Mound Musings: The “Kids on Parade” Early Edition Watch List

As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. And, not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit to identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues. That certainly still applies when the current baseball season is on hold.

This is typically my last column of the season, and hopefully it will be again this year. The problem is, you might be reading it as you prepare to sit down to a big Thanksgiving dinner with turkey, dressing, and sweet potatoes in 2020. With a resumption date still uncertain, I felt it might be interesting to do an "Early Edition" to update shifts in the food chain (it's a very fluid list with pitchers constantly moving higher and lower).

Over the past few years there has been an unprecedented rush of young pitchers to the major leagues. And, with the push for more offense, lack of minor league seasoning can be very problematic. Now, with the minor league season likely gone for this year, teams will need to weigh the anticipated impact on their best pitching prospects of coming to the majors a bit too soon against practically losing a year of developmental time. Neither scenario is ideal to say the least. I'll remind you that the pitchers below are primarily guys who likely will arrive (if they haven't already) in the next year, or two at the most, regardless of their status this season. Let's get started:

Put These Guys at the Top of Your Watch List …

MacKenzie Gore (SD) – Gore has been pretty high on this list since he was drafted, but he is now perched atop the list. Last year he tossed 101 innings between High-A and Double-A, compiling a 1.69 ERA with an even more impressive 0.83 WHIP (plus 135 strikeouts). Southpaws often take a bit longer to get everything together, but he has already displayed excellent command of his entire repertoire despite just turning 21 in February. With command of a four-pitch mix, there simply aren't any holes in his game. I anticipated him starting 2020 back at Double-A, with Triple-A in his sights, and then perhaps a look in San Diego late in the season. The best laid plans have obviously gone astray, but the Padres can't afford to have him collecting dust. He'll pitch somewhere when baseball returns, and he could have enough talent to step it up without the benefit of a bit more seasoning, but I'll be even more enthusiastic heading into 2021.

Nate Pearson (TOR) – Pearson's arm is what general Managers dream of, and the Jays have him on the fast track. He began 2019 at High-A Dunedin (talk about a mismatch, 10 hits and three walks with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings), stopped off for a bit at Double-A, before finishing the season at Triple-A Buffalo. All told, he worked 101 innings, and most importantly, built up arm strength and stamina. When he's on the mound, it's all about power. He fairly easily sits mid-upper 90s, but he can hit triple digits when he wants to, and, notably, he pitches on an extremely exaggerated downward plane which is almost unfair. He now has a decent slider, and his changeup is getting there, which means he has the potential to be a dominating starter, and if not, he profiles as a devastating closer right now. I would be very surprised if he isn't pitching for Toronto later this year, but I'm guessing it will be out of the bullpen until 2021.

Forrest Whitley (HOU) – Many analysts rank Whitley the top pitching prospect in the game today. It's hard to argue with them. He has dynamic stuff (five quality pitches including an outstanding fastball and a change that is a true difference-maker, and he is built to be a workhorse (6'7" and 240 lbs.). I tend to compare him to Lucas Giolito (although Whitley has even better raw stuff). He was sharp over 91 innings in 2017, but was handed a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance in 2018. He then missed time, first with an oblique injury and then early in 2019 with a shoulder strain. The shoulder issues affected his command, and ultimately led to a rework of his mechanics (like Giolito) to smooth out his pitching motion and relieve stress on his arm. All these factors slowed his progress, but hopefully he can put it all back together – the signs were very positive late last year – and he'll be a fixture in the Astros' rotation for years. He is clearly a legitimate ace in the making.

Jesus Luzardo (OAK) – Right now, I consider Luzardo's ceiling to be a small tick behind the three listed above, but he has the advantage of already giving us a sneak preview of things to come. He pitched out of the A's bullpen last September. The early returns were very promising, with Luzardo allowing just five hits and three walks to go with 16 strikeouts over 12 innings. Granted that's a small sample, but he surely didn't look out of place. He missed a couple months with a lat strain earlier last season, but he finished up strong at Triple-A Las Vegas, before pitching long relief for the A's. He is much more polished than you might expect given his age (22) and pro experience (three seasons) so a spot in the team's rotation this year was certainly realistic. And, that spot should still be reserved for him. His fastball, and, more importantly, his changeup are major league ready right now, and I think his curveball will be serviceable. However, if that third pitch turns out to be very good (or better), his stock could rise.

Matt Manning (DET) – The Tigers have long been known as an organization that frequently rushed their top pitching prospects to the majors as quickly as possible – perhaps too quickly. It appears they may be taking a more conservative approach with their current crop, including Manning. He certainly has the tools, including a lively fastball, and a curve that can be devastating at times. It's the "at times" part that still needs to improve. Last year I saw dramatic progress, especially later in the season when he posted a 36:4 K/BB rate over his last six starts. All told, he enjoyed a very successful age 21 season at Double-A Erie going 11-5 with a tidy 2.56 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while recording 148 strikeouts in 134 innings. His steadily improving command is the key. I believe he needs a season at Triple-A to continue his development, and while that may not be possible in 2020, I doubt the team will throw him into the deep water this year, preferring to ease him into the rotation when they think he's actually ready.

