This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 70 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Jose Johnson (15-7-0) v. Garrett Armfield (8-3-0)
Jose Johnson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
Garrett Armfield - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Johnson will have a significant height advantage and likely have a power edge. Armfield has a similar reach but likely needs to move in and out of the pocket or clinch up against the cage in search of a takedown. Johnson tends to stand flat and load up, which could lead to single or doubles for Armfield, and once this hits the mat, Armfield should take over. Without a finish, I do not see a high score.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Armfield
Hailey Cowan (7-2-0) v. Ailin Perez (7-2-0)
Hailey Cowan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Ailin Perez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Cowan will make her debut fresh off a split-decision win on the Contender Series. She is well-rounded but has yet to truly be tested. Perez has tasted a UFC fight, although she lost by sub in the second round. Cowan's best path is to hunt for a submission. Perez should have the better striking and will push the pace for most of the fight. She is also well-versed on the mat and could be a sneaky dog play for DFS and betting.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Perez
Nurullo Aliev (8-0-0) v. Rafael Alves (20-11-0)
Rafael Alves - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
Nurullo Aliev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Alves will have a considerable edge on the feet, while Aliev will have a significant edge on the mat. Alves has immense power and is live to record a knockout. Aliev does tend to eat clean shots but has yet to be knocked out. He also has suffocating wrestling to the point where once the fight hits the mat, there is nearly no getting back up. I can visualize a high score coming out of this fight for either winner.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Aliev
Joe Solecki (12-3-0) v. Carl Deaton (17-5-0)
Joe Solecki - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Carl Deaton - Height: 5'6" – Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Deaton is tough, but I do not think there is anything special to his game. He will have the edge in striking but may run into issues keeping it on the feet. Solecki has faced better competition and should control where this fight takes place. Once he gets it to the mat, he should suffocate Deaton with pressure. However, he would need multiple takedowns or an early finish to hit value.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Solecki
Ode Osbourne (11-5-0) v. Charles Johnson (13-3-0)
Ode Osbourne - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a close striking. Both guys have wrestling in their back pockets, but we see more of their striking in the Octagon. Osbourne will have a reach advantage, while Johnson will have an edge in speed and volume. This fight could be a boring decision or a fast-paced striking affair leading to a knockout. I slightly lean toward Johnson due to his overall skill set, but Osbourne is live for the upset.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Johnson
Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0) v. Victor Martinez (13-4-0)
Jordan Leavitt - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Victor Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Leavitt will continually push for takedowns while looking for a submission. Martinez will look to keep this on the feet, where he will dominate with volume and power. I think one of them gets finished, making it a must-have in DFS contests. Leavitt has faced the better competition and should be able to get this to the mat.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Leavitt
Gabriella Fernandes (8-1-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-2-0)
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Gabriella Fernandes - Height: 5'6" - Reach: N/A" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Jasudavicius will need to get this fight down to have a chance in this fight. Her striking is subpar, and she relies on her grappling to win fights. Fernandes is making her debut after a successful run in LFA. She has a well-rounded game and should dominate this fight on the feet while avoiding any submission attempts from Jasudavicius on the mat. Fernandes is a solid play for cash games and betting.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Fernandes
Erick Gonzalez (14-7-0) v. Trevor Peek (7-0-0)
Erick Gonzalez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
Trevor Peek - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Though Peek is a significant favorite, Gonzalez makes for a solid GPP dart due to his power. If he cannot land something flush early, I expect Peek will smother him with forward pressure and heavy volume until he knocks him out. This is a great fight to target on both sides in big GPP fields.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Peek
Mike Malott (8-1-1) v. Yohan Lainesse (9-1-0)
Mike Malott - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Yohan Lainesse - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Lainesse must keep this fight at range and avoid hitting the mat if he wants to hang in this one. Malott will apply a constant forward pace, likely clinching Lainesse against the cage and then working him down to the mat where he can either submit him or rain down heavy ground-and-pound. Malott is decently-priced and should smash value in a win.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Malott
Tatiana Suarez (8-0-0) v. Montana De La Rosa (12-7-1)
Tatiana Suarez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Montana De La Rosa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Suarez is back after a long layoff, and the UFC community could not be more excited. There is a concern for ring rust, but if we see the same fighter from before, De La Rosa will be in for a rough night. I expect Suarez to dominate everywhere this fight goes. De La Rosa has a slight chance if she can find a choke, but I would not count on it. Suarez is the most expensive fighter on the slate and could still pay off with a huge first-round finish.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Suarez
Augusto Sakai (15-5-1) v. Don'Tale Mayes (9-4-0)
Augusto Sakai - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 7" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: At this point, it is impossible to trust Sakai after suffering massive knockouts in four consecutive fights. Though not as high-level as the previous four fighters, Mayes has considerable power, will have a reach and height advantage, and will likely be the fighter to initiate a takedown if there is one. Mayes is the dog with a great chance to record a knockout to smash value.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Mayes
Andre Muniz (23-4-0) v. Brendan Allen (20-5-0)
Andre Muniz - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: I am torn on this fight. Muniz is a wizard on the mat and will likely be the fighter winning grappling exchanges. However, Allen not only has high-level grappling but will also have an edge on the feet with volume and power. This is one of the card's tightest fights and could go either way.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Allen
Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) v. Ryan Spann (21-7-0)
Nikita Krylov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 29 wins
Ryan Spann - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Another tight fight between well-rounded finishers. Both guys have similar skill sets. Krylov fights slightly more defensively and has better cardio. Spann has more power and a nasty guillotine. He is also more likely to record a finish in the first round. Pick your side and run with them. This fight will not go five rounds; whoever wins should smash value.
UFC Vegas 70 Pick: Spann
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 70 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
