Beating the Book: NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

Coming off of a strong Week 2, we got punched in the mouth in a few spots this week – most notably, ending up on the wrong side of what may go down as the worst beat of the NFL season.

We also took a tough beat on the Buccaneers, who blew a 13-point lead with less than four minutes to play, only to rally back and -- once again -- win at the buzzer. In addition, we failed to foresee a complete no-show by the Falcons, as well as a major letdown game for the Cowboys in Chicago. More on those later.

On a positive note, we did keep our Best Bets streak rolling, hitting on the Colts to move to 3-0 on the year.

As always, we press forward here at Beating the Book, which brings us to an interesting NFL Week 4 slate. Not only do we get an early-morning kickoff in Dublin, but we're also treated to another Monday Night Football double-dip. We kick things off with Seahawks-Cardinals on Thursday Night Football, with the Cards currently sitting as slight road dogs.

Sunday brings us by far our biggest line of the year, as the Bills are giving 16.5 to the 0-3 Saints. Detroit is also a hefty favorite over the Browns, while the Texans, Packers, Chargers and Broncos are each favored by at least 6.0 points. This week, the late window packs the biggest punch, as we'll see Colts-Rams and Ravens-Chiefs showdowns alongside the Jags-Niners and Bears-Raiders undercards.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 4 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 3:

Browns +8.5 vs. Packers: While I never expected Cleveland to actually win the game straight-up, we were all over this being a close, low-scoring game.

Colts -3.5 at Titans: The Titans are the Titans, but the Colts put together a third straight convincing, statement win to open the season.

Worst calls of Week 3:

Falcons -5.5 at Panthers: It's one thing to lose to the Carolina Panthers. It's another to lose 30-0 and never even threaten to score a touchdown.

Cowboys +1.5 at Bears: We were all over the Cowboys this week, and while an early fumble – coupled with CeeDee Lamb's injury – changed the game, Dallas' defense was an abomination.

Last week: 6-9-1-0 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet won (IND -3.5)

On the season: 25-21-2 ATS; 33-15 SU; 3-0 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -1.5

Total: 43.5

We kick off Week 4 with a battle between a pair of 2-1 teams in the NFC West. After picking up less-than-convincing wins over the Saints and Panthers in Weeks 1 and 2, the Cardinals lost an ugly game to San Francisco in Week 3 on an Eddy Pineiro walk-off field goal.

While the Cardinals' defense has been solid so far, Arizona's offense has been mostly stuck in the mud. Against the Niners, Arizona averaged just 4.1 yards per play and was out-gained for the third consecutive week. Another slow start for Marvin Harrison Jr., who had some key drops in Week 3, is partially to blame. The Cards will also be without James Conner for the rest of the season.

Seattle, meanwhile, has shaken off a loss to the Niners in Week 1 and ripped off two impressive wins over Pittsburgh and New Orleans. The Saints are the Saints, after all, but Seattle decimated a team that gave both Arizona and San Francisco difficult games to begin the year. The Seahawks were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter and never looked back.

Given the sentiment around both teams, I expect Seattle to be a popular play this week. This is more of a stay-away for me on short rest, but we'll side with the Seahawks to pull out a low-scoring win on the road behind what's shaping up to be among the better defenses in football.

The pick: Seahawks 20 – Cardinals 17

Sunday NFL Dublin Game

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Total: 41.5

Taking a page out of the Jaguars' playbook, the Vikings head overseas for the first of two consecutive international games. Carson Wentz's first start in place of the injured J.J. McCarthy couldn't have gone much smoother, as the Vikings' defense forced four first-half turnovers, including a pick-six and a fumble-six – both by Isaiah Rodgers.

Wentz ultimately wasn't asked to do much, given the game script, but he finished 14-of-20 fro 173 yards and a pair of scores to Josh Oliver and T.J. Hockenson. Filling in for Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason carried 16 times for 116 yards and two scores. With Jones landing on IR, Mason could have a real chance to assert himself as the Vikings' RB1 for the rest of the season.

This week, Mason gets what should be another strong matchup against a Steelers defense that's given up nearly 140 rushing yards per game to the Jets, Seahawks and Patriots. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in opponent success rate and 21st in EPA per play on defense. Minnesota also gets Jordan Addison back from his three-game suspension.

Still, the Steelers have found a way to claw their way to 2-1, thanks in large part to the Pats turning it over five times last week, including a fumble at the goal line and an interception in the endzone. Pittsburgh won that game 21-14, despite being outgained 369-203 and averaging just 4.1 yards per play. 

