This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 295 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Dennis Buzukja (11-3-0) v. Jamall Emmers (19-7-0)
Dennis Buzukja - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
Jamall Emmers - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: I have not seen anything from Buzukja that suggests he can handle fights in the UFC. He is a solid striker, but that is about it. Emmers has the game to give Buzukja fits. I expect him to be the faster striker and level-change often for successful takedowns where he will have a considerable edge. Emmers makes a solid play for cash contests but may not score high enough for the optimal in GPP contests.
UFC 295 Pick: Emmers
Joshua Van (8-1-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-1-0)
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Kevin Borjas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a close striking match for as long as it lasts. Both fighters are capable of landing knockout shots. I would give Van the edge in the match due to having fought in the UFC already, and he will have the advantage on the mat. I would only play either fighter in GPP contests, as it could go either way.
UFC 295 Pick: Van
Kyung Ho Kang (19-9-0) v. John Castaneda (20-6-0)
Kyung Ho Kang - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Casteneda earned his third UFC victory in his most recent fight, winning on the judge's scorecards. After recording a first-round submission in his latest fight, Kang is riding a two-fight win streak. Casteneda likely has a slight edge on the feet, while Kang has a considerable edge on the mat. I expect Kang to come away with the win, making him a solid DFS play as a dog.
UFC 295 Pick: Kang
Jared Gordon (19-6-0) v. Mark Madsen (12-1-0)
Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 19 wins
Mark Madsen - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be a close but lower-scoring affair. Both guys are solid offensive wrestlers, and both have similar striking tendencies. I expect Gordon to be slightly ahead in volume if the ground game cancels out. I expect this to be one of the lesser-targeted fights for DFS, making it a good target for GPP contests.
UFC 295 Pick: Gordon
Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-0) v. Slava Borshchev (7-3-0)
Nazim Sadykhov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Slava Borshchev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Sadykhov has won both of his UFC fights but has had his share of troubles in both. He will have a considerable edge on the mat in this one. Borshchev is 2-2 in the UFC but has struggled with takedown defense. In a striking match, Borshchev likely wins by knockout. However, I expect Sadykhov to shoot for takedowns and keep Borshchev compromised. The takedown potential is enough to play him in any contest.
UFC 295 Pick: Sadykhov
Tabatha Ricci (9-1-0) v. Lupita Godinez (11-3-0)
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: There is not a Baby Shark fight that I am not excited about. Ricci is on a run of four wins and looks better with each passing fight. Godinez is on a three-fight winning streak of her own and always looks great on a full camp. I expect this to be a fun fight, but for Ricci to be better everywhere. I would not be surprised to see another early submission from her.
UFC 295 Pick: Ricci
Steve Erceg (10-1-0) v. Alessandro Costa (13-3-0)
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Alessandro Costa - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Erceg looked impressive in his debut win on short notice. Though he lost his debut, Costa's second UFC fight was excellent, recording a knockout in the second round. This should be an exciting fight between the two youngsters. I expect Erceg to thrive with a full camp, so long as he avoids the knockout blow from Costa.
UFC 295 Pick: Erceg
Pat Sabatini (18-4-0) v. Diego Lopes 22-6-0)
Pat Sabatini - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the hardest fights to predict this week. Sabatini has an impressive UFC resume, having won five of six and being dominant in all those wins. Lopes is 1-1 in the UFC, the loss being against one of the best in the division and the win being against someone coming back after two years off. Everything should be close, but I expect Sabatini to pull through. He has never been submitted, and much of this fight should occur on the mat.
UFC 295 Pick: Sabatini
Matt Frevola (11-3-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (12-1-0)
Matt Frevola - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Benoit Saint-Denis - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters will be highly-owned in contests for DFS. Frevola continues to shine as a dog with his full power on display, and Saint-Denis has arguably been one of the best UFC fighters on his four-fight win streak. Both guys will have their chances, but I expect Saint-Denis to continue winning, and he is one of my favorite plays for DFS.
UFC 295 Pick: Saint-Denis
Jessica Andrade (24-12-0) v. Mackenzie Dern (13-3-0)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
Mackenzie Dern - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Andrade's on a three-fight losing streak and has looked considerably worse with each fight. On the other hand, Dern, known for her BJJ, showed off her striking in a match against an excellent striker. I expect Andrade to keep it close until Dern figures her movements out, and it will then to go downhill from there. Dern should add another submission loss to Andrade's record.
UFC 295 Pick: Dern
Sergei Pavlovich (18-1-0) v. Tom Aspinall (13-3-0)
Sergei Pavlovich - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 84" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 18 wins
Tom Aspinall - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be one of the most entertaining fights on the card, and it should end in the first. Aspinall will have the edge on the mat if he can take it there. However, I expect Pavlovich to continue his streak of knockouts and put Aspinall out early. The winner of this match will likely make the optimal lineup, so pick one and roll with them.
UFC 295 Pick: Pavlovich
Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) v. Alex Pereira (8-2-0)
Jiri Prochazka - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 29 wins
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: A lot of this fight comes down to the health of Prochazka. He was medically cleared, but a shoulder injury can have lingering issues. Pereira got himself back in the win column last time out, though it likely should have gone the other way. The two light heavyweights are fighting for the vacant belt, so expect fireworks. I expect Pereira to come out on top, but Prochazka has some of the craziest strikes in the game and can never be counted out.
UFC 295 Pick: Pereira
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 295 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
Kentucky officially launched sports betting on September 28. UFC fans in the Bluegrass State can stay up to date on the latest Kentucky sports betting promos at all Kentucky sportsbooks here at RotoWire. The BetMGM Kentucky bonus code gets new customers a generous welcome offer.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
