Rounding Third: Anti-Recency Bias Draft

We always tell subscribers, listeners, Twitter followers, anyone who will listen to us and some who won't, to not be overcome by recency bias. And then we turn around and bury Alex Bregman in our rankings and pump up Randy Arozarena! It's true, and I'm wildly guilty of doing so. It got me wondering, what would happen if we really committed to a team comprised of "Last Year's Bums," or "drafting off of 2020 rankings"? Obviously, any player that's injured or similarly out of a job would be stricken from the list of eligible players, but I bet you could draft a plausible team fully comprised of such players, stripping out all recency bias.

It's appealing to do that this year more than ever. Not only did we only have just 60 games last year, but the games were played under such vastly different conditions than in normal seasons that arguably it wasn't the same game. Among the conditions that were different besides the shorter schedule include:

• The geographic schedule
• The universal DH
• A livelier ball (*probably*)
• A minor league schedule to allow prospects to develop and be called upon as replacements.

My methodology is to use the last RotoWire Roundtable from last season, plus one of my 12-team NFBC drafts as a reality check, comparing against this year's NFBC ADP, to see if I could get players at that price. I'm going to try to write as I "draft" - but allow for some revisions to make sure all the positions fit. The idea here is to try to select players that plausibly could still have decent value this year - so it's not a strict "Last Year's Bums" article. I'm going to give myself the 1.7/2.6 picks in a snake draft, and will try to build a balanced team. I suspect that closers will give me the most trouble, given how important their role will be. Make sense? Let's dive in!

1.7 Christian Yelich (OF) - This is the easiest pick of the whole exercise. Yelich at worst was a top-three pick last season, only to really struggle out of the gate (1-for-27 with 12 strikeouts to begin the season) and not quite catch up. But he isn't hurt, he still hit the ball hard whenever he did make contact. I wouldn't be surprised to see his March ADP climb back up if he rakes this spring. If that happens, insert Cody Bellinger here.

2.6 (18) Francisco Lindor (SS) - This is admittedly borderline - Lindor doesn't always drop to 18 (range of 14-to-29 in the RotoWire Online Championship), but he's a no-brainer if available, chiming in as the sixth ranked player in our last Roundtable Rankings last year. He hit .258 over two months last season, but has a long run of better performance. I'm good with starting off hitter-hitter in the 12-team OC, more so than in the 15-team Main Event.

3.7 (31) Alex Bregman (3B) - Ok, so I'm starting to get a little nervous about not having an ace yet, but again, I've had some success drafting hitting-heavy early teams in the Online Championship, and Bregman was typically going in the second-round, sometimes even at the turn, last season. There's some risk associated with the hamstring this spring that could allow me to weasel out of the pick here, but with an ADP of 44, it was now or never. I didn't go with Nolan Arenado, who actually was going earlier last year, because there's a clear change of circumstance with him.

4.6 (42) Stephen Strasburg (SP) - For all that hand-wringing, I still got an ace in the fourth round! In my other drafts, I'm fading Strasburg, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'm allowed to take good news at face value. Stras is in "preparation mode, not rehab mode" this spring, which presumes that he'll be ready for Opening Day. With a risky ace, I'll need to take another starter soon, and definitely a third in the first 10 rounds.

5.7 (55) Gleyber Torres (MI) - Yeah, I know I need pitching, but Torres is screaming value here. You could also take Javier Baez just as readily. I don't mind taking a second shortstop this early - the pool of shortstops is better than those of second basemen, and I'm almost always filling my MI with a shortstop. Too bad Torres no longer has dual eligibility.

6.6 (66) Zack Greinke (SP) - "I love old pitchers." - Chris Liss, SXM Fantasy. 

There are competing schools of thought on Greinke. His 67:9 K:BB obviously is sublime, and while his velocity was down last season, he's not as reliant on fastball velocity as his peers. On the other hand, his velocity dropped nearly a full 3.0 mph last season. His September stats weren't very good, and he had to be pushed back in the playoffs due to a sore arm. But even then, he finished with a strong start against the Rays in the ALCS. This is a Last Year's Bums draft, after all, so let's add Greinke here.

7.7 (79) J.D. Martinez (UT) - It stinks that Martinez is DH-only this year, but maybe with a full season he squeezes in that OF-eligibility halfway through the season. More importantly, we have reasons (some might call excuses) for his two-month slump last year. The lack of video, and the lack of preparation for the season starting in late July. Is all well now? We're talking about a player that was going in the third round last season and is healthy now. He had three consecutive .300+ seasons with at least 36 homers before 2020 - this screams value. If you wanted to pass on J.D., you could wait and take Giancarlo Stanton (ADP 122) in the 10th round.

8.6 (90) Austin Meadows (OF) - COVID wrecked the start of Meadows' season and an oblique strain took care of the rest. In light of that, I'm ok dismissing the troubling K% spike from 22.2 to 32.9. He's also had "Best Shape of his Life" news this spring. I would be surprised if his ADP skyrockets this spring, like Yelich.

9.7 (103) Chris Paddack (SP) - Get a third pitch, pronto. Paddack's fastball velocity is fine, but it got pounded last year. Some reports suggest that it was just off a little bit last season. Ok, let's jump in with a third starter, pitching in Petco with the potential for a ton of run support. I'm so close to getting Austin Meadows (ADP 95) or Jose Altuve (ADP 98), but they fall just ahead of this slot on average, and obviously the room is starting to notice and quake in the face of my brilliant draft plan. 