Both of these teams are difficult evaluations right now, but much like the TNF game, we'll put our faith in the Minnesota defense and – gulp – back Carson Wentz in Dublin.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Steelers 17

Sunday Early Slate

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Commanders -2.5

Total: 44.5

Playing without Jayden Daniels in Week 3, the Commanders were able to cruise to a comfortable victory over the Raiders behind a solid showing from Marcus Mariota, who finished the week as the QB6 in fantasy.

Mariota shook off an early turnover to finish 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a score to go with 40 rushing yards and another TD. As of publication, the expectation is that Jayden Daniels will have a chance to return this week, but that decision may not come until closer to Sunday. Meanwhile, Terry McLaurin is trending toward sitting out and could miss multiple games.

On the other side, the Falcons enter this game coming off of perhaps the single worst loss of the season. Framing Sunday's loss to the Panthers as a "letdown game" would be far too generous. Atlanta closed as a 5.5-point favorite and did not score a single point – or even reach the red zone – in an embarrassing, 30-0 defeat that has me questioning my Michael Penix optimism.

With the Bucs sitting at 3-0, and the Bills and Niners coming up in the next two weeks, this feels like a borderline must-win game for Atlanta. Almost by default, this has to be a bounceback spot for the Falcons' offense at home, but if Daniels is out there, I like Washington to win a close game SU.

The pick: Commanders 24 – Falcons 23

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -16.5

Total: 48.5

This number is up to 16.5 across the board – easily our most-lopsided spread of the season, to date, and perhaps the biggest number we'll see all year. Buffalo failed to deliver us a cover against Miami on Thursday night, but it was still a solid win against a Dolphins team that was in the ultimate "backed into a corner" spot. In retrospect, we should've put more weight into the desperation factor.

The Saints enter Week 4 fresh off of that drubbing in Seattle. Out of 12 total drives, the Saints had six three-and-out punts, one of which was blocked to set up a short touchdown that gave Seattle a 21-0 lead before the second quarter began.

There's a reason the Saints are massive underdogs here. There's still a lingering degree of friskiness with this team, and they've committed only two turnovers thus far, but facing an elite team on the road will be an uphill battle. This number is obviously in uncomfortable territory, but this should be a smash spot for the Bills, who are still yet to put together a truly dominant, complete game.

The pick: Bills 34 – Saints 14

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -9.5

Total: 45.5

Detroit's victory over the Ravens in Baltimore on Monday night may be the early frontrunner for the most-impressive win of the season. After an obvious get-right spot against Chicago in Week 2, the Lions rolled to 426 total yards (6.5 YPP) – including 224 on the ground – while holding Baltimore to 318 yards and sacking Lamar Jackson seven times (tied for the most in his career).

That Week 1 letdown against Green Bay already feels like a distant memory, and the Lions will now have a strong chance to move to 3-1 as heavy home favorites. With that said, the Browns' defense asserted itself once again last week in a shocking upset of the Packers. For the third straight week, the Browns shut down their opponents' running game and were able to get after Jordan Love at will behind a porous offensive line.

Given how Detroit has looked the last two weeks, it's tough to foresee another upset of that ilk, but the Browns should be able to hang around. We'll ride with Detroit to win and cover, but this one won't be comfortable on a short week.

The pick: Lions 27 – Browns 17

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -5.5

Total: 43.5

Difficult game to evaluate for a number of reasons. For one, Carolina is riding high after a 30-0 decimation of the Falcons last week, but that came after two games in which they struggled to compete with Jacksonville and Arizona (until the final minutes). Certainly, the Panthers deserve to be upgraded after Week 3, but we don't want to put too much stock into one game. 

That Pats, meanwhile, shot themselves in the foot over and over and over and over and over again in their Week 3 loss to Pittsburgh. New England consistently moved the ball on the Steelers' defense and was once fared well against the run, but five turnovers – including four lost fumbles – ultimately doomed the Pats to an ugly 21-14 loss. Had it not been for even two of those turnovers, the Pats probably win fairly comfortably.

Playing at home against what's still a poor defense, I like the Pats to win, but we'll side with Carolina to cover the 5.5.

The pick: Patriots 27 – Panthers 23

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants

Spread: Chargers -6.0

Total: 44.0

The moment the Giants drafted Jaxson Dart, the question became: how many games until he takes over? Five? Ten? Could Russell Wilson somehow last the entire season? Well, three games into the year, we have our answer.

