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UFC 317 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 317 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight Championship
Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) v. Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Topuria ($9,300), Oliveira ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Topuria (-425), Oliveira (+330)
This fight will be for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship, vacated by Islam Makhachev so he can challenge Jack Della Maddalena for the UFC Welterweight Championship at a date yet to be determined.
Topuria's involvement here was inevitable given he's undefeated as a professional and vacated his 145-pound title to make the jump. Ilia knocked out Alexander Volkanovski for the belt back in February 2024 and then knocked out Max Holloway in his lone title defense last October. He also has UFC victories over the likes of Bryce Mitchell and Josh Emmett. He's legit and has had one of the quickest and most impressive rises to the top in company history.
Whether or not Oliveira deserves the opportunity is up for debate. After all, he's just 2-2 in his past four fights. The defeats were a split decision to Arman Tsarukyan and a submission setback to Makhachev, while the wins were a unanimous decision over Michael Chandler and a knockout of Beneil Dariush. Charles will be 36 years old in October, and he's had a great career and been a company man for a long time, so it feels like the UFC is doing him a favor by giving him one more shot at a championship.
Topuria has fought as low as bantamweight, but he does have one career fight at 155 pounds, and it came with the UFC. It was back in March 2022 and was a knockout of Jai Herbert.
Ilia's power is ridiculous for a smaller fighter. He has six career wins via knockout, with five of them coming in his past seven fights. He's far more accomplished than Charles on the feet and will have a significant edge for as long as these two are at striking range. The only things working in Oliveira's favor are the fact he's three inches taller and will have a five-inch reach edge.
Charles has a tendency to get sucked into brawls. He's been knocked out four times in his career, and there have been countless other times in which he was seriously damaged by strikes but managed to survive. He needs to fight a smart game plan here if he wants to pull the upset.
Both of these men average about two takedowns per 15 minutes, but it's Topuria that is sporting a 92 percent takedown defense. Oliveira on the other hand, is at 56 percent. Charles is bigger and more physical than most of Topuria's recent opponents, but I like Ilia's chances of remaining upright if that's the route he chooses to take.
The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that Topuria's power will be the difference here. There are some who think he's the best technical boxer in the UFC, but the power is the real difference-maker. Assuming it carries over to the higher weight class, and it should, I think he catches Oliveira with something big at some point.
That said, the price tag here isn't great if you're a Topuria backer. We never see Charles take a fight in which he's not competitive, so even if Ilia wins, it's highly unlikely you'll get full value on your DraftKings investment. Tread carefully.
THE PICK: Topuria
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) v. Kai Kara-France (25-11-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($9,000), Kara-France ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-265), Kara-France (+215)
Pantoja is getting set to make his fourth defense of his championship after winning the belt from Brandon Moreno via split decision back in July 2023. He took a lopsided unanimous decision from Brandon Royval, took a close unanimous decision from Steve Erceg, then submitted an overmatched debuting Kai Asakura in December. Pantoja looks like a potential long-term champion despite the fact he turned 35 years of age in April.
Kara-France is probably another guy not deserving of a title shot at this time, all things considered, but the division, particularly at the top, is quite thin. KKF was knocked out by Moreno in an interim title fight back in July 2022. He dropped a split decision to Amir Albazi in June 2023, then pulled a big upset with a knockout win over Erceg last August. One big victory is enough to vault you to the front of the line at 125 pounds these days.
Kara-France isn't the type of fighter I typically like to back.
The pure power is absolutely legitimate, with a dozen of his 25 career wins coming via knockout. That said, he's reckless on the feet and willing to engage in brawls. He doesn't set up his shots particularly well, instead preferring to swing for the bleachers with every shot.
To KKF's credit, he's proven capable of landing a lot of volume on the feet. He's posted 90-plus significant strikes twice in his UFC run, and 80-plus two other times. He's going to need that type of output if he wants to pull another upset here.
Offensively, Pantoja is a gritty all-around threat. He doesn't have the power of Kara-France, but he's a much better grappler. He's landed 26 takedowns in his last four fights and no fewer than six in any bout. He's not the most technical wrestler, but Pantoja doesn't stop coming. His cardio is good, and he constantly fights at a high pace.
On the flip side, Kara-France presents good takedown defense, checking in at 88 percent, but he has been submitted three times. That's Pantoja's clearest path to potential victory.
I think Pantoja deserves to be the favorite and is the better all-around fighter, and he's the pick, but I have concerns.
