MLB: Jeff Zimmerman's Fantasy Grab Bag

MLB: Jeff Zimmerman's Fantasy Grab Bag

Regret After the Euphoria?

This section focuses on questionable/suspect adds from the past weekend in the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship. These are 12-team roto leagues with 23-man active rosters and seven bench spots. 

The idea is to look to see if anyone was over-bid on (subjective, and honestly, not likely at this point in the season) or has little chance to live up to Sunday-night expectations.

PlayerAverage BidCount of Bid
Nicky Lopez$15131
Paul Sewald$13100
Jake Meyers$767
Daniel Lynch$764
Nestor Cortes$862
Michael Lorenzen$956
Frank Schwindel$849
Scott Barlow$748
Miles Mikolas$543
Eli Morgan$438
Tylor Megill$1135
Aledmys Diaz$533
Madison Bumgarner$1433
Ranger Suarez$733
Mychal Givens$1532
Kyle Freeland$531
Connor Joe$830
Vladimir Gutierrez$1026
Yasmani Grandal$826
Bradley Zimmer$625

Michael Lorenzen: While he got two saves over the weekend, one was in relief of Mychal Givens and the other was because Givens had thrown for two straight days. On Tuesday, the Reds brought in Lorenzen (who allowed 4 ER) before Givens. While there will always be some mixing-and-matching going on in the Reds' bullpen, Lorenzen doesn't look to be the closer.

Eli Morgan: He was scheduled for two starts (vs TEX, vs BOS) and has already allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP against Texas. His 27.7 GB% means most batted balls are in the air.

Regret After the Euphoria?

This section focuses on questionable/suspect adds from the past weekend in the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship. These are 12-team roto leagues with 23-man active rosters and seven bench spots. 

The idea is to look to see if anyone was over-bid on (subjective, and honestly, not likely at this point in the season) or has little chance to live up to Sunday-night expectations.

PlayerAverage BidCount of Bid
Nicky Lopez$15131
Paul Sewald$13100
Jake Meyers$767
Daniel Lynch$764
Nestor Cortes$862
Michael Lorenzen$956
Frank Schwindel$849
Scott Barlow$748
Miles Mikolas$543
Eli Morgan$438
Tylor Megill$1135
Aledmys Diaz$533
Madison Bumgarner$1433
Ranger Suarez$733
Mychal Givens$1532
Kyle Freeland$531
Connor Joe$830
Vladimir Gutierrez$1026
Yasmani Grandal$826
Bradley Zimmer$625

Michael Lorenzen: While he got two saves over the weekend, one was in relief of Mychal Givens and the other was because Givens had thrown for two straight days. On Tuesday, the Reds brought in Lorenzen (who allowed 4 ER) before Givens. While there will always be some mixing-and-matching going on in the Reds' bullpen, Lorenzen doesn't look to be the closer.

Eli Morgan: He was scheduled for two starts (vs TEX, vs BOS) and has already allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP against Texas. His 27.7 GB% means most batted balls are in the air. His 2.0 HR/9 may seem like it should regress downward, but his FanGraphs projections have him at a 1.7-1.9 HR/9 going forward. 

Aledmys Diaz and Jake Meyers: The pair needs to be rostered in most leagues … if playing every day. While they were in the lineup with Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman on the IL, the pair was expected to come off the IL and have since been reinstated. Diaz will just play when Bregman needs a rest, so he's likely a drop. Meyers on the other hand got the opportunity for at least another week of games with Chas McCormick going on the IL. 

Ranger Suarez: I had a couple of discussions with some of my co-captains over Suarez. His season-long stats looked great going into this week's two-step (1.47 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9). The problem was that his stats since becoming a starter weren't that great (3.09, 7.7 K/9, 6.9 BB/9). Also, he hadn't been able to make it to the fifth inning in any of his starts. My fears weren't justified when Suarez threw 6.2 IP in his first start of the week while allowing just one run and striking out seven batters.

Who's Playing Where

This section points out some playing-time situations to monitor over the weekend. 

Orioles Infield: Second baseman Jahmai Jones was just promoted to the majors, creating a playing time logjam in the infield. While Jones had a low Triple-A batting average (.238/.329/.417), he's been a productive hitter with 10 homers and 10 steals. Recently acquired Jorge Mateo (.356/.387/.492 with Baltimore) was playing second base. Ramon Urias (.272/.345/.427) may be the best hitter of the three. 

Reds Third Base: First off, Mike Moustakas (.215/.314/.400) and Eugenio Suarez have not been good (.171/.256/.370) and are now in a platoon. Neither get the needed counting stats with their limited production and playing time to stay rostered in shallow leagues. Someone like Emmanuel Rivera might be a better option. While Rivera isn't especially talented, at least he's playing every day. 

Rangers Infield: With Isiah Kiner-Falefa locked in at shortstop and Nathaniel Lowe at first base, Nick Solak (.648), Yonny Hernandez (.624 OPS), and Andy Ibanez (.697 OPS) are looking at splitting time between second and third base. All three have OPS marks under .700, so no one is forcing themselves into the lineup. If playing all the time, Hernandez is a source of steals, Ibanez has some power and Solak has some of both. The problem is that if they aren't playing every day, they just don't provide enough runs and RBI to be fantasy relevant.

Platoons to Attack

It's a tough week to roster any hitter in a strict platoon. Here are some of the better options.

Nationals (7 games, 7 vs RHP): Josh Bell typically cedes starts to Ryan Zimmerman against lefties. A full week against righties should mean a full week for Bell. 

Mets (7 games, 6 vs RHP): The two guys to take advantage of here are Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto. Like with the Nats' Bell, they may only get occasional starts against lefties, but more importantly, they get every start against opposing right-handers. 

Baltimore (6 games, 6 vs LHP): No obvious platoons.

Pittsburgh (6 games, 5 vs RHP): No worthwhile hitters.

Middle Relief Options

Decent starting pitching options can be hard to find, so here are five middle relievers who provide great ratios and some strikeouts. Also, because of how teams utilize them, they have a better-than-average chance of getting a win.

The picks are based on the following criteria from this article.

  • Contending Team:  Win% >= 45%
  • The manager has the tendency to use the pitcher in close games: gmLI >= 1.1
  • IP/G >= 1.0: Has average more than one inning.
  • The pitcher is getting strikeouts: K/G >= 1.1
  • The pitcher has the tendency to throw more than one inning: IP/G >= 1.1
  • Full schedule: At least six games the next week, preferably seven.
  • Available in leagues: Rostership under 50% in NFBC leagues

Here are this week's top five choices and my thoughts on a few of them:

NameGERAWHIPK/GWinsS+HoldsRoster%Games Next Week
Seth Lugo303.091.161.2380%7
Andrew Kittredge451.370.931.4898%7
Brent Suter492.971.321.212717%7
Garrett Whitlock361.051.111.95120%7
Chad Green523.030.861.472242%6

Brent Suter: He needs to be rostered in every league at this point. His 12 wins are tied for fourth in the majors. The rate of wins might actually go up as the Brewers begin to limit how much their staters throw while preparing for the playoffs.

Chad Green, Garrett Whitlock and Andrew Kittredge

With all three teams battling for playoff spots in the AL East, each should continue to be used in close games.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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