This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 70 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k Throwdown with$100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) v. Ryan Spann (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($8,700), Spann ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)
Odds to Finish: -650
Set to turn 31 years of age a couple weeks after this event takes place, Krylov will be looking for his third straight victory. He bounced back from a brief two-fight losing streak to pick up a knockout of Alexander Gustafsson in addition to a unanimous decision win over Volkan Oezdemir. Krylov has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his two stints with the UFC and has no history of defeating high-end competition, but he's clearly one of the better options in a division that drops off significantly after the first half-dozen or so names.
Spann finds himself in a similar predicament. His 80-second knockout victory over Dominick Reyes at Madison Square Garden last November looks great on paper, but Spann missed weight for that bout and had to forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Reyes simply in order for the fight to proceed. Spann has won seven of his first nine UFC bouts, so the results have been positive, but his past durability issues threaten to hamper his long-term upside.
Unlike most larger fighters, Spann does his best work on the mat. He has a dozen career submission victories compared to just a half-dozen knockouts. He lands and absorbs exactly 3.42 significant strikes per minute, both fairly low numbers for a light heavyweight.
Krylov unquestionably has more power than Spann. He's giving up two inches in both the height and reach department, but I would absolutely take Nikita in a back-and-forth fire fight. Krylov's biggest issue is that he has been prone to the submission in the past. Three of his past five defeats have come via tapout.
There's a clear path to victory for Spann if he is able to get Krylov in a compromising position on the mat, but it's important to keep in mind that Nikita has 15 career submission victories of his own. He's far from a slouch on the mat.
Ultimately, Spann would appear to provide some minor DK value given his suppressed price tag, but I'll roll with Krylov's all-around game and the fact he fights with more physicality than Spann.
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Krylov
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Andre Muniz (23-4-0) v. Brendan Allen (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Muniz ($9,100), Allen ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Muniz (-205), Allen (+175)
Odds to Finish: -250
In my opinion, this is the best fight on the entire card by a wide margin.
Muniz has quickly made a name for himself as one of the most underrated fighters around at 185 pounds. He's a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, including wins over Uriah Hall, Jacare Souza and Eryk Anders. He won the Souza and Anders fights via submission, while the Hall bout, his most recent, was among the more lopsided three-round decisions you will ever see. Everything we have seen to date suggests Muniz's breakout is entirely legitimate.
Allen will be no easy mark, however. A product of Dana White's Contender Series just like Muniz, Brendan is 8-2 in his first ten UFC bouts. He has a win over Kevin Holland on his resume, and his defeats came against Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland, both fringe top-ten fighters at 185 pounds. Allen is a big, physical guy with no significant holes in his game. I've been extremely impressed with him thus far.
Allen's main challenge in this fight will be to simply remain upright. Muniz is averaging 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has landed at least a pair of attempts in four of five UFC bouts. He racked up 10:12 worth of control time in the Hall fight. Combine all that with the fact Allen has defended the takedown at just a 50 percent clip to date, and Brendan is at real risk of spending long stretches of this fight pinned to the mat.
Because he spends so much time grappling, Muniz can be beaten on the feet in prolonged striking exchanges. I expect Allen to fire off plenty of volume in hopes of limiting Andre's takedown attempts. It will be easier said than done, however, as Muniz will enter with a two-inch reach edge despite being an inch shorter than Allen.
Allen should have a shot in this fight if he can remain upright, but the poor takedown defense is a real concern, and Muniz is really, really good. My guess is it's a bit too much for the 27-year-old Sanford MMA product to overcome.
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Muniz
Women's Flyweight
Tatiana Suarez (9-0-0) v. Montana De La Rosa (12-7-1)
DK Salaries: Suarez ($9,600), De La Rosa ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Suarez (-750), De La Rosa (+550)
Odds to Finish: +100
The biggest story of this fight, and arguably the largest on the entire card, is the return of Suarez. The former winner of Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter, Tatiana has been sidelined for more than three and a half years due to neck and knee injuries. She's a perfect 4-0 with the UFC, including wins over Nina Nunes, Carla Esparza and Alexa Grasso. It remains to be seen how Suarez, now 32 years old, will look following the layoff, but the fighter we saw prior appeared to have a legitimate chance to win a UFC Championship at some point.
This has the feel of De La Rosa being thrown to the wolves, quite honestly. The 28-year-old is 2-3-1 in her past half-dozen bouts dating back to June 2019. Her best UFC victory came over Ariane Lipski. De La Rosa has fought some fair competition in her career (Mackenzie Dern, Maycee Barber, Andrea Lee), always coming up short.
