Weekly PGA Preview: 3M Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

3M Open

TPC Twin Cities
Blaine, MN

The PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for the fifth edition of the 3M Open.

Before we get to that, a few thoughts on this past week's Open Championship. With Brian Harman running away with the Claret Jug, the overriding argument turned to the entertainment value of the event. Many thought this particular edition was a snooze -- especially on the weekend. The counter is that Harman's performance was incredible and a sight to behold. Guess what? Both are true. As someone who loves watching excellence, I -- while acknowledging that Harman was quite excellent -- found myself bored to tears. It was at the same time Harman's fault and the fault of those chasing him, but Harman has nothing to be sorry for. He did his job and none of the other players did theirs. Well, maybe that's a bit harsh. Harman simply did his job much better than anyone else.

If Rory or Rahm or Scheffler ran away like Harman did, would it still be considered boring? This is where we get into semantics. It certainly captures my attention when a great player does something other-worldly, but it doesn't get my blood pumping, and that's ultimately what I want from a major. I want to get nervous, anxious, excited -- all of that -- so in that sense, yeah, even a great player running away would make me bored. 

A prefect example is Tiger Woods. When he was racking up majors it was fascinating, but I'm not sure it was exciting. We were all amazed at what he was doing, but we were essentially watching one player every Sunday because no one else mattered. I much prefer his major wins that held some drama. We all recall the famous shot on the 16th at Augusta, when his Nike ball sat on the lip for a split second before ultimately falling. That shot was so memorable because it meant something -- he needed that shot! How many shots do you remember from the 1997 Masters or the 2000 U.S. Open? Probably not many. You remember the scene as a whole and the historical performances, but those final rounds weren't all that thrilling. Like Harman's victory, Tiger's wins weren't any less important. They just weren't all that enjoyable at the end of the day.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Tony Finau shot a final-round 67 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Emiliano Grillo and Sungjae Im.

FAVORITES

Cameron Young (14-1)

Finally, we're back to some reasonable odds on the favorite. All of the single-digit stuff was getting ridiculous. Among all the times Scheffler, McIlroy or Rahm had a lone digit on the left side this year, how many times did they win? Not many by my account, which goes to show that any odds under 10 are a no-go. It's crazy that Young has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but we all know he will, and soon. He looks different when he swings a club, and I'm not talking Jim Furyk different. I'm talking men-amongst-boys different. He's got something special and once he wins the floodgates are going to open, much like they did for Scheffler over the past year. This looks like a perfect spot for a breakthrough, as a gettable course should free Young up to play his best game. One thing of note is that Young likely needs a top-2 in Minnesota to jump into the top six in the Ryder Cup standings and secure a spot on the U.S. team.

Tony Finau (16-1)

Finau is the defending champion, but his form isn't great. Luckily, he's returning to a course that's not very difficult, so I have a feeling he will get back on track. With that said, he's not getting much value at his current price, so I'll take a pass.

Sungjae Im (16-1)

Im did not play his best golf over the past couple months, but he does have a good track record here. He finished runner-up last year and T15 in his first start in this event in 2019. Though he finished top-20 at Hoylake, it's tough to overlook his four missed cuts in previous six starts. Im -- like any of the top players in the field -- is capable of getting hot on an easy track, but at his current price there's not much reason to place a wager.

THE NEXT TIER

Sepp Straka (22-1)

I'm curious to see how Straka responds. It would have been easy for him to write off The Open after winning the John Deere Classic, but he did just the opposite. Now he returns to a regular event after contending at a major. He's definitely on a roll, but can he contend for a third straight week? I'm not sure, but at this price -- against a field that's not very top-heavy -- I think he's worth a look.

Emiliano Grillo (25-1)

Grillo played well this past week, but like everyone else who finished near the top, there's no threat of a hangover because no one really made much of a run at Harman. With that in mind, what we have here is a golfer who's playing well right now, with no worries about what might have been. Grillo also has the benefit of a solid track record here, with two top-3s in three starts.

Ludvig Aberg (28-1)

Aberg was on a roll heading into the Scottish Open, and while he fell flat in that spot, I think a week off will do him wonders. Aberg finished fourth in his most recent stateside start, which was the culmination of a run that saw him earn over $600,000 in four starts. Perhaps the switch to links-style golf threw him off his game. Whatever the case, a week to reset should serve him well.

LONG SHOTS

Mark Hubbard (60-1)

Hubbard has been on quite the roll, posting four top-10s in his seven most recent starts. He had a bit of a hiccup in late June when he missed two consecutive cuts, but he rebounded nicely with top-10s at the John Deere and Barracuda Championship. Hubbard has just one start in this tournament, but he managed a post a top-20, so there should be some good vibes upon his return to Minnesota.

Taylor Montgomery (110-1)

Remember this guy? Who would have thought after his hot start to the season that he'd be over 100-1 at the 3M Open? Montgomery has obviously fallen on hard times, and yet he remains 10th on the PGA Tour in birdie average. He's good at going low, but often runs into issues with high scores. That might not be as big of a problem this week on what is one of the easier courses out there. Perhaps better scoring conditions will get him back on track.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Tony Finau - If you've still got Finau available, you're probably using him here, even though he hasn't been at his best lately. The field isn't necessarily weak, but it's not very top-heavy, which should provide Finau the opportunity to grab another PGA Tour win. Whether he takes advantage remains to be seen.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Emiliano Grillo - He was probably going to be a popular pick this week no matter how he fared in England, but considering how he played there, Grillo is bound to be among the top few players chosen. If you are chasing the leaders, this might not be your guy. But if you want to hold your position, Grillo is the perfect pick.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Mark Hubbard - For those chasing the lead, it's officially desperation time. With that in mind, you need to loosen your standards a bit. Hubbard has been a great OAD player during his recent. If he can post another top-10 this week and some other top players stumble, you could make up some nice ground.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - I realize this is low-hanging fruit, but there's obviously something off with Thomas right now, and I don't think that will be fixed within a week. Thomas is simply too talented to play like this for much longer, but it's not easy to go from a prolonged stretch of poor play to contending in a short span, so it's best to just wait it out with him. He will find his game again, but it might take a little more time.

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - It's strange not to see my pick listed anywhere above, but this is a bit of a unique circumstance. Two other players have the same 16-1 odds as Matsuyama, and I went with them above. At that rate, he's not a mid-tier option either. He fell through the cracks so to say, which is why this is the first you're seeing of him. I also believe that he will be overlooked by many OAD players because he doesn't have much of a track record here and he hasn't made much noise recently.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tony Finau ($12,000)
Middle Range: Mark Hubbard ($9,800)
Lower Range: Will Gordon ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Tony Finau - It's not ideal to take a guy who missed his past two cuts, but Finau has made the weekend in all four trips to Minnesota, so he obviously has an affinity for this course. He missed the cut in while trying to defend his Rocket Mortgage Classic title, so you can bet he will be ultra-focused this week.

Previous Results