Week 14 Observations

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Published on December 14, 2020

Usually I only notice luck when it's bad, but I have to admit a few things broke my way Sunday. The Dolphins and Lions both getting 7.5 points, backdoor covering, giving up the covers, then opting for field goals to cut the lead to single-digits before failed onside kicks was textbook. The Chargers picking off Matt Ryan twice in the fourth quarter and somehow not botching the end game and the field goal? A borderline miracle. And what greater gift could there be than Dan Bailey missing three field goals and a PAT when you had the Buccaneers minus 6.5? It just goes to show, if you're a good person the universe looks out for you.

The Steelers dink and dunk passing game and inability to run won't be enough against good teams. Their defense is good, but it's not all-time good.
Josh Allen struggled early but found himself in the second half, mainly by targeting Stefon Diggs (14-10-130-1.) The Bills are the second best team in the AFC and have a puncher's chance against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Brandon Aiyuk (16-10-119) should be the only game in town now that Deebo Samuel is hurt again. Get your 2021 49ers futures now for when those two and George Kittle are on the field at the same time.
The Giants really blew it, beating the Football Team in overtime last year in Week 16. Instead of Andrew Thomas, they would have had Chase Young.
Without Julio Jones, Matt Ryan is just a guy. And the best Falcons pass play of the day was by Russell Gage, who threw a perfect 39-yard TD to Calvin Ridley.
Justin Herbert still passes the eye test, and the Falcons defense has improved, but Herbert's last five games by YPA are: 5.8, 7.5, 6.1, 3.9 and 5.5. And the 7.5 was a home game against the Jets.
Eagles-Saints announcer Daryl Johnston must have been shrooming. How else could he seriously claim Doug Pederson has a tough call to make between Jalen Hurts, who played flawlessly in his first start against one of the league's best defenses, and Carson Wentz, the league leader in sacks, fumbles and picks? It goes to show when you're an insider like Johnston, and presumably friendly with players, coaches and front office people, how skewed and divorced from common sense your views can become. Now multiply that by 1000, and consider the information we get from plugged-in corporate media about politics and foreign affairs.
Hurts was decisive, got rid of the ball when he had to, threw no picks and took no sacks. His only blemish was a late fumble as the Eagles were running out the clock. He's already the best healthy QB in the NFC East by a mile.
Taysom Hill wasn't bad -- even if he missed a couple open throws -- and finally got Alvin Kamara (11-50-1, 10-7-44-0) involved. That's good news for Kamara owners because Drew Brees might not be back until Week 16.
There's not much to say about Packers-Lions. That game went almost exactly how you'd expect it to go, though Marvin Jones got jobbed of a great 40-something-yard sideline catch just outside the end zone.
The Jets are hilarious, missing three of four field goals, all from inside 45 yards. (They're hilarious for other reasons, too, obviously.)
Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2, 2-2-15) crushed it for me in the consolation round of the NFFC Primetime, as did a now healthy T.Y. Hilton (7-5-86-2.)
The Raiders defense is terrible, arguably the worst in the league.
Josh Jacobs jokingly posted on Instagram that he wasn't playing Sunday, only to suit up, start and handle his usual workload. Given how seriously people take fantasy football (and how much money changes hands when you include DFS), that's playing with fire.
Is Derrick Henry (26-215-2, 2-2-7) especially good in December (fantasy playoffs), or is it just a scheduling coincidence the last three years?
Gardner Minshew is younger and obviously better than Mike Glennon. Odd he was held out even though his thumb had healed.
I didn't catch much of the Carolina-Denver game, but Mike Davis (two TDs, five catches, 93 total yards) was a difference-maker in Round 1 and has a nice matchup against the Packers next week if Christian McCaffrey is still out.
Dan Bailey not only missed a 46-yard field-goal attempt and a 54-yarder, but also a 36-yarder and an extra point. And while there's no shame in missing a 54-yard try, the kick was laughably bad, as though he were aiming for an alternate set of uprights 30 yards to the right. This year had been the golden era of NFL kicking too -- until the last two weeks.
Dalvin Cook (22-102-1, 4-2-8) didn't have a problem against one of the league's top two run defenses.
Tom Brady missed two wide open throws, one to Chris Godwin and one to Rob Gronkowski, but settled down in the final three quarters. There's nothing wrong with his arm, but something still isn't tight in the Buccaneers' passing game.
Like Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones (18-80-1, 1-1-3-0) has finally established himself as the lead back beyond all doubt. In fact, Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch, with LeSean McCoy's of all corpses, handling the change of pace duties. Fournette is pushing into Trent Richardson territory.
Daniel Jones (hamstring) probably shouldn't have suited up, and maybe his performance had something to do with that. But he regressed badly, holding the ball way too long and fumbling three times (losing one.) There's decent chance the Giants will be looking for a new quarterback this offseason.
Dion Lewis fumbled a kick return, though it's not his fault Bruce Lee was on the coverage team (the defender karate-kicked the ball out of his hands, something that was missed by the officials.)
The Giants defense actually played well, holding the Cardinals to 4.9 YPP, but the offense hung it out to dry too many times. The Cardinals had a 38:22 time-of-possession advantage.
Kyler Murray was okay, but nothing special. He hurt the Giants a couple times with his scrambling for first downs and made one great throw in the face of a blitz to Dan Arnold for a TD.
Patrick Mahomes threw three picks, took three sacks, and it still took a furious comeback and last-minute field goal for the Dolphins even to cover a 7.5 point spread at home.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (16-32-0, 6-5-59) finally got work in the passing game. Le'Veon Bell (2-21-0, 3-2-14) was a minor factor.
The Dolphins have lost all their skill players and even most of the backups. Their leading rusher was DeAndre Washington, their leading receivers Lynn Bowden (9-7-82-0) and Mack Hollins (9-5-66-0) after Mike Gesicki (6-5-65-2) and DeVante Parker (2-0-0) left with injuries.
Another player back from the dead, A.J. Green (7-6-62-1) scored points from the waiver wire, but Gio Bernard was benched for a half after losing a fumble for the first time since 2013. A real coach like Zac Taylor makes sure Bernard isn't suddenly getting lax about ball security.
Andy Dalton got his revenge, but he didn't need to do much, attempting only 23 passes.
The Bears, who were actually underdogs, destroyed the Texans. Even the great Deshaun Watson needs pass protection and competent wide receivers. Even Mitchell Trubisky (revenge game for being unfavorably compared to Watson ahead of whom he was drafted) can light it up against a terrible defense.