UFC 304 is quietly equipped with a main card (almost) worth its purchase price. The rest of the 14-fight slate is intriguing in its own right, offering closely-lined fights and viable underdogs for us to take a run at. We'll cover each bout across three platforms, including the King of the gatekeepers in the lightweight division, and a strawweight with a recipe for Meatball. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alice Ardelean ($7,300)
I resolved to pick the underdog in this matchup as soon as I finished watching tape on Ardelean and Shauna Bannon. That's not to say both women don't have their strengths, as Bannon is an extremely agile kickboxer, while Ardelene is aggressive with ferocious ground and pound. Despite her kickboxing experience, however, Bannon showed an extreme lack of polish in her UFC debut, charging forward in straight lines that made it far too easy for her opponent to evade and counterattack. Ardelean's strength of schedule leaves much to be desired, but the MMA experience alone should be enough to get the job done.
Bruna Brasil ($7,000)
I've picked against Molly McCann more often than not in her UFC career and will more than happily take the significant discount on her opponent here. "Meatball" has a solid pressure boxing game and can wrestle when her opponent is lacking in that department, but she doesn't do anything well enough to justify the high prices we are generally expected to pay to include her in lineups. She will try and take over any fight she is in, so Molly's wins do tend to produce big scores, but Brasil is solid everywhere and should be able to excel with counterstriking and superior grappling.
Muhammad Mokaev ($8,400)
I was more than a little surprised to see Mokaev so reasonably priced for his bout against Manel Kape. "Starboy" is an undoubtedly talented striker with a bit of a submission game, but he is still susceptible to getting stuck on his back, which was an issue throughout his time in RIZIN. He hasn't been exposed to many determined wrestlers in his time with the UFC, but Mokaev will seriously test his resolve, having averaged almost six takedowns in his last five fights.
Preston Parsons ($8,600)
I'd be hard-pressed to find a less impressive win than Oban Elliott's over Val Woodburn. As the superior grappler and all-around more seasoned fighter, Elliott was expected to walk through the powerful, but utterly flawed Woodburn. Instead, "The Welsh Gangster" was rocked and almost finished by his opponent and struggled to get takedowns or secure position on the ground, even when it was clear that "The Animal" was incredibly tired. Parsons has none of these raw edges and will be able to take advantage of Oban's tendency to brawl and the fact that he backs up in straight lines when pressured.
Michael Parkin ($9,100)
Lukasz Brzeski's quickness should theoretically give him an advantage as a heavyweight, but "The Bull" has been easy to take down by anyone willing to try, as evidenced by his 36 percent takedown defense rate. Parkin is a miserable style matchup, as he will flick out jabs and right hands before attempting to suffocate an opponent in the clinch and drag them to the mat. Parkin has yet to notch a score that would justify this kind of salary, which could make him a nice contrarian option.
Caolan Loughran ($8,700)
Loughran's style will get him a lot of wins near the bottom half of the division, as he is a muscle-bound tank that comes forward, works the body well, and can strike with power. Jake Hadley is a slick scrambler on the ground, but the lack of any effective wrestling game will likely leave him on an Island against a hurricane. We can also see Loughran try his own power wrestling game, as the sheer strength advantage could nullify "White Kong's" game from the bottom position.
Marcin Prachnio ($7,700)
I never expected the man who marched into range with his hands down to get crushed by an over-the-hill Sam Alvey would turn himself into a functional fighter, but it seems Prachnio has reverted to his karate point-fighting roots, as his last fight against Devin Clark featured some good agility, the ability to switch stances and attack from different angles, and even some wrestling for good measure. Modestas Bukauskas generally relies on his speed to find an advantage in these fights, but if he is not the quicker man, it's difficult to see where his edge will come from.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Sam Patterson OVER 19.5 Significant Strikes, Giga Chikadze OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes, and Nathaniel Wood OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes
It's clear from the lack of time he's spent outside the first round in his MMA career that Patterson fights to finish, but I think the fact that a shorter power puncher was able to knock him out in his UFC debut will force "The Future" to stay behind his jab early, as Kiefer Crosbie is a dangerous striker when he collapses the pocket. A finish may materialize on either side, but I expect that we will see a fair amount of range striking first.
Given that neither Chikadze nor Arnold Allen has been knocked out in their respective careers, it seems odd to see such a low significant strike total here. While Allen does have a wrestling attack in his back pocket, "Almighty" hasn't grounded an opponent in any of his last four fights. This being the case, it's hard not to expect a back-and-forth kickboxing match that allows "Ninja" to sail past this total.
Daniel Pineda has positioned himself in his second UFC run as a power puncher who throws one strike at a time, but he has also been incredibly durable in his career, having been knocked out just three times in a whopping 43 fights. Nathaniel Wood is one of the most prolific strikers in the organization (5.91 significant strikes per minute), which should force Pineda to fight at a much faster pace.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Christian Leroy Duncan UNDER 8.5 Minutes Of Fight Time, and Tom Aspinall UNDER 5.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues are both powerful punchers who stand up way too tall in the pocket. Both men can wrestle when they have to, but Rodrigues is far too good on the ground for an opponent to try to and go to the ground, and "Robocop" has shown he would rather brawl than grapple. All of this equates to a quick fight, as two powerful, defensively irresponsible fighters are going to swing at range.
Curtis Blaydes has unfortunately fallen in love with his hands. Like many wrestlers before him, this means he will spend way too much time standing with opponents. To be clear, his boxing is improving; it just isn't at the level it needs to be to stand with devastating power punchers. It certainly won't help that Aspinall is incredibly quick and has a formidable jiujitsu game. Blaydes was having success on the feet before the first fight ended with an Aspinall injury, so I expect him to test the waters again until someone falls.
Bets to Consider
Bobby Green Wins via KO/TKO (+550)
Paddy Pimblett gets hit hard by everyone who stands across from him in the Octagon, and Bobby Green has always been an underrated wrestler and jiujitsu player. Green recently getting knocked out by two particularly hard punchers in Drew Dober and Jalin Turner doesn't particularly bother me here, as "The Baddy" swings his arms like a rusty gate and won't pour on the pressure effectively enough to make "King" uncomfortable.
Leon Edwards Wins via KO/TKO (+330)
I was hoping for a slightly larger price here, as Edwards has just seven KO/TKOs in 22 wins, but the relatively thinner number may speak to a favorable dynamic. Specifically, Belal Muhammad wins fights by recklessly moving forward, and Edwards is one of the sharpest counterfighters in the sport. We saw him nearly close the show on Belal in their first fight with a head kick before an eye poke resulted in a no-contest, and I don't think "Remember The Name" will be able to adjust his style to make this fight go differently.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 304 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
