UFC Baku Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC will touch down in Azerbaijan this week for an intriguing 12-fight slate. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a promising young fighter as a big underdog, and a rematch from the regional scene that may present an opportunity. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Muhammadjon Naimov ($8,800)
Naimov and Bogdan Grad are both powerful wrestlers, but the composure of "Hillman" should win the day here, as he will find counter shots and reactive takedowns as his opponent comes crashing in. "The Unleashed" is so aggressive that he'll put up a big score if he can get his game going, but I have to take the more structured and polished fighter here.
Curtis Blaydes ($9,100)
I hesitated a bit before putting Blaydes in the DraftKings section. The man who once used wrestling as his calling card has not executed a takedown since 2021, opting instead to rely on his boxing. This has produced mixed results, but "Razor" should be able to get the job done at any range against Rizvan Kuniev, who tends to let his opponent press the action, and will be at a tremendous disadvantage in athleticism.
Melissa Mullins ($9,000)
Mullins beat Daria Zhelezniakova in a 2022 regional bout by taking her to the ground and raining down strikes. We have seen how effective Mullins can be when she gets on top, and we have also seen Zheleznyakov get stopped by Ailin Perez after being taken down in Round 1. It must be noted, however, that Mullins' game is incredibly shallow if she cannot get the fight to the mat, and I don't expect her to be as insistent as Perez if her initial shots are stopped. This will be the third camp in a row that Zhelezniakova is training for a wrestler, which gives me some hope that she can keep this fight standing. While I still need to pick Mullins, prospective bettors would be wise to check out the (+650) line on an "Iron Lady" knockout, as Mullins has been hit hard in space before, and Zhelezniakova carries power for this division.
Irina Alekseeva ($8,900)
Alekseeva isn't a fighter I would typically recommend with confidence, but she is strong, aggressive, and knows what she wants to do in the cage. While Klaudia Sygula may be a functional kickboxer, she is far too willing to let an opponent dictate terms. I expect Alekseeva to walk through some damage before bringing this fight to the ground and finding a finish.
Jun Yong Park ($8,700)
Ismail Naurdiev has struggled with strong grapplers throughout his UFC run, and I don't expect that to change here. While "The Austrian Wonderboy" can look good at range, Park has made a living with a smothering boxing game that he uses to find takedowns. The speed advantage may be on the side of Nauirdiev, but Park should be able to close him down and get the kind of fight he wants.
Azat Maksum ($6,900)
I hedged on a dog play earlier, but I am going full bore with Maksum, who will have a fairly significant speed advantage over Tagir Ulanbekov. While the Dagestani is strong on the ground, Maksum is far from lost, having won six of his 15 fights by submission. He should also be able to take advantage of Tagir's lack of head movement, allowing him to land power shots. Grappling dominance has resulted in big DraftKings scores for Ulanbekov, but this line seems far too wide for a prospect as talented as Maksum.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Ignacio Bahamondes UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes, and Tofiq Musayev OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Bahomondes can be a volume machine in the right matchup, but Rafael Fiziev will likely meet him in the center of the cage, throwing powerful, fast shots. Both competitors fight so aggressively that I would be surprised if this fight makes it far enough for Bahamondes to approach 80 significant strikes, as six of their last eight combined fights have ended inside the distance.
I expect Myktybek Orolbai to struggle to get his wrestling game going for the second fight in a row, as Tofiq Musayev is another agile opponent who will be able to keep range and exit the pocket after throwing strikes. Mateusz Rebecki showed us what can happen if a wrestler is too slow in the Octagon, and while it may not cost Orolbai the fight, his lack of closing speed should result in plenty of time at striking range.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Takedowns
Hamdy Abdelwahab UNDER 1.5 Takedowns and Oban Elliott UNDER 2.5 Takedowns
All indications are that Mohammed Usman vs Abdelwahab will turn into a slow striking match between two heavyweight wrestlers who don't always show urgency to take the fight to the ground. Neither of these men has been quick to seize on momentum inside the cage, and while that may make for a boring watch, it does mean that most of the fight will take place at range. Usman has notched a moderate 60 percent takedown defense rate in his UFC career, but he will be the most experienced wrestler Abdelwahab has faced by a wide margin.
Elliott has shown us he will stay on the back foot and intercept aggressive opponents. This should be the dynamic in his fight against newcomer Seok Hyun Ko, who will press the action and look to land big shots. "The Welsh Gangster" hasn't landed more than one takedown in a fight since grounding regional stand-in Val Woodburn three times in his debut, making it difficult for me to view this line any other way.
UFC Bets to Consider
Nazim Sadykhov Wins via KO/TKO (+128)
Power and aggression are key aspects of Sadykhov's game, but his defense sets him apart, as his ability to cover and roll with shots ensures that he is rarely hit cleanly. The same can't be said for Nikolas Motta, who throws hard in the pocket without moving his head. "Iron" has power in his own right, but Sadykhov has defeated far more complex fighters in his short run with the organization. Unless he gets sparked out, I think "Black Wolf" will pick up his third KO/TKO victory in five UFC fights.
Khalil Rountree Wins via KO/TKO (+140)
The defensive lapses Jamahal Hill showed in the Jiri Prochazka fight will likely get him knocked out again. Not only does "Sweet Dreams" keep his head on the center line, he also fails to bring his guard back to his face after throwing, which will likely be a fatal flaw against someone as fast and powerful as Rountree. Hill is a slick, creative striker, but we've seen how tough Rountree can be, and I don't believe five months is enough time to correct bad habits.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Baku this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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