An Olympic-level wrestler, Suarez is averaging 6.47 takedowns per 15 minutes. She's connecting on an insane 62 percent of her tries. Tatiana is one of the strongest female fighters in the sport today, and I highly doubt the layoff will have impacted that in the least. Toss in De La Rosa's middling 63 percent takedown defense, and there's a real chance this gets out of hand quickly.
Eight of Montana's 12 career victories have come via submission, so she's most comfortable on the mat, but having a woman with Suarez's pedigree and upper-body strength controlling you on the mat would seem to make it close to impossible to pull off a miracle submission from the bottom.
With all due respect to De La Rosa, this has the feel of a weaker fighter being fed to a potential future star in hopes of getting her back on track. Don't overthink this one, even at Suarez's ridiculously-high price tag.
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Suarez
Heavyweight
Augusto Sakai (15-5-1) v. Don'Tale Mayes (9-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Sakai ($8,300), Mayes ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Sakai (-135), Mayes (+115)
Odds to Finish: -200
The loser of four straight fights all via knockout, I am beyond flabbergasted the UFC is running Sakai back out there. A long-time member of the Bellator roster, Augusto began his company run with four straight wins, including a pair over pretty decent competition in Marcin Tybura (knockout) and Blagoy Ivanov (split decision) before it all fell apart. I'm confident in saying there won't be a sixth opportunity if this one doesn't go well.
No fighter in the company is on shakier ground than Sakai, so from that perspective, Mayes would appear to have little to lose here, other than, you know, losing to a guy that has been knocked out in four straight. A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Don'Tale began his official UFC run with back-to-back submission losses to Ciryl Gane (understandable) and Rodrigo Nascimento. He rebounded to decision Roque Martinez and knock out Josh Parisian, only to drop a split decision to Hamdy Abdelwahab last July. Fortunately for Mayes, Hamdy failed his post-fight drug test and the loss was changed to a no-contest.
Mayes is a truly massive man. At 6-foot-6, he's three inches taller than Sakai and will enter with a four-inch reach edge. He moves better than you would think for a guy that big, and unlike many other heavyweights, he seems to have some sort of a game plan when he enters the Octagon, meaning he doesn't just fire off power shots and totally ignore defending himself.
Sakai also has power, with 11 career wins via knockout, but he's durability is so poor that it's impossible to believe he will able to hang around long enough to get to it. That's not to say Mayes has top-five potential or anything like that, but you simply cannot trust Sakai of late given what we have seen.
Maybe Mayes is a better fighter than Sakai, maybe not, but in the end it doesn't really matter. Getting any opponent of Augusto right now at plus money and a depressed salary seems like a monumental victory. It may not pay off in the end, but fading Sakai is clearly the correct move given everything we have seen from him the past two and a half years.
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Mayes
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Mike Malott (8-1-1) v. Yohan Lainesse (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Malott ($9,200), Lainesse ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Malott (-215), Lainesse (+185)
Odds to Finish: -245
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Malott
Lightweight
Erick Gonzalez (14-7-0) v. Trevor Peek (7-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gonzalez ($7,300), Peek ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Gonzalez (+160), Peek (-190)
Odds to Finish: -450
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Peek
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius (7-2-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Jasudavicius ($7,800), Fernandes ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Jasudavicius (+105), Fernandes (-125)
Odds to Finish: +175
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Jasudavicius
Lightweight
Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0) v. Victor Martinez (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Leavitt ($8,000), Martinez ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Leavitt (-105), Martinez (-115)
Odds to Finish: -185
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Martinez
Catchweight (130 pounds)
Ode Osbourne (11-5-0, 1NC) v. Charles Johnson (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Osbourne ($7,200), Johnson ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Osbourne (+145), Johnson (-170)
Odds to Finish: -145
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Johnson
Lightweight
Rafael Alves (20-11-0) v. Nurullo Aliev (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Alves ($7,400), Aliev ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Alves (+155), Aliev (-180)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Aliev
Women's Bantamweight
Hailey Cowan (7-2-0) v. Ailin Perez (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Cowan ($8,600), Perez ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Cowan (-130), Perez (+110)
Odds to Finish: +125
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Cowan
Bantamweight
Jose Johnson (15-7-0) v. Garrett Armfield (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($7,700), Armfield ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+125), Armfield (-145)
Odds to Finish: -225
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Johnson
Lightweight
Joe Solecki (12-3-0) v. Carl Deaton (17-5-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Solecki ($9,400), Deaton ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Solecki (-520), Deaton (+410)
Odds to Finish: -185
UFC VEGAS 70 PICK: Solecki
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 70 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
