WR Tiers and Rankings (Top 75)

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Updated on September 2, 2020 4:21PM EST

I'm back from a bit of a hiatus after spending the past month working on Rotowire's annual NFL preview magazine (shameless plug - link here). I did RB rankings and tiers in early May right after the 2020 NFL Draft, followed by QB rankings and tiers a few days later.

In terms of news, not much has changed over the past month and a half, with the one big exception being Deebo Samuel's Jones fracture — a foot injury that usually requires 8-12 weeks for rehab and recovery. He'll be up against the clock to suit up for Week 1, with multiple injury experts (including Matthew Betz and Edwin Porras) suggesting a quicker return to play likely would correspond with a lower level of performance and/or higher risk of re-injury.

Samuel, of course, will take a big hit in my rankings, while rookie first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk gets a tiny bump. These rankings are intended for full-PPR, redraft leagues, as the vast majority of drafts taking place right now (mostly best ball) use this format.

(Rankings updated September 2)

Tier 1

1. Michael Thomas

(Rankings updated September 2)

Tier 1

1. Michael Thomas

The addition of Emmanuel Sanders and possibility of a healthier Alvin Kamara should allow the Saints to spread the ball around a bit more, but that's not quite enough to push Thomas out of his own tier if we're talking about full-PPR scoring (which we are). His career lows are 92 catches (2016), 121 targets (2016), 1,137 yards (2016), five touchdowns (2017), 69.8 percent catch rate (2017) and 8.4 yards per target (2017). Even if he drops back to his 2017-18 volume of 9.3 targets per game — which may or may not happen — we'd still be talking about triple-digit catches, 1,200+ yards and at least a handful of touchdowns. Thomas turned 27 in March, and his last noteworthy injury was a foot sprain in Dec. 2016.

Tier 2

2. Tyreek Hill

3. Davante Adams

4. Julio Jones ATL

5. DeAndre Hopkins ARI

Hill averaged 71.7 receiving yards per game last season despite being forced out early with injuries in two of his 12 appearances. He was otherwise the same guy from 2018, minus a bit of rushing production. Adams and Jones are the safer bets to pile up huge target numbers, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Hill pushing toward 150 one of these years. Meanwhile, Hopkins brings up the rear of the tier, though not for lack of ceiling. I'm just a bit wary of the unknown, especially given the suboptimal track record of wide receivers in Year 1 with a new team. Of course, most of those guys switching teams weren't 28-year-old HOF-caliber players — that's why I still have Hopkins at fifth overall.

Tier 3

6. Chris Godwin

7. D.J. Moore CAR

8. Allen Robinson CHI

9. Odell Beckham CLE

10. Mike Evans

Among this group, Robinson was the 2019 leader in both targets (154) and target share (27 percent), joining MT, Hopkins, Adams and Jarvis Landry as one of five players to reach the 26-percent threshold in active games. Robinson is headed for a similar role this year, albeit with Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky as his quarterbacks. FWIW, I really struggled to rank Robinson vs. Moore vs. Beckham vs. Godwin at 6-9 — any order there works just fine for me. Evans is the straggler of the group, as an improved Bucs team is unlikely to match last year's 630 pass attempts and almost certainly will throw downfield less often with Tom Brady replacing Jameis Winston.

Tier 4

11. A.J. Brown TEN

12. Calvin Ridley ATL

13. Kenny Golladay DET

14. Adam Thielen MIN

15. JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT

16. Amari Cooper DAL

17. Robert Woods LAR

18. Terry McLaurin WAS

19. Courtland Sutton DEN

20. Cooper Kupp LAR

21. DJ Chark JAX

22. Tyler Lockett SEA

23. DK Metcalf SEA

24. Keenan Allen LAC

I'm definitely not the first person, nor the last, to point out that there isn't much difference between the wide receivers being drafted in the third round and those going in the fifth. Each of these dudes has a reasonable path to a top-5 WR finish — be it Woods getting 150+ targets and triple-digit catches in a high-volume passing game, or Metcalf going for double-digit TDs and 11 YPT on more modest volume.

Tier 5

25. DeVante Parker MIA

26. Michael Gallup DAL

27. Stefon Diggs BUF

28. Marquise Brown BAL

29. Tyler Boyd CIN

30. T.Y. Hilton IND

It kills me to rank a 26-year-old as talented as Diggs this low, but I worry that he's switching from a team that won't get him the ball to one that can't. Not that the Bills literally cannot get him the ball... just that Josh Allen's inaccuracy will cost Diggs about 150 yards over the course of a season.

Elsewhere, you might notice that relative to industry standard I have Gallup higher and Cooper lower. The production, apart from TDs, was awfully similar last season, and Gallup is the one who should have more growth to come.

Parker and Hilton don't lack for upside, but the former only has one good season on his ledger and could lose target share if Preston Williams is healthy, while the latter is a speed-dependent 30-year-old who has struggled with lower-body injuries in recent years.

Tier 6

31. Julian Edelman

32. Will Fuller HOU

33. Jarvis Landry CLE

I'd probably have Landry in Tier 4 if he was coming back from a healthy offseason rather than major hip surgery. Recent reports have been positive, but I worry that he'll have elevated risk for other injuries even if he makes it back for Week 1 and looks sharp.

Tier 7

34. Jamison Crowder NYJ

35. Marvin Jones DET

36. Sterling Shepard NYG

37. Christian Kirk ARI

38. A.J. Green CIN

39. Diontae Johnson PIT

40. Darius Slayton NYG

Slayton's rookie-year success was built on a handful of spectacular plays rather than consistently beating cornerbacks, but I still think it's a strong indicator of future success when a 22-year-old puts up 740 and 8. Then we have two guys who have proven they can get open consistently — Green and Jones — but are now in their 30s and coming off back-to-back injury-marred seasons.

Johnson seemingly went from being undervalued to slightly overvalued in a matter of days, garnering twitter hype on the same level as 2019 Curtis Samuel. I think Johnson will fare better than Samuel, but I also think James Washington at an ADP well outside the top 150 is the better value for chasing a Pittsburgh breakout.

Tier 8

41. CeeDee Lamb DAL

42. Deebo Samuel

43. Jerry Jeudy DEN

44. Brandin Cooks HOU

45. John Brown BUF

46. Golden Tate NYG

This tier kind of represents the drop off where I'm no longer excited to be drafting the players. But it isn't all disappointment, considering Williams and Shepard often remain available well past pick No. 100.

In case you were wondering... Samuel was in my fifth WR tier before he had foot surgery. I love his talent, but Kyle Shanahan likes to spread the ball around, and Deebo still needs to add a downfield competent if he's gonna produce more than 9 YPT in the long run. Guys who overwhelmingly rely on YAC tend to max out in that range even if they're really good at what they do (see: Tate, Golden).