Weekly PGA Preview: Wyndham Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Wyndham Championship

Sedgefield Country Club
Greensboro, NC

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for the final regular season event of the year.

A lot has been made about some of the big names currently on the outside looking in at a spot in the FedExCup Playoffs, and there's good reason as to why it's such a big deal. It doesn't take much to go from 70th on the list to 30th, so just getting in is huge. This isn't like a No. 8 seed squeaking into the NBA Playoffs only to get destroyed by the top seed -- okay that's a poor comparison as an eight seed just reached the Finals, but you get the point. With the way the system is set up, if you're in the field for the FedEx St. Jude Championship and you play well there, you have a chance to win it all. Sure, a lot of work needs to be done if you're near the bottom entering the first event, but one playoff win vaults you into a group of players near the top of the standings, so yeah, getting in is a big deal. Lee Hodges entered this past week's event in the 75th spot, and after his win he's now sitting pretty to make not only the first playoff event but the second. One more decent week and he could be in the TOUR Championship. 

It's crazy how fast things can turn around near the end of the season.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Tom Kim shot a final-round 61 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Sungjae Im and John Huh.

FAVORITES

Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)

The good news is that Matsuyama started with a 64 in Minnesota, but the bad news is he converted that into a T30. Matsuyama has a bunch of top-20s over the past few months, but he hasn't cracked the top 10 since early March. He seems to be rounding into form, but for whatever reason he can't string four good rounds together. The field isn't stacked this week, but he will still need his best to win and I don't see that happening.

Russell Henley (20-1)

With some big names in the field, I certainly didn't expect to see Henley open as a co-favorite, but you have to remember that most of the top guys are playing for playoff positioning, so they aren't playing great. Henley is no longer atop the board, but he's still up here because of his track record, which includes three consecutive top-10s in this event. With that said, I'm not sure Henley should be getting this much respect. He's had a bunch of top-20s this summer, but zero top-10 results since April.

Sungjae Im (22-1)

Im was also a co-favorite, and like Henley, his odds are based on his track record and not recent play. Im hasn't placed top-10 since early May, and while he does have a few decent finishes since then, he has been a bit erratic this season. Being unpredictable is often good in golf because you just need to get hot out of nowhere and suddenly you're in the mix, but considering Im is not getting long odds here, this doesn't seem like the play.

THE NEXT TIER

Denny McCarthy (25-1)

McCarthy is having a career-best season, but he still hasn't found a win. This would be a good spot to pick one up, as there is not a lot of high-end competition in the field. McCarthy doesn't need to be here, as he's 25th in the standings, but he's probably trying to solidify a top-30 spot. McCarthy is one of a few guys that will have little pressure on him this week, which could help him out quite a bit. His track record here is good enough to think that he could make a run and possibly wind up in the winner's circle.

J.T. Poston (30-1)

Poston is certainly trending in the right direction. He posted consecutive T6s in early July and is coming off a runner-up showing this past week. His track record here is all over the place, but he won here in 2019. Upside is all we're looking at when placing a win bet, and Poston has it.

Shane Lowry (35-1)

Lowry does have pressure on him this week, as he needs to play well to sneak into the top 70. He's currently in spot 76, so he will likely need a top-20 or so to crack the field for the playoff opener. Lowry is no stranger to pressure as a major champion, so perhaps I'm using the wrong word here. Instead, let's call it motivation. I'm sure Lowry isn't going to be heartbroken if he misses the playoffs, but there's still plenty of reason to try.

LONG SHOTS

Billy Horschel (60-1)

Look, if you can spot the Hodges in this field, more power to you. Personally, I'm looking for guys that are motivated and have some positive history here. These final two picks are guys in poor form, but good results here, which in my mind means they have a chance. Horschel needs something spectacular to happen to make the playoffs, and luckily for him, he gets to see this course. Horschel has missed just one cut here in 10 tries, and he finished top-12 here in three of his last four starts.

Webb Simpson (110-1)

On any other course I wouldn't even consider Simpson, but this is your annual reminder that he really knows how to get around Sedgefield. In an eight-year stretch from 2014-2021, Simpson finished T7 or better seven times! His only win here came in 2011, but he has been oh-so-close a number of times. He's nowhere near his best form, and that's why he's listed at this price. With that said, he usually manages to play well here, so if he stays in the mix until the weekend he has a chance.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Sungjae Im - If we're looking at the top, my guess is that Im will be more popular than Henley. Im has been all over the map recently, but he has posted some high-end finishes. I don't feel great about this pick, but I don't feel great about anyone this week to be honest.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Denny McCarthy - As mentioned above, McCarthy is one of few guys playing with house money. There's no pressure on him to do anything, as he is locked into the first two playoffs event. With that said, motivation will be high to solidify his spot among the top 30 in the standings.

Lightly-chosen Pick: J.T. Poston - With a lot of attention focused on those trying to work back into the top 70 like Lowry and Justin Thomas, a guy like Poston could slide in under the radar. Poston has a lot going for him, not the least of which was being in the chase last week, even though he wasn't really all that close to winning.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - This isn't to say I expect Thomas to play poorly, but I wouldn't expect too much from him either. He needs a good finish to make the top 70, but he was motivated last week and that didn't help. If he were playing on a course more familiar to him, maybe I'd have more faith, but he has only played this event three times.

This Week: J.T. Poston - It hasn't been my best season in this format. As proof, I'm going to exit with some decent names still on the bench, and that's never a good sign. Two names in this week's field that I could use are Sam Burns and Thomas, but I am going to forgo them in favor of Poston, who has a huge advantage in recent form.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Denny McCarthy ($10,700)
Middle Range: Mark Hubbard ($9,100)
Lower Range: Kevin Streelman ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: J.T. Poston - I didn't plan to double dip, but I've already used my first six or seven choices. I considered Simpson in this spot, but ultimately I can't quite trust a guy who hasn't played since the end of June and only played four times in the past three months. Poston has missed his fair share of cuts this year, but he has made four straight and should see the weekend again.

Previous Results