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DraftKings MMA Picks: UFC Vegas 107 DFS Preview
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 107. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis and fighter breakdowns for Saturday's card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) v. Maycee Barber (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Blanchfield ($9,100), Barber ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Blanchfield (-245), Barber (+200)
Blanchfield appeared to be well on her way to a title shot following a six-fight winning streak to begin her UFC run, but then she ran into Manon Fiorot in Atlantic City in her native New Jersey back in March 2024, dropping a lopsided unanimous decision in the process. To Blanchfield's credit, she was able to get back on track in a close, five-round unanimous decision win over Rose Namajunas last November.
Barber lost two straight from January 2020 to February 2021, but has since ran off six straight wins. Included in that stretch is a knockout over Amanda Ribas and a pair of split decision victories over Andrea Lee and Miranda Maverick. Maycee has been on the sidelines for quite a while. She last fought in March 2024 against Katlyn Cerminara. She was due to face Namajunas in July before withdrawing due to a health matter. By the time she steps into the Octagon on Saturday, Barber will be looking at roughly 15 months on the sidelines.
Blanchfield has gotten a reputation as a high-level wrestler, but it's a bit misleading. She's landed two takedowns in her last three fights and both of them came against Namajunas. That said, Erin is very tough to move once she gets on top of you. Against Rose, Blanchfield connected on one takedown in Round 3 and one in Round 5. In those two frames combined, she was credited with 7:46 worth of control time. It ended up being the difference between winning and losing in a bout scored 48-47 by all three judges.
Barber's grappling is very much matchup based. She put up four takedowns on Cerminara and two on Lee, but they're both noted weak defensive wrestlers. I have a difficult time believing Maycee is going to want to roll around with Blanchfield on the mat, if for no other reason than she is likely to have a very hard time getting back to her feet if she gets reversed.
Barber lacks technical fluidity on the feet, but she's very tough and very good in brawls. She has the ability to keep a high pace and is the more likely of the two to be effective at coming back if she falls behind on the scorecards early.
I feel like Maycee's strikes will be more meaningful despite the fact Blanchfield has landed 100-plus significant strikes three times in her UFC career, though the two most recent were five-round fights which went the distance.
When push comes to shove, I just don't see how Blanchfield is worth $2000 more in salary than Barber. I don't like it. At all. Erin deserves to be favored, but I feel a line of roughly -150 would be more fair. At the time of this writing, it's roughly 100 points more than that.
Win or lose, there's just too much value for me to pass on the Barber side. She's got a real chance if she's able to remain upright for at least three of the five scheduled rounds.
THE PICK: Barber
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (24-3-0, 1NC) v. L'udovit Klein (23-4-1)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($8,500), Klein ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-165), Klein (+140)
Gamrot is in a tough spot. He's shown far more good than bad in his UFC run, winning seven of his last nine fights dating back to April 2021, including victories over Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev, Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan. However, he had a judges decision go against him in a split decision loss to Dan Hooker last August, and it felt like a back-breaking result at the time. Gamrot will be 35 years of age in December and competes in arguably the deepest division in the sport, so there's little margin for error moving forward.
Klein is unbeaten in his last seven fights (6-0-1), so he's theoretically deserving of this shot, but a deeper dive reveals cause for concern. For starters, the one draw would have been a loss had Jai Herbert not been deducted a point for multiple low blows. His lone impressive victory during the stretch is over Ignacio Bahamondes, and five of the six wins have coming via decision. I have time for Klein and think he's a talented guy, but Gamrot represents a massive step up in competition.
Gamrot lives and dies with his grappling game. He's averaging 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and has racked up least four takedowns in six of his last seven fights. The only reason the Hooker bout was even close was because Gamrot was able to turn five successful tries into 4:59 worth of control time.
I don't particularly care for Gamrot's striking skills, but to his credit, he'll spam takedown attempts an entire fight in order to win. He absolutely knows where his bread is buttered.
Klein is very much a generalist, but he's a talented generalist. He has just enough power to be dangerous, but like Gamrot, is typically low volume on the feet.
The one thing Lu'dovit has going for him is the one thing you must have in order to beat Gamrot, and that's elite takedown defense. Klein is at 91 percent, and he's been taken down just twice in his entire UFC run, once by Herbert and once by Nate Landwehr.
I really wanted to get to Klein as an underdog play, but couldn't. The strong takedown defense is a plus in his favor, but Gamrot may only need one well-placed shot to turn the tide of the bout. I expect a close, competitive fight throughout.
THE PICK: Gamrot
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Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) v. Bruno Lopes (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Jacoby ($8,800), Lopes ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Jacoby (-185), Lopes (+155)
Jacoby entered his fight against Vitor Petrino last December with defeats in four of his prior five bouts. He was a mortal lock to be released if he came up short again, so of course he came through with a knockout win as a +250 underdog. He earned a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus for his efforts. It was a feel-good moment for Jacoby, but the truth of the matter is that he turned 37 years of age in April, and he's essentially competing on a fight-by-fight trial basis these days.