Frankly, it's tough to argue with the decision from Brian Daboll, who had to personally witness Russell Wilson's horrific performance on Sunday night against the Chiefs. Wilson had some moments in Week 2 against Dallas, but that says more about the state of the Cowboys' defense than it does Wilson. Through three games, the Giants have converted just two of 10 red zone possessions into touchdowns, while Wilson ranks 29th in the NFL in EPA and 31st in success rate. With the Giants sitting at 0-3, it was simply a decision that had to be made. 

There's an argument, however, that next week against the Saints would've been the softer landing spot for Dart. The Giants are again at home in Week 4, but they're going up against the 3-0 Chargers – one of the best defenses, particularly against the pass, in the NFL thus far. Banking wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos, LA ranks third in pass defense EPA, third in opposing QB rating, third in NET yards per attempt allowed and fifth in completion percentage allowed.

All of that is to say, this could be an ugly debut for Dart. Unsurprisingly, Jim Harbaugh has had plenty of success going up against rookie quarterbacks.

With Justin Herbert playing at an MVP level – 5/1 at DraftKings and FanDuel – the Chargers have to be the side here.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Giants 14

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 44.5

With apologies to Titans-Texans, this is pretty clearly the headliner of the early window on Sunday. Both teams enter at 3-0 coming off of wild victories in Week 3. Philly is, of course, coming off of The Cover of the Century, thanks to a blocked field goal – their second in two possessions – returned for a touchdown by Jordan Davis as time expired.

But for much of the afternoon, the Eagles appeared dead in the water. They finished the first half with just 33 yards on 22 plays and trailed 26-7 early in the third quarter after LA turned a Jalen Hurts sack-fumble into a quick touchdown. From that point on, the Eagles ripped off 26 unanswered points behind a huge second half from Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

If nothing else, it was a reminder that Philly can, in fact, throw the ball when it needs to, even against a Rams defense that played an incredible first half.

For the third time in three weeks, the Bucs needed a late, go-ahead score to pull out a win over the Jets. Tampa Bay looked to be in cruise control for most of the day before the Jets blocked a field goal and Will McDonald returned it for a score to give the Jets a one-point lead with 1:49 to play. Just as he did against Atlanta in Week 1 and Houston in Week 2, Baker Mayfled led the Bucs down the field and put Chase McLoughlin in position to kick a 36-yarder as time expired.

Mayfield's late-game heroics have been impressive, but at the same time, the Bucs have been on the brink of losing all three games thus far. Cluster injuries on the offensive line are also a significant concern – Tampa had five holding calls on its first drive alone – though help could be coming this week in the form of Tristan Wirfs. Tampa could also get Chris Godwin back this week, but the Bucs will be without Mike Evans (hamstring). While Godwin's return would provide a jolt, it's fair to expect him to require some ramp-up time, so missing Evans still counts as a short-term hit.

It's worth noting that the Bucs have had the Eagles' number of late. They've won six of the last seven matchups, including a playoff win two seasons ago and a convincing, 33-16 victory in Week 4 last season. Even so, Philly has the health and talent advantage in this matchup, and the Bucs can't expect to keep pulling off these late-game highwire acts every week.

We'll roll with Philly to win by a field goal on the road.

The pick: Eagles 26 – Buccaneers 23

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -7.0

Total: 38.5

Not a whole lot to say here. The Titans coming in at 0-3 is far from surprising, but Houston – the preseason AFC South favorite – is in full-on desperation mode after an ugly loss in Jacksonville last week. Through three games, the Texans are dead-last in scoring (38 total points), 29th in offensive EPA, 29th in total yards, 22nd in yards per play and dead-last in total first downs. Houston has only visited the red zone four times and hasn't come away with a single touchdown.

Playing behind a predictably awful offensive line, C.J. Stroud has essentially picked up where he left off last season and currently sits as one of the five least-effective quarterbacks in the NFL by EPA and success rate. Deep down, I'm still somewhat of a Stroud believer, but he threw a pair of picks in the fourth quarter last week that, coupled with a Nico Collins fumble, contributed to another all-around "what the hell was that?" game for Houston's offense.

Defensively, the Texans have been solid but not otherworldly enough to offset the offense's inability to string drives together.

