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U.S. Open
The 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club at Brookline feels like one of the most hyped U.S. Open's in recent memory, and Tiger Woods even decided not to play due to his right leg injury. A lot of that has to do with the recent events in golf with several players deciding to forfeit their PGA Tour membership and jump ship to the Saudi-backed league called LIV Golf. After hosting their first of eight events scheduled for 2022 last week in London, many of those LIV Golf players will be coming back over to the U.S. to play this week at Brookline, where things are surely to get spicy in the media room and maybe out on the course as well in front of these rowdy Boston-area crowds.
All golf drama aside, it should be a truly fascinating tournament at one of the most historic clubs in America. Jon Rahm will be defending his U.S. Open title this week after taking home his first major championship last year at Torrey Pines. Rory McIlroy will be looking for that elusive fifth major championship title after successfully defending his RBC Canadian Open title last week. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas will both be looking to add a second major in 2022 after winning the Masters and US PGA Championship, respectively.
Profiling the Winner
The talk all week about The Country Club is going to be the greens. They are the second-smallest in all of major championship golf to only Pebble Beach. And the greens aren't just small at The Country Club, they are extremely undulating. We will see a number of good shots repel off these greens and quite a few three-putts as well. Obviously when referencing greens this small, GIR percentage and SG: Approach numbers are going to be very important. The first key, however, will be putting the ball in the fairways. In comparison with some of the recent USGA setups, The Country Club is on the shorter end at 7,264 yards. It will not promote "bomb and gauge" at all because finding this nasty rough off the tee will make it nearly impossible to keep the ball on these small greens. This will also be the third consecutive week on the PGA Tour that thick rough will blanket most of the perimeter of the greens. This will make scrambling very unpredictable and take away the advantage that the best short-game players have. Players will take a 60 degree wedge and just hope they have a good lie if they miss these tiny greens.
Category Picks
Hot Favorites
Players Included: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith
Guru Verdict: This week just has Rahm written all over it. He is the best driver in the world, ranking first on Tour in SG: Off-the-tee and total driving. That will be the first key to success at The Country Club this week. Rahm is also first in GIR percentage and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. The defending U.S. Open Champion has struggled with his short game and putting this season, but thick rough around the greens and severely slopping greens should play to his advantage because everyone will struggle in those departments.
U.S. Open Champions
Players Included: Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland
Guru Verdict: There is a lot of uncertainties in this group of former U.S. Open Champions. It feels crazy to say that Spieth is the safest bet, but that is absolutely the case this week. The 2015 Champion is driving it as good as he ever has in his career, ranking 24th in SG: Off-the-tee this season. Spieth is also 28th in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in scrambling. Putting has been his only weakness this season, but fast, undulating greens like these are exactly the kind of putting surfaces Spieth performs well on. He went 1st-2nd-T34-T7-T18 in his last five starts.
U.S. Stars
Players Included: Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, Cameron Young
Guru Verdict: I believe this is the trickiest category of the week. All of these players fit the profile for success at The Country Club. I'm going to go with Schauffele because he is the most accurate of the long drivers in this group and has the most buttoned-up game all the way through the bag right now. Schauffele's worst strokes gained category is putting at 62nd. He ranks fourth on Tour in total driving, 12th in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green, 16th in GIR percentage and fourth in three-putt avoidance. The 28-year-old has not finished worse than a T7 in five career starts at the U.S. Open.
Euro Challengers
Players Included: Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose
Guru Verdict: Hovland in a lot of ways has mirrored Rahm this season. He is striking it incredibly well, ranking 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in SG: Approach, second in total driving and 19th in proximity to the hole. But like Rahm, Hovland has also really struggled around the greens. As we mentioned with Rahm before, the chance factor of the longer rough around these greens should play to Hovland's advantage. The Norwegian has missed just one cut since last year's U.S. Open when he was forced to withdraw. During that timespan, Hovland has collected four worldwide wins and 14 top-20 finishes. He was also top-15 in his first two starts at the U.S. Open
International Stars
Players Included: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Abraham Ancer, Mito Pereira, Adam Scott
Guru Verdict: What a story it would be if Pereira came back after double-bogeying the 72nd hole with a one-shot lead at the PGA Championship and contended at the U.S. Open in the very next major. In all honesty, it seems far-fetched to come up with a scenario in which Pereira isn't a factor at some point at The Country Club after finishing top-30 in nine of his last 10 individual events. Pereira is an absolute flusher of the golf ball, ranking 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Approach, 22nd in total driving, seventh in GIR percentage and 21st in proximity to the hole.
U.S. Contenders
Players Included: Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Daniel Berger, Max Homa, Aaron Wise, Tom Hoge, Jason Kokrak
Guru Verdict: This is another extremely competitive category, but the difference for me is major record. Finau has four more top-10s in major championships than the rest of the group combined. After an uncharacteristically poor start to 2022, Finau has his mojo back, coming off an impressive runner-up finish in Canada, which was his third top-4 finish in his last five starts. The Utah native ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 19th in SG: Approach, 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 28th in GIR percentage.
Euro Outsiders
Players Included: Seamus Power, Victor Perez, Adri Arnaus, Thomas Pieters, Alex Noren, Francesco Molinari
Guru Verdict: Perez is coming in red hot, with a win at the Dutch Open and a T3 at the Porsche European Open. He has been the best ball striker among this group this season, ranking eighth in SG: Approach, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in GIR percentage on the DP World Tour. Molinari has the best recent form at the U.S. Open, with five finishes of T27 or better in his last six starts at this championship.
LIV Golf
Players Included: Phil Mickelson, Branden Grace, Talor Gooch, Louis Oosthuizen, Kevin Na, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed
Guru Verdict: There's a decent chance all of these guys will have to deal with a little heckling this week for their decision to take the money and run, but the guy that has the best chance to get past all that appears to be Oosthuizen. His record at the U.S. Open as of late has been spectacular. The South African went T7-3rd-2nd the last three years and has not finished outside the top 25 in this championship since 2014. Gooch has hit the ball the best this year of this group, ranking 21st in SG: Approach and 20th in GIR percentage on the PGA Tour.
Ryan's Selections
Hot Favorites: Jon Rahm
U.S. Open Champions: Jordan Spieth
U.S. Stars: Xander Schauffele
Euro Challengers: Viktor Hovland
International Stars: Mito Pereira
U.S. Contenders: Tony Finau
Euro Outsiders: Victor Perez
LIV Golf: Louis Oosthuizen
