This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
DraftKings players will like the look of Saturday's 13-fight slate, as committed wrestlers and grapplers can be found all over the fight card. There are plenty of other avenues for profit, as more than a couple of underdogs look live to win. We'll cover everything across five platforms, including a veteran looking to spoil the coming-out party of a fast-rising prospect in the main event. All lines are taken from the William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Mike Grundy ($8,500)
Grundy has been a tireless wrestler in the Octagon, shooting 38 times in three UFC fights. We saw Lando Vannata trouble the 35-year-old with pressure and offensive wrestling, but Makwan Amirkhani has been known to slow down late in fights, and forcing him into grappling exchanges should work to drain his gas tank even quicker. I expect Grundy to be the more active striker for as long as this fight stays on the feet, which should allow him to push "Mr. Finland" to the fence to work his takedown game.
Ilia Topuria ($9,300)
We've seen Topuria swing big in the right matchup, but it's likely that "El Matador" will return to his wrestling against an opponent in Jai Herbert who will enjoy an eight-inch reach advantage. While Herbert is a slick and powerful kickboxer, Topuria's unrelenting pressure should help close the space. It wasn't without difficulty, but Renato Moicano was able to ground "The Black Country Banger" five times before notching a submission in Round 2, and Topuria has been more defensively responsible than Moicano of late.
Nikita Krylov ($8,700)
Krylov will likely take a lot of confidence into his matchup with jiu-jitsu ace Paul Craig, as he is one of the only men in recent memory to keep up with light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeria in exchanges on the ground. If the grappling exchanges are anywhere close to even, this amounts to a huge advantage overall for the Kyokushin Karate black belt, who counts a knockout of fearsome heavyweight striker Walt Harris among his UFC wins. Krylov is also much lighter on his feet, which should allow him to land powerful kicks and combinations when at range.
Nathaniel Wood ($8,900)
Wood is a kickboxer who isn't afraid to wrestle when the situation calls for it, as he logged at least one takedown in four consecutive fights prior to his loss to Casey Kenney in October of 2020. Vince Morales will likely be bearing down on Wood with pressure from the opening bell, and we have seen Wood hit reactive takedowns in the past. Morales is credentialed as a state-champion wrestler in Idaho, but that didn't seem to matter in his bout with Drako Rodriguez, where he was grounded three times on five attempts.
Cody Durden ($7,100)
It's notable that Durden got tired trying to outwrestle Aori Qileng, but the 30-year-old continued fighting well into the third round, landing combinations and keeping his opponent on the back foot. Muhammad Mokaev is a bright prospect who can do a bit of everything, but the undefeated fighter is a bit too frantic, sometimes being taken off balance when he throws his shots. This should set up Durden for reactive takedowns, as well as counter shots as the two men stand in the pocket.
Jack Shore ($7,600)
In the battle of elite prospects, it's difficult not to opt for the undefeated Shore, who has begun his UFC career with four consecutive wins. A 100 percent takedown defense rate can be deceptive, but Shore has earned that mark in fights with credentialed wrestlers like Hunter Azure and Liudvik Sholinian. This will make things more difficult for Timur Valiev, who likes to dart in and out of the pocket but tends to carry his hands low, which left him open to several hard counter shots in his fight with Raoni Barcelos. This matchup is sure to provide interesting scrambles, but I think Shore will ultimately be a step ahead as he floats from position to position.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Luana Carolina – 2.05 X Multiplier
Molly McCann is known for her pressure striking, but she will have her work cut out for her closing the distance against Carolina, who will enjoy an eight-inch reach advantage. McCann's wrestling didn't look very sharp against Taila Santos, who was constantly punishing failed takedown attempts with elbows and knees from the Muay Thai clinch. I expect Carolina to have similar success in this range while stinging "Meatball" with counter punches as she attempts to get close enough to land shots.
Elise Reed – 2.25 X Multiplier
I'm struggling to understand why Cory McKenna is such a heavy favorite here, as both women are young in their careers, and tend to fight in a similar style. Reed was easily dispatched by Sijara Eubanks in her UFC debut, but Eubanks is one of the strongest grapplers in the division and McKenna does not possess the same kind of physicality. I expect McKenna to attempt to counter while standing at range while Reed tries to pour on the pressure and overwhelm her opponent. A five-inch reach advantage should work in her favor as the two exchange shots in boxing range.
Bets to Consider
Alexander Volkov Wins via KO/TKO/DQ (+250)
Tom Aspinall has made quick work of most of his UFC opponents, but his fight with Andrei Arlovski exposed some flaws that will need to be addressed as he climbs the ranks. The 28-year-old got noticeably tired after failing to finish Arlovski in Round 1 and he was attempting to dodge strikes while keeping his hands low. Both of these issues leave him vulnerable to Volkov, who throws crisp, straight punches and will enter the Octagon with a two-inch advantage in both height and reach. Aspinall has never seen a third round in his career and I have serious doubts that he will be able to keep his conditioning for 25 minutes. Unless a quick finish materializes, the bright prospect may bump into a hard ceiling here.
Paddy Pimblett Wins via Submission (+200)
Pimblett was content to strike with BJJ black belt Luigi Vendramini in his UFC debut, and while he rallied to get the finish, the power of Vendramini combined with Pimblett's lack of defensive acumen provided a few scary moments for "The Baddy." He will face another heavy-handed puncher in Kazula Vargas, who has logged a takedown defense rate of just 25 percent in three UFC fights. Pimblett is a decent wrestler and an excellent positional grappler, and it's doubtful that he will want to risk hanging his chin out there to give another mid-level opponent a chance at the upset.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Gunnar Nelson OVER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Sergei Pavlovich UNDER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time.
It's no secret that Takashi Sato has an issue with submission grapplers, having suffered both of his UFC losses via tap out. While this is a major area of concern against someone like Nelson, Sato has been tough to take down in the Octagon, as evidenced by the 75 percent defense rate he has logged in four fights. Nelson isn't very efficient when it comes to getting opponents to the ground (55 percent accuracy rate) and has only been stopped by strikes once in his 22-fight career. All of this tells me that these two men are tough enough to hang around past the above mark, though it's hard to rule out a finish occurring at some point.
Pavlovich has made quick work of opponents throughout his MMA career, and while the same can't always be said for Shamil Abdurakhimov, the pace at which Pavlovich fights will likely draw the UFC veteran into a firefight. Chris Daukaus made Abdurakhimov pay for dropping his hands at the end of exchanges, and Pavlovich is similarly powerful with fast hands. Abdurakhimov may choose to wrestle, but he registered zero attempts against Daukaus, which leads me to believe both men will stand in the center and swing.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Dan Hooker UNDER 99.5 Strikes and Arnold Allen UNDER 48.5 Strikes
Hooker has produced some gaudy strike totals in the past, but he's never fought anyone quite like Allen, who will leap in and out of range with single shots while looking for opportunities to land takedowns. The five-inch reach disadvantage means that "Almighty" will likely be more cautious than usual at range as he tries to close the distance. Much of this fight could take place in the clinch against the fence and both men have proven to be good at returning to their feet after being taken down, which doesn't leave much room for landing shots on either side.