Perhaps the Titans are the remedy the Texans need right now. After looking plenty frisky in Week 1 at Denver, Tennessee has been beaten down by the Rams and Colts in consecutive weeks. Talent and coaching competency are both at a deficit in Nashville, so this should be a nice bounceback spot for Houston. With that said, it's tough to trust the Texans to score enough to comfortably cover a 7.0-point spread.

We'll roll with Houston to pull out a narrow cover, but this is in stay-away territory for me.

The pick: Texans 21 – Titans 13

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -3.0

Total: 47.5

This game will be rightfully overshadowed in the late window, but keep in mind we're just one Jaguars implosion-against-a-backup-quarterback-who-threw-three-picks away from this being a matchup between a pair of 3-0 teams. Each side has been a difficult evaluation thus far for very different reasons.

For the Niners, the injuries are the obvious variable. George Kittle went out in Week 1. Brock Purdy has missed the last two games. Jauan Jennings sat out last week. Brandon Aiyuk is yet to play a snap. And Nick Bosa is now lost for the year with a torn ACL. Even with yet another year of horrific injury luck, the Niners sit at 3-0 with a pair of quality divisional wins.

Jacksonville hasn't been bitten by the injury bug, but as usual with this franchise, every possession feels like a roller coaster. The Jags' offense has taken an overall step forward under Liam Coen, though facing the Panthers and Bengals to begin the year is part of the equation. The win over Carolina was a dominant effort, but the last two weeks have more closely resembled the Jags of old. Jacksonville committed mistake after mistake in Week 2 and nearly found a way to blow it last week against Houston.

Ironically, the Jags' defense has been the saving grace thus far and looks like one of the most-improved units in the NFL. Through three games, the Jags have already racked up nine takeaways – as many as they had all of last season, which is… astonishing. The Jags forced three turnovers alone in the fourth quarter last week, but it's difficult to bank on that kind of turnover luck against a well-coached Niners team.

With the assumption that Brock Purdy is back under center this week, we'll side with the Niners to take advantage of some inevitable Lawrence mistakes. Jacksonville has not beaten the Niners SU since 2005, by the way. That was David Garrard and 36-year-old Jimmy Smith prevailing over rookie Alex Smith, who was 8-of-24 passing in a 10-9 loss. The U47.5 is my favorite play here.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Jaguars 20

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -3.5

Total: 48.5

The Colts' 3-0 start is among the most memorable in recent years, and this may be the game that finally answers the age-old question: Are the Colts actually good?

With wins over Miami, Denver and Tennessee, I've seen enough to, at the very least, say that the Colts are a significantly better operation than just about anyone expected. We can quibble about the competition, which is fair, but Indy ranks in the top-five in just about every offensive metric, while Daniel Jones still leads the league in EPA and success rate, sitting behind only Lamar Jackson in yards per attempt.

Jones is the rightful headliner, but Jonathan Taylor is also off to a monster start, including back-to–back games with at least 6.0 yards per carry. Even if Indy loses this game, I feel comfortable saying this team is mostly for real, much like last year's Vikings with Sam Darnold.

On the Rams' side, this is an obvious bounceback spot after blowing what should have been a signature win in Philly last week. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford is easily the best coach-quarterback combination Indy will have faced, and the same goes for the Puka Nacua-Davante Adams combo at wide receiver.

I like the Rams to win this game at home, but I'll be surprised if the Colts make this easy.

The pick: Rams 27 – Colts 23

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Ravens -2.5

Total: 48.5

Hard to believe one of these teams is going to be contemplating life at 1-3 come Sunday night. The Ravens are no strangers to slow starts – remember, they did start 0-2 last season – but this is unfamiliar territory for the Chiefs, who haven't faced this kind of early season pressure in quite some time.

Kansas City got a much-needed road win at the Giants on Sunday night, but as has been the case for a year-plus now, it was far from impressive. Kansas City finished with only 22 points on 306 total yards and incurred eight penalties for 85 yards. Turnovers (2 for the Giants) and third-downs ended up being the difference, as KC converted 8-of-15 chances, while the Giants went 1-of-10 on third down and 1-of-4 on fourth down.

A win is a win, I guess, but the Chiefs continue to play an uninspiring brand of football – at least on offense. The defense appears to have taken a notable step forward over the last two weeks.

On the other side, Baltimore is coming off of its second crushing home primetime loss in three weeks. With The Letdown against Buffalo still fresh in the mind, the Ravens were beat up by Detroit on Monday night, allowing 38 points, 6.5 yards per play and 224 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore ran for only 85 yards, while Lamar Jackson tied his career high with seven sacks taken.

