DraftKings DFS Picks NFL Week 1: Top Lineup Strategy

The first Sunday of the NFL season has finally arrived, and we have a 12-game slate on DraftKings. As unpredictable as the league is, Week 1 is especially volatile as there are new coaches, new players and a lack of previous stats to analyze. 

Embracing that uncertainty is the name of the game for tournaments. There are few better weeks to take chances than this one. The large-field tournaments have historically been won with lineups where cumulative ownership is less than 100 percent. That means only a few chalky players paired with a few who aren't popular at all. If you have a strong take about a player not mentioned in this article or on your favorite podcast, this is the time to gamble. The leverage gained by fading chalk in favor of something less popular is what vaults lineups to the top. 

If you're only interested in rostering the "best plays," stick to cash games. In this breakdown I've highlighted the top options for that format and included some ideas for tournament stacks as well. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Christian McCaffrey at SEA ($7,300)

I feel almost obligated to highlight McCaffrey because he projects as the best point-per-dollar value on the board by considerable margin. He's underpriced and would be a no-brainer if he hadn't popped up on the injury report Thursday with the same calf injury that sidelined him last season. It's thought to be just maintenance but it will be important to monitor news over the weekend. I plan on rostering him unless we hear something credible about him being limited. It isn't like we're devoid of options though, as there are about 10 RBs priced below McCaffrey who look like strong value options. I'm strongly considering James Conner ($6,100), based on his cheaper price and prime matchup against the Saints. His salary had risen to $7,400 by Week 17 of last season after consecutive games of 22.2, 33.8 and 29.6 fantasy points. 

• WR Emeka Egbuka at ATL ($4,600) 

Similar to RB, there are about 10 WRs who I could've comfortably highlighted this week, but I'll start with Egbuka because he's the cheapest. Tampa Bay drafted him in the first round and he looked the part in preseason. They'll need him to step up right away with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. He's underpriced for that role and I'm almost certain this is the most affordable we'll ever see him. Mike Evans ($6,600) also figures to be a target monster as long as the Bucs are shorthanded at WR. He and Drake London ($6,500) project similarly well and will be similarly popular. Take your pick. If you're stuck in the $5K range, consider Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) against a pourous Bengals defense or Tetairoa McMillan ($5,200) for his debut in sunny Jacksonville.  

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Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jayden Daniels at NYG ($7,000)

QB Joe Burrow at CLE ($6,900)

QB Drake Maye vs. LV ($5,500)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. CAR ($5,300)

QB Daniel Jones vs. MIA ($5,100)

RB Christian McCaffrey at SEA ($7,300)

RB De'Von Achane at IND ($6,900)

RB Jonathan Taylor vs. MIA ($6,800)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. DET ($6,700)

RB Chase Brown at CLE ($6,600)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. ARI ($6,300)

RB James Conner at NO ($6,100)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at CLE ($8,100)

WR Mike Evans at ATL ($6,600)

WR Drake London vs. TB ($6,500)

WR Tee Higgins at CLE ($6,400)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. CIN ($5,400)

WR Tetairoa McMillan at JAX ($5,200)

WR Jakobi Meyers at NE ($5,100)

WR Emeka Egbuka at ATL ($4,600)

TE Trey McBride at NO ($6,200)

TE David Njoku vs. CIN ($4,700)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. TEN ($3,800)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers at NYJ ($3,300)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals at NO ($3,200)

D/ST San Francisco 49ers at SEA ($2,900)

D/ST New York Jets vs. PIT ($2,800)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders at NE ($2,600)

D/ST New York Giants vs. WAS ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Cincinnati Bengals (26.5) at Cleveland Browns (21)

BENGALS

No offense provided more fantasy goodness than Cincinnati's last season, in part because they found themselves in so many shootouts. Their defense was among the worst in the league, and it seems as though not much has changed heading into the new season. Joe Burrow ($6,900) is coming off his best statistical season and has the best odds to lead the league in passing yards. It helps that he has two studs to throw to in Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,400). Chase is fresh off an all-world season in which he averaged a whopping 24.6 DraftKings points. Higgins has shown nearly as high of a ceiling, evidenced by his 44 fantasy points in Week 17 against the Broncos. Mike Gesicki ($3,600) finished last season on a high, catching 18 passes on 22 targets and makes perfect sense for salary relief in double stacks. I wouldn't worry about the addition of Noah Fant, as the Bengals have always used three or four TEs and Gesicki lines up all over the field, sometimes as the de facto slot WR. Chase Brown ($6,600) can be paired with either QB given his receiving upside but I'd prefer him with Flacco.

BROWNS

Bengals games finished first in combined points last season and fifth in combined plays. An explosive offense with a bad defense is just the spot to target when thinking about game stacks. The Browns aren't expected to be good, but with Joe Flacco ($4,900) under center, they're at least relevant for fantasy. We've seen him able to push a pace and throw for big volume, despite his advanced age and lack of mobility. He helped Colts' pass-catchers have some nice games last season and should do that for Cleveland as long as they'll let him. Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) and David Njoku ($4,700) are his main weapons, with both projecting among the top point-per-dollar values at their respective positions. Cedric Tillman ($4,400) is worth a flyer in larger-field GPPs as a less popular leverage option with plenty of upside. 

• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase or WR Higgins + TE Njoku
• Favorite Browns Stack: QB Flacco + WR Chase or WR Higgins + TE Njoku

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.5) at Atlanta Falcons (23)

BUCCANEERS

The two Atlanta-Tampa Bay games from last season averaged 61.5 points as both teams play fast and feature elite talent on offense. The Bucs had the second-highest explosive play rate (13 percent) in the league, led by Baker Mayfield ($6,600), who's coming off a monster year in which he threw for 43 TDs and ran for another three. He'll be without Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, so the stage is set for Mike Evans ($6,600) and Emeka Egbuka ($4,600) to draw the lion's share of targets. Evans topped 20 fantasy points seven times last season (including the only time he faced Atlanta) and this is as good a matchup as any to do it again. Cade Otton ($3,900), who was banged up in the preseason, is expected to be full go and viable in double stacks. As is Bucky Irving ($7,100) coming off a breakout rookie campaign. I'd prefer pairing him with Penix, but his pass-catching prowess means he works with Mayfield too. Either way, he offers nice leverage as he won't be very popular given all the cheaper value at RB.  

FALCONS

Tampa Bay's defense faced the league's highest opponent neutral pass rate last season. The unit is a notorious pass-funnel led by All-Pro run-stopper Vita Vea, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday to manage a foot injury. Assuming he plays, it looks like a tough matchup for Bijan Robinson ($8,000) and a favorable one for Michael Penix ($5,600) and the passing game. Drake London ($6,500) projects among the top value at WR and will be popular as a result. He torched the Bucs in their corresponding meeting last season for 12 catches, 154 yards and a score. I'll probably avoid Darnell Mooney ($5,000) as he works his way back from a shoulder injury. I'd rather take a chance on Kyle Pitts ($4,300), though I wouldn't fault anyone at this point for being done with him. It is notable, however, that his best two games last season came against Tampa Bay and the talk around him this summer has been positive.

• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Evans and/or Egbuka + TE Pitts
• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Penix + WR London + WR Egbuka +/- TE Pitts 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Malik Nabers + WR Deebo Samuel

QB Kyler Murray + WR Chris Olave or WR Rashid Shaheed + TE Trey McBride

QB Kyler Murray + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Marvin Harrison or TE Trey McBride

QB Brock Purdy + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba + WR Ricky Pearsall or TE George Kittle

QB Jordan Love + RB Jahmyr Gibbs + WR Matthew Golden or WR Romeo Doubs

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins + WR Puka Nacua or WR Davante Adams

QB Bryce Young + WR Tetairoa McMillan or WR Xavier Legette +/- WR Brian Thomas

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Brian Thomas + WR Tetairoa McMillan or RB Chuba Hubbard

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at CLE ($8,100)

Chase pretty much lapped the field last season on his way to the triple crown. I really don't see much of a reason not to get some exposure considering that his ownership is expected to stay in check and there's easily enough value to afford him. I think we'll see the Bengals in plenty of shootouts this season given their highly suspect defense. 

• WR Nico Collins at LAR ($7,400)

Collins stands out as a top leverage option with others priced above and below him expected to be more popular. He should see a bump in usage due to the absence of Christian Kirk and Joe Mixon. It's also a favorable matchup against the Rams, who got torched by No. 1 WRs last season. 

Honorable Mention: TE Trey McBride ($6,200)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Tony Pollard at DEN ($5,700)

Normally I'd really like Pollard here, priced at a discount and set for the majority of the work in the absence of Tyjae Spears. This week however, the matchup feels prohibitive as Denver boasts an elite defense and considerable home field advantage at altitude. Cam Ward will be making his debut and I worry about the Titans' ability to move the ball and keep things competitive. We'll have much better opportunities to roster Pollard and the Titans in the near future. Cheaper RBs I'm considering this week instead include Kenneth Walker ($5,900) and Jaylen Warren ($5,200). I'd also understand taking a chance on one of the exciting rookies, RJ Harvey ($5,800) or TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500), both of whom have plus matchups. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Tetairoa McMillan at JAX ($5,100)

Similar to what I said about Emeka Egbuka, I think this is the cheapest we'll see McMillan priced this season. By almost all accounts he can do it all as a pass-catcher. He should lineup all over the field and run just about every type of route. The Panthers will need him too, after they traded Adam Thielen and lost Jalen Coker to injury. They have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars that has shootout potential considering the lack of defense on both sides, and it should provide a great opportunity for McMillan to have a big game on his debut. 

Honorable Mention: WR Jerry Jeudy ($5,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Drake Maye vs. LV ($5,500)

QB Justin Fields vs. PIT ($5,400)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. CAR ($5,300)

QB Daniel Jones vs. MIA ($5,100)

QB Joe Flacco vs. CIN ($4,900)

RB Jaylen Warren at NYJ ($5,200)

WR Jauan Jennings at SEA ($4,900)

WR Matthew Golden vs. DET ($4,900)

WR Michael Pittman vs. MIA ($4,900)

WR Emeka Egbuka at ATL ($4,600)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. ARI ($4,600)

WR Ricky Pearsall at SEA ($4,500)

WR Cedric Tillman vs. CIN ($4,400)

WR Romeo Doubs vs. DET ($4,300)

WR Xavier Legette at JAX ($4,200)

TE Mike Gesicki at CLE ($3,600)

TE Brenton Strange vs. CAR ($3,300)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders at JAX ($2,900)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Christian McCaffrey at SEA

McCaffrey (calf) is listed questionable after showing up on the injury report Thursday. We might not get definitive news until Sunday. There are plenty of other good RBs to consider if you'd rather avoid the risk. His ownership will almost surely be less than it would've otherwise. 

Weather

• As of Friday, there isn't much to be concerned about other than scattered showers in New England. As always, it's better to check the forecasts closer to kickoff Sunday.