10.6 (114) Kirby Yates (RP) - Let's take a chance on a reliever that was being drafted as a top-three closer last year. His elbow injury was not a ligament tear, but rather bone chips in the elbow. I'm not so obtuse to ignore the possibility that this could lead to TJS later on, but in many cases it does not. I just missed out on Kenley Jansen (ADP 112) here.

11.7 (127) Mike Moustakas (1B/2B) - Moustakas doesn't have 3B-eligibility this year, but because we already have Bregman, no big deal. I am playing chicken with Moustakas's 128-ADP, but let's go ahead and assume that I could get him now. Multiple injuries and a COVID-scare (false positive) messed with his season, but he had a .914 OPS in September.

12.6 (138) Victor Robles (OF) - Not every "Last Year's Bum" is old. Robles could very well tank, as have many other speedsters before him, but I'm going to hold my nose here and get one more speed piece, hoping I can fill some power holes with my remaining hitter slots. I could have gone with Jonathan Villar instead, and put Moustakas at first base, but (a) I have a 1B in mind, and (b) Villar's playing time is clearly in question with the Mets.

13.7 (151) Josh Bell (1B) - I've already seen some positive buzz on Bell on Twitter, and in draft rooms. He's going from the "despair all ye who enter here" environment in Pittsburgh to a favorable hitter's ballpark in DC, with a much better lineup. It's probably not a coincidence that I have three Nats already. That's one less Nat than pitchers on my squad, so I'll have to look to address that pronto.

14.6 (164) Frankie Montas (SP) - I'm being a *little* sneaky with this one. Montas's average pick is 164.87, even though on average he is the 162nd player being drafted in the Online Championship. But I think I might be able to get him here because of his positive COVID test and delayed start to spring training. With a full season, he should get enough time to ramp up, and rediscover the form that allowed him to strike out 13 in his final regular season start. And there's a consequence to this pick - I don't get to take a chance on Gary Sanchez (ADP 166).

15.7 (175) Corey Kluber (SP) - The Yankees liked him enough to give him $11 million for one season. That's good enough for me to take a chance for this exercise. You could just as easily go with Mike Soroka here.

16.6 (188) Mitch Garver (C) - Having passed on Sanchez, it's time to hit on a power-hitting catcher coming off of a bad season. An intercostal strain limited him last season, allegedly 'more than he initially thought,' upon video review. If I wanted to wait longer for a catcher, Kyle Schwarber (ADP 190) is available around this price.

17.7 (199) Miguel Sano (1B) - Back-to-back Twins! Yay! Sano also got a late start due to COVID and a neck strain last year. He's a strikeout machine (43.9 K% in 2020, but even in better years it was in the mid-to-high 30's), but also a hard-hit machine when he makes contact (57.3% hard-hit rate, third in baseball last year). He might also regain 3B-eligibility this season, as the Twins attempt to preserve Josh Donaldson.

18.6 (212) Andrew Benintendi (OF) - Ok, there's some concern about the lack of category juice with Benintendi, but this is the proverbial 'change of scenery' pick. Maybe Benintendi will stop trying to reinvent himself and revert back to the 2018 version.

19.7 (223) Archie Bradley (RP) - Phillies manager Joe Girardi has refused to name a closer yet, so it still could be Hector Neris instead of Bradley, but Bradley is the better pitcher that doesn't walk batters.

20.6 (236) James Paxton (SP) - Variations on a theme. Paxton was awful last year when he wasn't sidelined with a forearm injury, but there's a good chance he was pitching hurt even when he was out there. He hit 94 mph in front of scouts before signing with the Mariners, which gives hope that he could return to his high strikeout ways.

21.7 (247) Wilson Ramos (C) - Ramos had a tough year in New York and got replaced by James McCann, but is now in a better ballpark in Detroit, albeit surrounded by a much worse lineup.

22.6 (260) Mike Minor (SP) - Minor was a big disappointment last year (again, that's a feature not a bug of this exercise), but still had a 25.9 K%, so you can still see the upside. He's our ninth pitcher anyhow, so hopefully we can optimize his results by streaming properly.

23.7 (271) Avisail Garcia (OF) - Garcia reported to camp 35 pounds lighter than last season, and will no longer have to play center field with Lorenzo Cain returning. He'll be in a prime spot in the order, and theoretically pairs well with Christian Yelich on this team.

Full Roster:

C - Mitch Garver, Wilson Ramos
1B/3B/CR - Josh Bell, Alex Bregman, Miguel Sano
2B/SS/MI - Mike Moustakas, Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres
OF - Christian Yelich, Austin Meadows, Victor Robles, Andrew Benintendi, Avisail Garcia
UT - J.D. Martinez

SP - Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Chris Paddack, Frankie Montas, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Mike Minor
RP - Kirby Yates, Archie Bradley

I ... don't hate the overall results? The pitching is obviously going to be pretty volatile, and I'd likely use five of my seven reserve slots on pitchers, if not six or even all seven. It might be a little light on power, especially among the outfield slots. If you were looking to do this, what changes would you make? Let's see some alternate Anti-Recency Bias Teams!