Exploiting the Matchups: Week 4 Start/Sit

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Updated on September 30, 2021 4:01PM EST

For the first few weeks of each campaign, matchup discussion depends on preseason expectations and injuries more so than what's actually happened on the field so far in the current year. Small sample, and all that, but some time around Week 4/5 it's time to start putting a lot more weight on year-to-date performance, including/especially outliers.

Personally, I lean toward moderation/regression when it comes to player and team projections, so you probably can't convince me, for example, that the Raiders truly have a good defense... nor do I believe that Cooper Kupp is really miles ahead of Robert Woods R-O-S.

But, I am confident the Vegas defense is at least better than last year, though perhaps ultimately mediocre rather than good. And it's also likely something has happened within the Rams offense (QB change, Woods declining, Kupp improving, etc.) and it probably isn't just luck/matchups causing a widened gap between the team's top receivers; Kupp needs to be ranked way ahead of Woods for now.

Accordingly, our matchup discussion below will start to incorporate more findings from the current campaign, even if stuff like Defense vs. Position stats and DVOA requires a lot of additional context to be useful after a three-week sample. Injuries and prior-year results remain huge considerations, and for the most part we can still expect some degree of bounce-back from the biggest over/underperformers of the season (anyone home, WTF defense?).

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

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Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (vs. KC)

58% started

While Philadelphians may not have enjoyed the past two weeks, Hurts' fantasy managers actually came out of it okay, first saved by a 10-82-1 rushing line in the Week 2 loss to San Francisco and then by garbage-time passing production in the Week 3 loss at Dallas. With 21.8 or more fantasy points each week, Hurts is already a top-10 fantasy QB even as his real-life prospects remain TBD.

Maybe he lands on the bench, eventually, but for now he'll face a slumping Chiefs defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass and has given up the second most fantasy points to QBs. They won't be that bad all season, but until we see signs of a turnaround, KC's defense can be treated as a favorable matchup for all opponents, even those with banged-up offensive lines like the Eagles.

Honorable Mentions: Baker Mayfield, CLE at MIN; Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. SEA; Taylor Heinicke, WAS at ATL; Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET

Running Backs

Nyheim Hines (at MIA)

27% started

This is a great rebound spot for Jonathan Taylor, but also a situation where both Indianapolis running backs are worth starting, especially now that Marlon Mack is sidelined while the Colts try to find a trade. Hines is averaging 5.3 targets, 5.3 carries and 61.0 total yards per game on 45.6 percent of snaps, and while he'll perhaps play a bit less than that this week, the matchup should allow for production even if his workload is closer to 8-10 touches than 15.

Miami has given up the second most fantasy points to running backs, despite facing the Patriots, Bills and Raiders to date. It was one thing to make Damien Harris look good, but then the Dolphins did the same for Devin Singletary and Peyton Barber. Apart from the talented secondary, Miami's defense appears rather vulnerable.

Zack Moss (vs. HOU)

23% started

In Week 1, Moss didn't play at all. Week 2, he got just 25.5 percent of snaps before the fourth quarter but then scored two garbage-time TDs to cap off a 35-0 victory. Finally, in Week 3, Moss returned to his 2020 role splitting work with Devin Singletary, getting 56.8 percent of snaps (and nine touches) in the first half, followed by 52.9 percent (plus seven more carries) in the second. Sure, the blowout was a factor, but there's a decent chance the game this Sunday turns out similar (Buffalo -16). Moss could be especially busy if forecasts for rain/wind in Buffalo prove accurate.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon, CIN vs. JAX; Jonathan Taylor, IND at MIA; Miles Sanders, PHI vs. KC; Josh Jacobs or Peyton Barber, LV at LAC; Michael Carter, NYJ vs. TEN

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods (vs. ARZ)

73% started

The Cardinals are getting a breakout year from 23-year-old corner Byron Murphy, a 2019 second-round pick who guards the slot in nickel packages and lines up outside in the base defense. This week, Murphy figures to work almost exclusively inside, with the Rams using 11 personnel at the second-highest rate (79.7 percent of snaps) in the league this year.

Woods will see some of Murphy, but he should run more of his routes against Arizona's other corners, rookie fourth-round pick Marco Wilson and 32-year-old Robert Alford. There's obviously something to the notion that Cooper Kupp has simply surpassed Woods in the L.A. passing game, but the latter does have a relative matchup advantage this week, having run less than 40 percent of his routes from the slot. Don't bench Woods just yet; he and Kupp should both do well in this one, even if Murphy shows out again.

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. SEA)

31% started

Aiyuk may end up as only the No. 2 WR and No. 3 pass catcher on his own team, but even if that turns out to be the case, there's potential for three players to reach triple-digit targets in an offense where the running backs, backup TEs and third wideout aren't getting many looks. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are the only guys averaging more than 2.7 per game, and while Aiyuk is obviously off to a poor start, he did go for 4-37-1 on six targets last week, finally returning to a full-time role (86 percent snap share) in the loss to Green Bay. Both Aiyuk and Samuel should have nice days against Seattle cornerbacks Tre Flowers and D.J. Reed, hardly the Legion of Boom of years' past.

Jakobi Meyers (vs. TB)

28% started

After seeing 14 looks last week, Meyers is tied for 12th in raw targets (29) and ranks 23rd in target share (24.8 percent). He still has zero TDs on 104 career receptions for 1,264 yards, and while that's only partially a fluke, Meyers can get by in fantasy without the six-pointers when he's seeing this type of steady volume. He should be busy again this week, facing Tampa's run-stuffing, pass-funneling defense with 30-year-old Ross Cockrell filling in for injured slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting (shoulder).

