One of the fastest growing forms of DFS Football is Underdog Battle Royale drafts. For those who have yet to play the first it is half-PPR scoring where you compete in a snake style draft to build your roster. Each draft consists of 6 players and 6 rounds. You draft 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. So doing the math in each draft 36 total players are drafted. Each draft pool competes against all of the other drafts within a given contest for the top prize.
Without going too in depth into the overall strategy, this means that at most players can only appear on 16.7% of rosters (one-sixth) since they at most can only be taken once per draft. However, most of the top players are drafted in nearly 100% of contests. So overall, the strategy is to mix the high conviction high scorers (Jonathan Taylor) with a lower rostered piece or stack that separates from the mid to late round players at the same position.
My goal here is to leverage the RotoWire projections to see where a player who will be drafted in nearly all individual drafts may have a similar projection to someone with a low expected draft percentage. To use some simple benchmarks all fades will be players with an ADP of 30 or lower and the 'low-rostered' players will all have an ADP above 34. While this may not seem like a big gap as ADP approaches 36 rostership rates drop precipitously.
There will eventually be a deeper dive into scoring benchmarks but for the purposes of this article we are going to look for the below scores from each position
- QB - 22+
- RB - 20+
- WR - 16+
- TE - 10+
QB Fade: Drake Maye 
QB3 ADP 24.4
Maye has been one of the best stories of the 2025 NFL season as he leads the Patriots on a playoff push. He has shown elite efficiency and the ability to get the ball downfield and that combined with a strong rushing floor has made him a strong QB play this season.
Why the Market May Be Wrong
With the single positions (QB/TE) the top projected guys do tend to see their ADP match the projection. It is rare that a top three or four QB by ADP does not have a strong projection to back it up. Maye has the projection, but I think it may be more fragile than the numbers suggest. The Falcons have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. New England blitzes at a high rate and Maye is someone who even with his success takes on a lot of pressure. The Patriots OL has been better but is not quite as good as many of their numbers suggest. Maye carved up a very good Browns defense last week but the Falcons defense could provide a different test that he has not quite seen this season. The projections do still give him a 42 percent chance to hit the 22 point threshold.
Why The Projections May Be Wrong
Maye has just simply been exceptional and has shown an ability to make big plays happen against almost any defense. Myles Garrett alone had five sacks last week versus Maye and it did not stop him at all. He was able to score 27 points on the back of three TD passes. Maye's rushing ability gives him a floor as well and we have not seen him also add the rushing TD to these big passing weeks. The Falcons' defense was just torn apart by a terrible Miami offense so the Patriots may be able to do the same this week.
QB Target: Mac Jones 
QB18 ADP 35.9
While Brock Purdy has yet to be officially ruled out, it appears that Mac Jones will be getting the start. The projections do not love Jones quite as much as they would have Purdy but his projection is baking in his previous performance and does not realize that he has been solid with Kyle Shanahan calling plays.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Historically, the 49ers have been an offense with a near neutral PROE that also coincides with a middle of the pack xPass. This season, due to defensive issues, they are slightly elevated in terms of xPass and have a higher PROE. This leads to a ton of pass attempts even in games with Jones as the starter as he has three starts with 39+ pass attempts. The Giants have been experiencing injuries in the secondary and have been trending downward against the pass the last few weeks. The Giants should be able to keep up offensively in this one and play fast enough to raise the overall play volume. The projections give Jones a 2 percent chance of exceeding 22 points which is obviously lower than Maye but he should be at a fraction of the rostership. Against a much better defense last week Jones put up 19 points just shy of the point totals we're looking for here. There just is not enough time for Jones to get to the proper levels of rostership that would make this projection a bad play. The game total and line has also held steady around 48 and -2.5 even with the Jones start so Vegas seems to think the offense has similar expectations.
Why The Market May Be Right
With jones in, the 49ers QB play loses a bit of it's ceiling. While Shanahan has trusted Jones, the ceiling case likely does not come unless the Giants can push them. The Giants' defense struggles against RBs allowing the highest YPC in the league. The 49ers may be able to just lean on Christian McCaffrey here and not need their QB to do much. The spread is also a tighter 2.5 here but with the Cam Skattebo injury and the other injuries on the offensive side of the ball the Giants offense just may not be able to keep up. Jalen Hurts only needed 20 pass attempts last week so there just may not be enough volume to get the QBs to high enough scores.
RB Fade: James Cook 
RB6 ADP 13.8
With D'Andre Swift being ruled out, my favorite fade was taken off the board. This brings us to the very tough to follow fade on Cook. He ran for over 200 yards last week so this definitely does not feel great.
