Rounding Third: Anti-Recency Bias Draft

Rounding Third: Anti-Recency Bias Draft

This article is part of our Rounding Third series.

We always tell subscribers, listeners, Twitter followers, anyone who will listen to us and some who won't, to not be overcome by recency bias. And then we turn around and bury Alex Bregman in our rankings and pump up Randy Arozarena! It's true, and I'm wildly guilty of doing so. It got me wondering, what would happen if we really committed to a team comprised of "Last Year's Bums," or "drafting off of 2020 rankings"? Obviously, any player that's injured or similarly out of a job would be stricken from the list of eligible players, but I bet you could draft a plausible team fully comprised of such players, stripping out all recency bias.

It's appealing to do that this year more than ever. Not only did we only have just 60 games last year, but the games were played under such vastly different conditions than in normal seasons that arguably it wasn't the same game. Among the conditions that were different besides the shorter schedule include:

  • The geographic schedule
  • The universal DH
  • A livelier ball (*probably*)
  • A minor league schedule to allow prospects to develop and be called upon as replacements.

My methodology is to use the last RotoWire Roundtable from last season, plus one of my 12-team NFBC drafts as a reality check, comparing against this year's NFBC ADP, to see if I could get players at that price. I'm going to try to write as I "draft" - but allow for some revisions to

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Erickson
Jeff Erickson is a co-founder of RotoWire and the only two-time winner of Baseball Writer of the Year from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He's also in the FSWA Hall of Fame. He roots for the Reds, Bengals, Red Wings, Pacers and Northwestern University (the real NU).
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