We have much less exposure to Lopes. He first competed on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2023, suffering a first-round knockout loss to Brendson Ribeiro. He got another chance last August and earned a UFC contract with a knockout win of his own. His official company debut came in January, a unanimous decision win over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. Lopes earned the reputation as a finisher on the Brazilian regional scene, but we've seen many guys like that is the past that proved not to be up to snuff at this level.
Jacoby may have 13 career wins via knockout, but he's essentially a point kickboxer at this point in his career. It's volume over power, with very little grappling mixed in. Even in the Petrino fight, a win, Dustin landed just 45 significant strikes in a fight which lasted a shade under 14 minutes. That's not going to get the job done long term.
Lopes deserves credit for recognizing a weakness in Gadzhiyasulov's armor and exploiting it. He simply spammed takedown attempts, firing off 14 and landing five, good for 9:19 worth of control time. They certainly weren't the most technical shots you will ever see, but it got the job done. Whether or not that's a sustainable long-term plan remains to be seen, but if it is, Lopes should go right back to the well against Jacoby, given the latter's limited ground game and 62 percent career takedown defense.
I don't really rate Lopes, but the bottom line is that I'm looking to fade Jacoby more often than not at this stage of his career.
The $8,800 price tag seems outlandish, even if you think he's likely to win, and I'm not sure I do.
This could very easily all blow up in my face given how little we know about Lopes' ability to fight at this level, but I feel good about the process regardless.
THE PICK: Lopes
Women's Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira (14-4-0) v. Macy Chiasson (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($8,200), Chiasson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Viera (-105), Chiasson (-115)
This fight was originally scheduled to take place in February before a Chiasson injury forced it to be postponed for a few months.
Vieira has been with the UFC for nearly nine years now, which is amazing when you think about it. She's fought a ton of notable names (Kayla Harrison, Holly Holm, Miesha Tate, Cat Zingano, Sara McMann) and is 4-4 in her past eight fights dating back to December 2019. That December 2019 bout against Irene Aldana was also the last time she didn't go to a decision. Vieira's fights are typically close, and more often than not, uneventful.
Chiasson is on her best brief run to date, with back-to-back stoppage wins over Mayra Bueno Silva and Pannie Kianzad on her resume. Time is working against Macy given she'll be 34 in late July. She's also traditionally struggled against better competition over the course of her career. A matchup against Vieira seems like fair middle ground. Ketlen is better than the likes of Bueno Silva and Kianzad and it will give us a chance to see if any of the brief gains Chiasson has made are potentially here to stay.
Ketlen's overall numbers aren't pretty. She absorbs nearly one significant strike more per minute (3.9 then she lands (2.92) and her grappling game is mediocre (1.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes).
Vieira is deceptively strong and pretty big for the division at 5-foot-8, but she's giving up three inches in height and four inches in reach to Chiasson, who at 5-foot-11 is about the biggest girl in the division.
Chiasson has landed more than 51 significant strikes just once in her entire UFC run. I would say the clearest path to victory for Vieira is to stuff a handful of takedown attempts and simply outwork Macy on the feet, but the latter is not exactly her strength.
I will say that Chiasson's improvements appear to be legitimate. She's big and physical, and she's starting to fight that way.
Between Macy's size edge, wrestling game, and Vieira's typical inactivity on the the feet, I'll take Chiasson in what is essentially a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Chiasson
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Zachary Reese (8-2-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Reese ($9,200), Todorovic ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Reese (-240), Todorovic (+195)
THE PICK: Reese
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5-0) v. Billy Goff (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Brahimaj (+270), Goff (-340)
THE PICK: Goff
Flyweight
Jafel Filho (16-3-0) v. Allan Nascimento (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Filho ($7,600), Nascimento ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Filho (+130), Nascimento (-155)
THE PICK: Filho
Catch Weight (180 pounds)
Trevin Giles (16-7-0) v. Andreas Gustafsson (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Giles (+130), Gustafsson (-155)
THE PICK: Gustafsson
Lightweight
Kurt Holobaugh (22-9-0, 1NC) v. Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Holobaugh ($7,500), Leavitt ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Holobaugh (+160), Leavitt (-190)
THE PICK: Leavitt
Lightweight
Marquel Mederos (10-1-0) v. Bolaji Oki (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Mederos ($7,300), Oki ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Mederos (+140), Oki (-170)
THE PICK: Oki
Women's Strawweight
Rayanne Amanda (14-8-0) v. Alice Ardelean (9-7-0)
DK Salaries: Amanda ($9,300), Ardelean ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Amanda (-270), Ardelean (+220)
THE PICK: Amanda
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 107 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