I hate to slap the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week on a game of this magnitude, but we're doing it. Deep down, I lean on the Ravens' talent advantage to win out, but the Chiefs are at home and have the defense to once again limit Baltimore's rushing attack. 

The pick: Chiefs 24 -- Ravens 23

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -1.5

Total: 47.0

Sneaky-fun game in the late window between a pair of 1-2 teams. Vegas has now dropped two straight after beating the Pats in Week 1, while the Bears' offense woke up in a major way last week in a home victory over the Cowboys. An early Dallas fumble, coupled with CeeDee Lamb going out, certainly helped the cause, but it still felt like a meaningful step forward for Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and Co. – even if the Cowboys' defense is an abject disaster.

Dallas did out-gain the Bears, however, so the Chicago defense remains a liability in its own right until proven otherwise. As such, we have a relatively high total at 47.5. That's a reflection of both defenses, as well as two offenses that seek out big plays. While the Raiders gave up 41 points to Marcus Mariota last week, they still put up 5.7 yards per play, while Tre Tucker went off for eight catches, 145 yards and three scores.

This is another complete toss-up game between two flawed teams. We'll hang on for dear life with the home side.

The pick: Raiders 27 -- Bears 24

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Packers -6.5

Total: 48.0

After a massive letdown game against Cleveland in Week 3, the Packers will look to bounce back against a banged-up Cowboys team that's given up 31 to the Bears and 37 to the Giants over the last two weeks. Dallas' defense ranks 30th in total yards allowed, 31st in yards per play, and dead-last in yards per pass attempt, while forcing just one turnover through three weeks.

So in theory, this should be a good spot for Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs and the Packers' ensemble cast of receivers to get back on track. The Cowboys will be without CeeDee Lamb and two starters on the offensive line, and it remains to be seen whether the likes of DaRon Bland and TreVon Diggs will be cleared to play.

I like the Packers' defense to once again clamp down, but if there's a concern on the Green Bay side, it's an offensive line that posted one of the worst all-around performances in recent memory last week. 

Even with those OLine concerns, we like this as a spot for Green Bay to get back to pushing the ball down the field – something Love didn't do whatsoever against the Browns. He attempted just one throw beyond 10 yards in that game after doing so 25 times in Weeks 1 and 2.

Packers win and cover to move to 3-1.

The pick: Packers 31 – Cowboys 21

Monday Night Football

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.0

Total: 44.5

While I am a fan of these Monday Night Football double-headers, I prefer our Week 2 arrangement with true back-to-back starts. This week, we get Jets-Dolphins at 7:15pm ET with Bengals-Broncos starting an hour later. Not the end of the world for those of us in multi-TV households, but as a card-carrying night owl, we love a good 10pm ET kickoff.

Anyway, primetime football is primetime football, and even if that means a matchup between a pair of 0-3 teams, we're not complaining. It goes without saying that this game is in stay-away territory. The Jets head out on the road after another losing at the buzzer last week to Tampa Bay, though New York deserves plenty of credit for rallying back with Tyrod Taylor at the helm.

Likewise, Miami is still in crisis mode, but the Dolphins had a respectable showing in Buffalo on Thursday night and carry a rest advantage into this matchup. On paper, Miami has more firepower, but the Dolphins are yet to fully get their offense on track, and it already feels as though MIke McDaniel is coaching for his job on a week-to-week basis.

We have some injury situations to monitor – including Sauce Gardner – leading up to Monday night, but my initial lean is on the Jest to win outright.

Uniform note to consider: Miami will be wearing it's "rivalry" uniforms, which are very cool.

The pick: Jets 24 – Dolphins 23

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -7.0

Total: 43.5

A couple of weeks ago, we would've circled this as one of the games of the week. Instead, we get Jake Browning going up against the 1-2 Broncos – one of three teams yet to cover this season. After barely squeaking by the Titans at home in Week 1, Denver has lost two heartbreakers in a row to the Colts and Chargers. 

With the Bengals coming off of a full-on shellacking at the hands of the Vikings last week, this should be a get-right spot for Denver. At the same time, that felt like a worst-case-scenario game for Cincy – the Bengals turned it over five times – and it'll be almost impossible to play that poorly again.

Even so, the Bengals' complete lack of a running game is a major issue, while the Broncos' defense should be able to tee off on an offensive line that ranks dead-last in run blocking and 27th in pass blocking at PFF.

The pick: Broncos 27 – Bengals 17