Chief among them is the fact he tends to take a ton of damage in all of his fights. His durability is some of the best in the sport, having never been finished in 34 professional bouts, but KKF hits harder than the guys he's faced recently.
Pantoja absorbed 111 significant strikes against Erceg, 111 against Royval, and 147 against Moreno. If he eats that kind of volume here, I could see Kara-France catching him with something.
It's not enough to change the pick, but it's giving me some hesitancy.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Flyweight
Brandon Royval (17-7-0) v. Joshua Van (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Royval ($8,200), Van ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Royval (-125), Van (+105)
This was originally scheduled to be Royval and Manel Kape, but Kape broke his foot, and Van -- who never turns down a fight -- stepped in.
This will be Van's second fight in a span of three weeks. He knocked out Bruno Silva late in Round 3 at UFC 316 in New Jersey on June 7. Van didn't absorb much damage in that fight and Royval represents an opponent ranked much higher in the rankings, so I have no problem with this move. I have said in the past that I think Van fights too much given his age (24 this coming October) and he would be better off picking and choosing his spots, but this is a rare opportunity. He could be looking at a title shot with an impressive win given the division's lack of depth.
Royval got his title shot back in December 2023 and was thoroughly dominated in a unanimous decision defeat against current champion Alexandre Pantoja. He has since rebounded with back-to-back split decisions wins over Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira. The Moreno win in particular was very impressive. Royval displayed a ton of heart and outworked Moreno -- an opponent known for his durability -- late in the bout.
Van wins with cardio and pace. He averages a ridiculous 8.2 significant strikes landed per minute. He's posted 100-plus significant strikes in five of his eight UFC bouts, stunning numbers considering he is yet to be scheduled for a five-round fight. There was a time early in his company run that he was a bit of a slow starter, but that appears to have rectified itself of late. He's legit.
Royval has outperformed my expectations, as he's never been a guy I've rated all that highly. He does a lot of things similarly to Van, just not as well. He has five career wins via knockout, but just one with the UFC. Like Van, he's capable of putting up big volume numbers on the feet, but he doesn't do it with the same technical skill as his opponent. Royval's a brawler that gets by with grit, toughness, and an underrated ground game.
I'm very curious to see how much, if at all, Van tries to wrestle in this fight. That's not really his game, but he did take down Edgar Chairez, a one-dimensional striker, three times in their bout last September, and Royval's greatest weakness is his inability to stay upright. He holds a career takedown defense rate of just 45 percent, and he's given up at least three successful tries in three straight bouts.
My guess is this turns into an all-out sprint on the feet. It's what both of these guys are most known for. Maybe Van tries to seal a close round with a takedown, but I don't see him spamming together attempts.
He's the pick, and I expected him to be a moderate-sized favorite (-140 or so), so any potential savings as a slight underdog are welcome.
THE PICK: Van
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Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) v. Renato Moicano (20-6-1)
DK Salaries: Dariush ($7,800), Moicano ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+135), Moicano (-160)
This fight was due to take place at UFC 311 in January -- a card scheduled to be headlined by Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan for the UFC Lightweight Championship. Yet, Tsarukyan suffered an injury the day before the event, and Moicano was awarded the title shot instead. He ended up getting submitted by Makhachev in just over four minutes.
Moicano was on a roll prior to that bout, winning four straight dating back to November 2022. He didn't fight at all in 2023 and then went on to pick up three wins in less than eight months in 2024. His most recent triumph was by far his most impressive to date -- an absolute beatdown of Benoit Saint-Denis in a main event spot in Paris in late-September. I've had my doubts about Moicano in the past and still do in terms of him competing with the best, but he's clearly a top-10 guy despite the Makhachev result, even in a loaded lightweight division.
One of the most underrated fighters in the sport for north of a decade, Dariush won eight straight from November 2018 to October 2022. He was then pushed to the top of the food chain and suffered back-to-back knockout defeats to Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. He hasn't fought since December 2023. It should be noted that it was reported Dariush dealt with a torn meniscus during his time away. On one hand, the extended break probably isn't a bad thing, but on the other, Dariush turned 36 years of age in May and will be all but finished if he comes up short against Moicano.
Dariush is difficult to break down. He almost always starts slowly, which has cost him in the past. He has an impressive all-around game and no significant weaknesses, but he looks a bit sleepy inside the Octagon at times, and by the time he gets going, it can be too late. I actually thought the fact he was facing aggressive opposition like Tsarukyan and Olivieira might be a good thing because it would force him to get going early, but that turned out not to be the case. He's facing another opponent here in Moicano who floors the gas pedal throughout his fights.