Why The Market May Be Wrong
One of the biggest criticisms of Cook is that his snap shares barely break 50%. However, he does still get a ton of rushing volume even if he is not out there all the time. He is becoming a zero in the passing game with no catches in each of the last three weeks. The Chiefs have been an extremely difficult matchup for RBs the last few weeks including holding Jahmyr Gibbs to a sub-four YPC. Since Cook is not at all involved in the pass game of late, is this game gets out of hand and the Bills need to abandon the run, he could find his opportunities dry up and he could post a score that kills you at his level of rostership.
Why The Projection May Be Wrong
Cook has been managing to defy projection systems for the last several seasons. Despite low snap numbers he consistently gets a ton of work and is hyper efficient with that work. Even with Josh Allen he does still get a decent chunk of the team's Red Zone work giving him a high projected TD chance. The Bills seem committed to running the ball and these Chiefs bills games have often remained close so the chances of Cook being game scripted out may be low. The low carry projection just may not matter in the end and Cook can score almost anytime he touches the ball.
RB Target: Jaylen Warren 
RB11 ADP 33
Warren is not coming off quite the same level of success as Swift but the Steelers' RB is seemingly trending in the right direction. The projections see a back with a larger share of the work in an offense that heavily leans on its backs. His Week 9 median projection is about two points higher than Swift's.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Unlike Swift, Warren has seen his snap share grow since the Steelers' bye week peaking at 65 percent in Week 7 and once again coming in at 64 percent last week. He has had 21 and 16 opportunities as well in each of the last two weeks. His matchup going against the Colts defense is nowhere near as appealing as the Bengals matchup but the Colts are still middle of the pack in terms of YPC allowed to RBs. More importantly they have allowed the fourth most target to RBs and Warren is heavily involved in the passing game for the Steelers. He has three games with at least four receptions this season and Aaron Rodgers notoriously loves to check the ball down to his backs. The Colts have been a fantastic offense often jumping to huge leads but Warren's passing game role should make it so he does not get game scripted out of this one. The projections give Warren a 12 percent chance of eclipsing the 20 point mark.
Why The Market May Be Right
Warren has only scored one TD this season and has only seen 4 red zone carries in the last weeks. Rodgers historically likes to throw in close which could easily hamper the ability for Warren to find the endzone. Due to the low TD expectations for him, this is a massive bet on volume and efficiency and with the Steelers as underdogs against one of the league's best teams the volume just may not be there. With some questions around the efficiency and a possible low TD expectancy, Warren may be a high volume player who struggles to break the 10 point mark.
WR Fade: Michael Pittman 
WR10 ADP 29.2
WR is actually being drafted fairly well in my opinion thus far in the week. Ladd McConkey and DK Metcalf each had an argument to be the pick here at WR8 and WR9 but instead let's go with the Colts' WR1.
Why The Market May Be Wrong
The Colts offense has been absolutely clicking, and in the last few weeks, Pittman has been one of the main beneficiaries. However, the projections view the Colts' situation with some skepticism. We are projecting four different Colts for a 10+ percent target share, and while Pittman is one of those for a team averaging around 30 pass attempts per game, that does not leave a ton of volume. This makes Pittman an extremely TD dependent play to reach the 16 point mark. However, in his last five games he has scored in four but has only eclipsed the 16 point mark twice. The projections do give Pittman a 14 percent chance of reaching this mark which is solid but aligns him with players like Keenan Allen and Wan'Dale Robinson who are not exactly world beaters.
Why The Projections May Be Wrong
This Colts offense has been record setting thus far. They are consistently destroying their opponents and have been converting drives into scoring better than almost any other team in league history. Pittman has three games in his last five with at least nine targets which is plenty of volume for a player of Pittman's skill. This game has a really high total at 50.5 and the Colts have possibly not needed to throw as much due to their blowout scripts. Their relatively low 30 pass attempts per game could jump up adding more volume upside for Pittman. The Steelers defense has also only allowed three rushing TDs to RBs which could force the Colts to try to throw to score more often. The combination of higher volume possibilities combined with the high total might make Pittman a perfectly valid play.
WR Target: Chris Olave 
WR18 ADP 35.2
After consistently coming up short of his projection expectations, Olave has started to turn the corner. This week he faces the Rams and gets a new QB as the Tyler Shough era begins in New Orleans.