Michael Kopech (CWS) – Kopech and Hunter Greene (discussed below) are the two pitchers most capable of challenging Pearson with regard to having the biggest cannon in the parade. The White Sox got a brief taste of his potential back in 2018, but Tommy John surgery ended that season and cost him all of 2019. There is no question, when healthy, he has the tools. His four-seamer is electric, and his slider and change-up can also be plus pitches when he throws them for strikes. Therein lies my concern. He is inconsistent with his whole repertoire. He needs to show me a repeatable release point to take the next step, and having missed last year, and command often being the last thing to return, this may not be his year. With some of the most exciting young position players in the game, the future looks very bright on the south side of Chicago, and Kopech will eventually be counted on to contribute on the mound. They are probably another year away, and I don't think they want to push him too hard in 2020.

 A.J. Puk (OAK) – Next, we'll drop down to the next tier of pitching prospects. Puk is big (6'7"), and he's left-handed which almost automatically makes patience a keyword in his evaluation. Like Luzardo, he was up with A's for a September look last year, and while he also performed reasonably well, he doesn't appear to be as close to the finished product. The 16 baserunners, including five walks, in just over 11 innings suggest his command is not quite where it will need to be. It should be noted, in April, 2018 he suffered ligament damage in his left elbow, and the resulting Tommy John surgery cost him all of that season and most of last year, so his spotty command was somewhat less surprising. Overall, he has a lively upper 90's fastball, a wipeout slider, and his other pitches are pretty good too. Bottom line is, his ultimate contributions are directly tied to him locking in a repeatable release point.

Casey Mize (DET) – The consensus among many analysts is that Manning and Mize are 1a and 1b in the Tigers' future rotation projections, but I still find myself vacillating regarding Mize's ultimate ceiling. Don't get me wrong. He's firmly on my watch list, and he deserves to be there. I would just prefer a little different pitch mix. Mize relies heavily on his splitter – not my favorite pitch – and he throws a mid-90's fastball, a cutter, a slider, and he's even added a slurvy curve, but fewer splitters and an increase in his other offerings would suit me better. But hey, that's me. He was the number one pick in the 2018 draft, he enjoyed a successful first season as a pro, and he even authored a no-hitter back in April at Double-A Erie. Maybe I'm setting the bar unfairly high, but I do believe a bit more consistency with his soft stuff could propel him into the next tier of prospects. Like Manning, I don't expect meaningful innings in Detroit in 2020.

Jordan Balazovic (MIN) – Balazovic makes his debut in the Parade based somewhat on the extra credit I award for taking a significant step forward from one season to the next. I saw him in 2018 with Low-A Cedar Rapids when my notes indicated he had a "very nice fastball with late movement but not much else" and then again in 2019 when he showed me a respectable change-up and what I thought was a hard curveball (I understand he considers it a soft slider). Hitters were really off balance. He's not ready for the show, and he will need another step forward, probably in 2021, when he can hopefully get some Double-A innings under his belt to solidify his spot here. He's built to be a workhorse, and if he continues to develop he has the right tools.

Hunter Greene (CIN) – Let's set the Way Back Machine for early 2018. Greene, the second overall pick in the 2017 draft, is one of the new breed of professional baseball players who can both pitch and hit. However, the Reds opted to see where he could go with his flamethrower right arm, and were having him pitch exclusively. Unfortunately, it all ended up on hold. Greene was shut down in July, 2018 when he came up with a UCL injury. It was initially deemed minor, so it wouldn't require Tommy John surgery, but a setback changed the plan. He had the surgery in April, 2019, and is just now getting back on track. He's still more of a thrower than a pitcher, but when you easily throw 102-104 mph, there is good reason to monitor his progress. He's likely at least a couple years away, but with his potential upside, he could be worth the wait.

Eric Pardinho (TOR) –Two years ago, Pardinho was virtually unknown. I drafted him in a couple dynasty leagues based on a few short clips I had seen of him pitching for the Brazilian National team in the World Baseball Classic qualifier – at age 15. He briefly garnered some attention in dynasty circles, but elbow issues led to Tommy John surgery that will cost him the 2020 season, and he has fallen off many radar screens. He's 19 now, and he's listed at 5'10" and 160 lbs. (both might be generous) so he's not your prototypical starting pitcher, but he has "wow" stuff given his age and experience level. Pardinho fairly easily gets his fastball into the mid-90s with movement, and I was especially impressed with his curveball. Plus, he has exceptional mound presence for what amounts to a high schooler. He pitched well in Rookie ball in 2018, and despite missing the first half of 2019 with the initial elbow issues, he slotted right in at Low-A Lansing. As he matures, if he can stay healthy, he could open eyes again.

There are more names that could be added to this list, and I apologize if your guy isn't here – but I want to keep the Parade as pristine and pure as possible. Here are a just few other honorable mentions who received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the current Parade: Ian Anderson (ATL), Sixto Sanchez (MIA), Simeon Woods Richardson (TOR), Mitch Keller (PIT), Josiah Gray (NYY), Spencer Howard (PHA), Brendan McKay (TB), Kyle Wright (ATL), Alek Manoah (TOR), Brady Singer (KC), Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), Clarke Schmidt (NYY), and Luis Patino (SD).

That's a wrap. Always remember, the list is never static. Tomorrow, the Parade could, and probably will, change, especially if we have some real games. Keep the faith!