Moicano is aggressive inside the Octagon to the point of recklessness. He was a big volume guy early in his career, but that has kind of dried up of late, as many of his fights have ended quickly. He has just two career wins via knockout, and they came in his two most recent wins against Saint-Denis and Turner. I wouldn't bet on the knockouts continuing, but he very clearly has enough power in his hands to damage his opponent.
I think Moicano's clearest path to victory is to try to make some headway on the feet early. Use Dariush's inactivity against him. Moicano is a wizard on the mat, but Beneil has a very tricky ground game. If Renato makes a mistake or leaves a limb exposed, Dariush can capitalize.
Dariush doesn't have a knockout win since August 2020, so Moicano should be able to handle anything coming back his way in the stand-up.
I've admittedly never been a big Moicano backer, but the price here seems quite fair. Dariush is getting up there in age and trending in the wrong direction. The time away is a big concern. I think the narrative around this fight would be different if Moicano wasn't obliterated by Makhachev. I don't hold that against him.
THE PICK: Moicano
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott (9-1-0) v. Felipe Lima (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Talbott ($7,500), Lima ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Talbott (+165), Lima (-195)
Widely viewed as one of the top overall prospects in the sport, Talbott saw his stock come crashing down in a unanimous decision defeat to Raoni Barcelos in January in which he entered as a massive favorite. Talbott is just 26 years of age, and it was just his 10th pro fight, so perhaps the fact he had a bump in the road shouldn't come as much of a surprise, but the bigger concern is how the loss played out. More on that in a moment.
Lima joined the UFC almost exactly a year ago following a stellar run in multiple organizations. He's looked the part to date, submitting Muhammadjon Naimov in his company debut and then taking a unanimous decision from Miles Johns in December. The early returns have been positive, although Talbott represents a stiff test.
Talbott is a highly creative striker. He's displayed a ton of power early in his career and his big for the bantamweight division at 5-foot-10. That's the good news. The bad news, as we found out in the Barcelos fight, is that he apparently can't wrestle.
Barcelos landed 8-of-15 takedown attempts that evening, good for 9:43 worth of control time. He simply closed the gap between him and Talbott and stuck to him like glue. Payton had zero answers. Every other opponent moving forward is going to employ a similar game plan, even if they don't possess the grappling skills of Barcelos, which few do.
Lima has landed three takedowns in his two UFC bouts. He got Johns to the mat twice and Naimov once. He's giving up four inches in height and two inches in reach to Talbott, so engaging in a kickboxing match from distance isn't an option. I expect a grappling-oriented attack from the Brazilian.
This fight is going to tell us a lot about Talbott's potential moving forward. Okay, he lost to Barcelos and looked bad doing it. But he's clearly an above-average athlete with solid footwork. He's young enough to expect improvements on a fight-by-fight basis. Was he able to close up the hole? Or does this become an ongoing issue?
If it ends up being the latter, he's in trouble.
I'm torn here. On one hand, if Talbott couldn't defend a takedown in January, is he going to be all that improved in that area in June? On the other, he's obviously a quality athlete, and I assume that's all he's been doing in the gym since. If this fight had taken place at the end of 2024, what would the line have been?
I don't love it, and I could easily see it blowing up in overwhelming fashion, but I'll roll with Talbott making enough improvements in order to get back on track.
THE PICK: Talbott
OTHER BOUTS
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Hermansson ($7,400), Rodrigues ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Hermansson (+160), Rodrigues (-190)
THE PICK: Rodrigues
Featherweight
Hyder Amil (11-0-0) v. Jose Miguel Delgado (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Amil ($7,700), Delgado ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Amil (+150), Delgado (-180)
THE PICK: Delgado
Women's Strawweight
Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) v. Viviane Araujo (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Cortez ($8,900), Araujo ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Cortez (-225), Araujo (+185)
THE PICK: Cortez
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) v. Slava Borshchev (8-5-1)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($8,600), Borshchev ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (-180), Borshchev (+150)
THE PICK: Borshchev
Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas (10-3-0) v. Jackson McVey (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Dumas ($7,900), McVey ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Dumas (+140), McVey (-165)
THE PICK: McVey
Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz (8-1-0) v. Alvin Hines (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Diniz ($9,100), Hines ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Diniz (-300), Hines (+240)
THE PICK: Diniz
Welterweight
Niko Price (16-8-0, 2NC) v. Jacobe Smith (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Price ($6,300), Smith ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Price (+750), Smith (-1600)
THE PICK: Smith
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 317 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