The Bucs also have starting perimeter corner Jamel Dean (knee) in doubt for Week 4, and it isn't clear recent signing Richard Sherman will be cleared for an every-down role (or even be effective) if he plays. The Bucs still have an impressive front seven to get after Mac Jones and help cover the middle of the field, but the Pats can counter with quick throws to Meyers, who has taken 68.6 percent of his snaps in the slot this year. The team's downfield receiver, Nelson Agholor, is also an interesting option this week, albeit with more risk/variance than his frequently targeted teammate (Agholor's aDOT is 15.8, Meyers' 9.8).

Honorable Mentions: Odell Beckham, CLE at MIN; DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. KC; Corey Davis, NYJ vs. TEN; Robby Anderson, CAR at DAL; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. PIT; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at NYJ

Tight End

Logan Thomas (vs. ATL)

76% started

At this time last year, Thomas was frequently targeted but highly inefficient, struggling to find his footing in a three-down role. These days, his target volume (just 14 this season) is lagging behind the still-robust snap share, but with Thomas now a more refined player who is capable of doing more with less. The hope here is that he can do more with more, facing the feeble Atlanta defense in what should be a close game between struggling teams.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. ARZ; Jared Cook, LAC vs. LV; Anthony Firkser, TEN at NYJ

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Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill (at NYJ)

41% started

The Jets are terrible, no doubt, but mostly on account of their offense rather than their defense, at least through the first three weeks. They've actually allowed the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and while a lot of that has to do with matchup (CAR, NE, DEN), the Jets also have faced the seventh-fewest attempts and have given up a reasonable 7.2 YPA.

That's not to say we should trust the Jets defense, especially with those cornerbacks, but it's at least close enough to competent that we need to start worrying about Tannehill when one of his top receivers (A.J. Brown - hamstring) is likely out and the other (Julio Jones - leg) looking very questionable. The Titans have a modest implied total of 25.5, and given the circumstances, they may lean on Derrick Henry more than usual. Both teams may be content to play a slow-paced game with lots of running plays and not many shots downfield.

Honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson, BAL at DEN; Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. BAL; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at GB;

Running Backs

Javonte Williams (vs. BAL)

25% started

The Ravens have surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to running backs, but that's mostly on account of receiving production and goal-line TDs rather than struggles defending the run. In fact, despite playing last week's games with a slew of front-seven players on the COVID list, Baltimore ranks 10th in run-defense DVOA and eighth in opponent YPC (3.8) for the season.

While Williams can maybe score a goal-line TD for the second straight week, fantasy managers shouldn't count on it, nor should they expect much else. For starters, it's highly unlikely both Williams (12.0 carries per game) and Gordon (14.0) can sustain their rushing volume now that the Broncos are facing real teams instead of the Giants/Jags/Jets. Then there's the lack of receiving opportunity, with Williams running a route on 32 of Teddy Bridgewater's 102 dropbacks (31.3 percent) to date. (Gordon is at 52.9%, albeit with only one more target, 7-6).

Ty'Son Williams (at DEN)

15% started

Williams is a sinking ship, now well below 20 percent started on Yahoo after he was up at 53 percent last week for a seemingly promising matchup against the Lions. With apologies for the mixed metaphor, this is one where the herd of lemmings has it right and should immediately be followed off the cliff (turns out it's just a four-foot drop).

Williams did get his usual snap share (50 percent) last week, yet finished with only five carries and one target, after averaging 11.0 and 3.0 over the first two games. It's easy to look at his 6.1 YPC and wonder why he doesn't get more touches, but we can also see the Ravens' reasons for simply de-prioritizing their running backs this year. Williams may be the best of the bunch, but only because his competition is so washed up. I want him on a bench, not in a lineup, until we get a better feel for his role and whether the Ravens really trust him to execute assignments in their option-heavy offense.

Honorable Mentions: Saquon Barkley, NYG at NO; Damien Harris, NE vs. TB; James Conner, ARZ vs. LAR; Mark Ingram, HOU at BUF

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks (at BUF)

56% started

Cooks is determined to make me look like a fool for listing him here week after week. He IS the Houston passing game, with a league-high 56.7 percent share of team air yards as well as the second-largest target share (37.6 percent, a hair behind Davante Adams' 37.8). In deeper leagues, those numbers make him an every-week starter, no matter the environment.

However, Cooks still isn't an auto-start for shallower formats, as his efficiency numbers inevitably will decline throughout the year. Even if he's truly better than ever before, there's no way he can maintain 10.1 YPT or a 71.9 percent catch rate in an offense this bad. That's especially true this weekend, with Cooks facing potential shadow coverage from Bills CB Tre'Davious White in what could be a bad-weather game.

Honorable Mentions: DeAndre Hopkins, ARZ at LAR; Michael Pittman & Parris Campbell, IND at MIA; Marquise Brown & Sammy Watkins, BAL at DEN; Chase Claypool, PIT at GB; Laviska Shenault, JAX at CIN;

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (at NE)

69% started

As of Thursday morning, the Yahoo crowd has Gronk at 69 percent started for his big return to New England. Which is fitting, yes, but perhaps also a bit optimistic after a rib injury limited the tight end to 62 percent snap share last week. While reporters are already calling him a near-lock to play this week, Gronkowski didn't practice Wednesday and won't necessarily be his usual self by Sunday, and even with all the fun narratives at play, a visit to New England is rarely ideal from a pass catcher's standpoint. My guess is that Gronkowski plays, but loses more snaps/routes/targets than usual to Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. Then again, you might feel kinda guilty if you bench Gronk and he drops to 68 percent.