Why The Projections May Be Right
New coach Kellen Moore has the Saints playing at an exceptionally fast pace which leads to massive pass attempt numbers if the team falls behind. After taking over for Spencer Rattler, Shough attempted 30 passes in the second half last week. Olave has 10+ targets in six of his eight games this season, leading to volume that really can't be matched by others. The Saints are 14 point underdogs which should lead to a ton of volume and Shough will likely want to pepper his WR1 with volume. While the projections do not give a large TD probability to Olave if he is able to find the end zone on top of his massive volume. Projections give Olave a 22 percent chance to eclipse the 16 point mark.
Why The Market May Be Right
The market is seemingly treating Shough like one of the worst QBs in the league. This is entirely possible and may even be likely. On the 30 attempts that Shough had last week he only completed 17 of them for 128 yards. That is a fairly poor yards per attempt number. Vegas also seems to be skeptical of Shough as most places have seen the line on this game drop from around 11.5 to the 14.5 you see at many places today. The market is betting that the Saints will struggle to score a TD and move the ball making it extremely difficult for Olave to reach the point scoring levels we need. With all the uncertainty around the situation that argument makes a ton of sense.
TE Fade Oronde Gadsden 
TE5 ADP 27.9
Gadsden has been one of the best breakout stories of the 2025 season. The Day 3 pick has scored over 40 half-PPR points in his last two games at a position where very few rookies see this level of success.
Why The Projections May Be Right
This is an extremely hard position to find a fade for this week, as Gadsden is projected as the TE6 on this slate (Sam LaPorta is higher by 0.1) but we need a fade. I almost chose McConkey earlier so let's use some similar ideas to why I don't love the Chargers' pass catchers. The Titans defense has been awful and they are getting destroyed in all phases of the game. The Chargers have been extremely pass heavy as a team they have the third highest PROE in the league. The Titans defense has seen the lowest xPass in the league. So even if we think the Chargers will throw more than expected, their expected pass rate should be so low that the volume regresses heavily. With lots of talented mouths to feed, this makes all of these guys have highly fragile projections. While yards can do a ton at the TE position, the separators are still the guys with high TD equity. There will be plenty of weeks to play Gadsden and for me this is not one of them. Gadsden has a 51 percent chance to break the 10 point threshold we care about for TEs and while there may not be others with better chances than him going later, we can give up a small bit of projection for more contrarian options.
Why The Market May Be Right
Some weeks, the market seems to have it perfect - after all, only six TEs get drafted and on this slate we happen to have five of the very best guys. Gadsden has played over 70 percent of snaps in the last three weeks and the breakout is real. The Chargers have an exceptional team total and as stated earlier are facing a terrible Titans defense. Even if the volume is not there, Gadsden has shown enough big play ability that he can get there with low target numbers. In Week 8 he scored 16.2 half-PPR points with only five targets. For TEs all we care about is the TD so the massive volume may not matter for this matchup.
TE Target: Theo Johnson 
TE12 ADP 35.9
Johnson has quickly become one of Jaxson Dart's favorite targets with four TDs since Dart took over. With the Cam Skattebo and possibly Daniel Bellinger injuries Johnson has room to grow the role even more.
Why The Projections May Be Right
With TE we are making a little bit more of a leap of faith and trying to add some more context on top of projections. The Giants offense has moved the ball exceptionally well and has become run heavy in the red zone. Despite scoring well since Dart took over he only averages three RZ pass attempts per game. Despite this, Johnson still has a TD projection in line with guys like Gadsden and not too far behind Brock Bowers and Tyler Warren. The bet we are making is that the Giants without Skattebo will throw more in the red zone and Johnson is the beneficiary. Over the last four weeks, Johnson leads the team with one red zone target per game. If the overall attempts grow, Johnson could see his number grow as well. This leaves him in position to possibly stack multiple TDs. The projections give him a 15 percent chance to score 10+ points which is obviously a much lower number than Gadsden but similarly to others bets. If he scores the two TDs at his rostership, he could be a massive leverage piece.
Why The Market May Be Right
Overall, the market seems low on the Giants' offense this week. Despite a fairly high game total, no Giant has an ADP lower than 34. While Vegas does not seem to be worried about the Giants offense, giving them around a 23 point team total, no one really wants to click on them. The offense has been vastly improved with Dart at the helm but the loss of their sparkplug in Skattebo after already losing an All-Pro caliber WR in Malik Nabers may just be too much for Dart to overcome. The offense as a whole could fail and even if Johnson gets a nice target share, they just might not have enough Red Zone work for him to get into the endzone one time let alone twice.
