateo turns 25 in June, and after spending all of the last two seasons in Triple-A, it's now or never. 2018 was ugly, but in 2019, Mateo rebounded to hit .289/.330/.504 with 62 XBH and 24 SB despite ugly plate discipline numbers — 5.1 BB%, 25.6 K%. If he can get on base consistently, his speed would lend to 40-plus steals and with the 19 home runs last year, the power upside is decent as well. If you're looking for a sneaky source of steals in deeper leagues, this may be your guy, though his projected playing time is certainly open for debate.
How will the outfield at-bats be divvied up in Cincinnati?
I wish I knew. With the signings of Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos, the Reds project to have at least five options for three positions. Mike Moustakas signing to play second base eliminates Nick Senzel as an option, so he's now in the outfield mix along with holdovers Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino. Then you have another bunch that includes the likes of Michael Lorenzen, Phillip Ervin and Travis Jankowski, two of which probably don't make the roster if it were limited to a 25-man. Let's look at the projected role for each of the top five options:
1. Nick Castellanos – The Reds didn't give him $64 million to sit on the bench. He has to play most days.
2. Jesse Winker – A .543 career OPS versus LHP would seem to make him a platoon guy at best. He should be in there against most RHP, though.
3. Shogo Akiyama – Set to lead off "when he starts." He's another lefty, so we'll assume he's in there against most RHP and sees limited or no action versus southpaws.
4. Nick Senzel – Here's where it gets tricky. Do they keep Senzel on the roster in a part-time role? He should play against most lefties and some righties, and at 24 (25 in June), do the Reds really send him back to Triple-A? Maybe they surprise us and have him play everyday in CF, relegating a guy like Winker to the bench. Perhaps a trade shakes things loose, but I'd have to think Senzel is in the lineup most days somewhere.
5. Aristides Aquino – He did shock us all with 19 home runs in 225 PA, but Aquino was 2-for-26 this spring, making an early Triple-A stint very possible.
Is this the year for Franchy Cordero?
Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham and Wil Myers are the projected starters, but there are scenarios that could have Cordero receiving more playing time than the typical fourth outfielder. Grisham hit .231 and struck out in 26.2 percent of his plate appearances with the Brewers last year. Grisham also has a spotty minor league track record, batting just .233 in more than 1,500 PA at the Low-A, High-A and Double-A before destroying Triple-A pitching in 34 games last year. The Padres could tire of Eric Hosmer's lack of production and move Myers to first base on occasion. Finally, Myers himself has struck out 31.3 percent of the time since 2017 and could see his playing time cut. The Padres also tried to move his contract this winter, but predictably had no takers. Perhaps this year they'll be willing to absorb more of his contract to just get him off the roster.
Is Jason Kipnis really a starter for the Cubs?
Well, it's probably him or Nico Hoerner. Kipnis has hit a combined .236/.305/.403 since 2016, and though 33 is far from ancient, it's been four years since Kipnis was an above average second baseman. Maybe expanded rosters helps him make the team, but it's tough to really count on much of anything from Kipnis this year. I'd expect Hoerner to make the club and play most every day. Hoerner in theory could open in Triple-A, but I think he makes the team. I wouldn't expect a lot of power right away, but Hoerner shows good command of the strike zone, striking out just 10.5 percent of the time in Double-A last year and 13.4 percent in 20 games with the Cubs.
What percentage of the third base at-bats in Washington go to Carter Kieboom?
After batting .303/.409/.493 in Triple-A, Kieboom has nothing left to prove at that level, so he should get a real shot with the Nationals this year. Kieboom, of course, got a brief look last year but hit just .128 in 11 games before the Nationals pulled the plug. Of course, that's not even close to a big enough sample size, so I wouldn't worry too much about his debut. For now, we do have him atop the 3B depth chart, but the Nationals have viable alternatives in the form of Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera, all of whom are fighting for at-bats at second base as well. I imagine Kieboom will get the Opening Day nod, but with the Nationals looking to get back to the World Series, he may have another short leash. My feeling is that he'll struggle, get sent back down briefly, rake in Triple-A and then return and be productive. Guess to the question above? 70 percent.
What prospect will spend more time in the big leagues than most anticipate?
Many pundits point to MacKenzie Gore due to his advanced repertoire and the fact that the Padres have been aggressive with players like Fernando Tatis Jr. However, while I can see a 2020 Gore debut, keep in mind that Tatis at least had a full year in Double-A in 2018 before breaking camp with the club in 2019. Gore, however, had just five Double-A starts last year and didn't exactly dominate — 4.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. It would be a surprise to see Gore until late in the year. I'll go ahead and nominate Alec Bohm. The Phillies' third base prospect is a former No. 3 overall pick who blew through three levels last year, finishing at Double-A and hitting a combined .305/.378/.518. The 21 home runs were nice, and he projects to hit 30-plus at the big-league level, but the really impressive thing about Bohm was his ability to control the strike zone. He fanned in just 13.5 percent of his plate appearances while walking 10.6 percent of the time. Those are elite numbers and to me, make it less likely that he'll feel overwhelmed at the big-league level. Bohm's glove is a question, though he did focus on defense in the offseason. The Phillies are looking to win now, and if question marks such as CF Adam Haseley and 2B/UT Scott Kingery start slowly, the Phillies could look to Bohm to spark the lineup.
