MLB Barometer: First-Half Risers & Fallers

This column is typically focused on players who have not only performed better or worse recently but those who have done so in seemingly sustainable ways due to changes in their underlying skillset. A few times per season, however, I like to look at the players whose actual fantasy value has diverged most from draft-day expectations. These two groups are obviously closely linked, but the latter will include players who have performed better or worse in categories that involve more things outside a player's direct control, such as wins, runs or RBIs.

I last did this exercise at the start of May, highlighting players who most over-performed and underperformed in April relative to their average draft position. It's time for another update given that we reached the halfway point in the season. In April, I looked at the top risers and fallers at each position. This time, we'll go round by round (or by group of rounds), discussing players whose earned auction value rankings in the first half of the season differ the most from their preseason NFBC average draft position. That gives us a lot more groups to go through, so I'll be splitting the analysis over two weeks, covering the first seven rounds this week and the rest of the draft next week.

These half-season ranks are given through Friday's games, at which point teams had played an average of 81 games, though the stats listed are accurate through Sunday. I skipped players who have fallen because they've missed half the season due to injury, to capture performance changes rather than merely recreate the injured list. 

RISERS

ROUND 1

Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It's hard to truly rise when you're already at the top, as you can see in the table, which shows that only one first-round pick actually improved his draft position. Turner technically didn't rise but stands out as one of the top picks of the first round merely by holding his value. In draft season, Turner typically followed a group of seven that included three elite all-around hitters (Tatis, Acuna and Mookie Betts), two even better bats with less speed (Mike Trout and Juan Soto) and two aces (deGrom and Gerrit Cole). It made sense to consider Turner slightly below the rest of those top hitters, as he averaged a modest 21.2 homers per 162 games through the end of the 2019 season. While he did hit 12 in last year's shortened season, it seemed reasonable to not go all in. He hasn't fallen too far off that pace this season, though, hitting 14 in 78 games. That's still a tier below the 26 and 23 that Tatis and Acuna have managed, respectively, but he's now averaged 30.7 per 162 games the last two years, so he's at least closing the gap and looks like a true all-around force.

ROUND 2

Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals: As with the first round, it's awfully difficult to rise when you're selected this high, but Scherzer has impressed simply by not disappointing. He's been clearly one of the top pitchers in the league for years now, but it's unsurprising that he slipped to ninth in ADP among pitchers during draft season given that he'll turn 37 later this month and was coming off a year in which his ERA jumped to 3.74, his highest since 2012. He's been as good as ever in the first half, though, and has leapfrogged every pitcher drafted ahead of him outside of Jacob deGrom in earned auction value. His 2.10 ERA is a career low, and he's backed it up with a career-high 35.5 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 5.9 percent walk rate. A career-low 30.8 percent groundball rate raises the fear that there could be a few damaging multi-homer games coming in the second half, but that's just about the only negative in his statline, especially as he doesn't seem to have lost any effectiveness following the sticky-stuff crackdown.

Round 3

Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals: I have to admit to being fairly nervous about Merrifield heading into the year. He's never had much more than modest power, so his value was always going to have to come from steals and batting average. The latter is a typically volatile category, and the former is hard to rely on from a player in his 30s, especially one who stole a fine but forgettable 20 bases in his most recent full season. There was apparently no reason to fear in that regard, as he's already surpassed that with 23 in 83 games, five more than anyone in the league. Some of that may come from being a Royal, as the team has attempted the third-most steals this season, but he also doesn't appear to have lost any speed despite his age. He's actually gone up slightly in sprint speed the last three years, going from the 86th percentile in 2019 to the 89th percentile last season and the 92nd this year.

ROUNDS 4-5

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: These rounds were evidently full of landmines, with only four players improving their draft position. Vlad Jr. has already featured multiple times in this column, but it's worth looking at what Judge has been up to. There were never any doubts about his power, and that's been as advertised yet again. Nineteen homers is a very respectable total, but he could hit even more in the second half given that he is second in average exit velocity (96.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (57.7 percent). Not only has the quality of his contact been as good as ever, he's also making more of it than ever, as his 25.8 percent strikeout rate is a career low. Judge with more contact is quite an exciting player, especially if he can stay healthy, as he's done this year. 

ROUNDS 6-7

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds: These rounds have featured four first-round values to date, but it's Castellanos who's been the best. He's making more contact than ever, striking out just 20.9 percent of the time en route to a .339 batting average that trails only Michael Brantley among qualified hitters. He hasn't sacrificed any power to get there, either. His career-high .587 slugging percentage is supported by career highs in xSLG (.566) and hard-hit rate (48.8 percent). He clearly enjoys hitting at Great American Ball Park, as his 16 homers this year (14 of which have come at home) mean he now has 30 in 138 games over the last two seasons, well above his pace of 18.7 percent per 138 games over his first seven years in the majors. Assuming he maintains a similar level of performance down the stretch, he could be in the mix for a spot in the back of the first round during next year's draft season.

FALLERS

ROUND 1

Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers: I'd been wanting to give Yelich a bit more time since his return from his latest trip to the injured list with back issues, but it's clear by now that all is not well with the 2018 NL MVP. His career-high 21.3 percent walk rate has kept him from losing as much value in OBP leagues, but that's about where the positives end. Most worrisome for Yelich is that his contact issues that emerged suddenly last season haven't gone away. While his 27.5 percent strikeout rate this season is at least better than his 30.8 percent mark from last year, it's far worse than the 20.6 percent strikeout rate he maintained his first seven years in the league. Making considerably less frequent contact is bad enough on its own, but it's even worse when combined with the fact that he's also making far worse contact than normal. He drove the ball into the ground far too frequently early in his career but reached an entirely new level when he started hitting more balls in the air, topping out at an 11.5 degree average launch angle in 2019, the year he hit 44 homers. He's homered just five times in 52 games this season, which comes as hardly a surprise given that his launch angle has cratered to 2.5 degrees.

ROUND 2

Luis Castillo, SP, Reds: Castillo easily has been the most high-profile bust this season, and while he's pitching better lately, he's still well below the expectations he came with during draft season. It wasn't hard to buy in over winter, as no other qualified starter who struck out at least 30 percent of batters also generated a groundball rate of at least 50 percent; Castillo's was all the way up at 58.4 percent, trailing only Framber Valdez. His 2021 campaign couldn't have started much worse, as he gave up 10 runs on Opening Day against the Cardinals. He finished April with a 6.29 ERA and had an even worse 8.04 ERA in May. While he does own a far better 2.13 ERA since the start of June, even that stretch comes with somewhat disappointing peripherals, as a pitcher with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and 9.9 percent walk rate is certainly productive but not second-round material. 

ROUND 3

Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell is Castillo's top competition for the title of most disappointing supposed ace. There was some thought this offseason that moving from Tampa Bay to San Diego would allow him to pitch deeper into games, but he's spent the year making the case that Kevin Cash's infamous decision to pull him from Game 6 of last year's World Series was in fact correct. Snell averaged 4.5 innings per start last season but is down to 4.4 innings per start this year. That might be due less to the third-time-through-the-order penalty and more due to general ineffectiveness, however. He has a 6.00 ERA this year when facing hitters for the third time, though his 4.98 ERA the first time through the order and his 4.67 ERA the second time through aren't good, either. Control has been his primary problem, as his walk rate has spiked to a career-high 13.8 percent, leading to a 1.55 WHIP that's done plenty of damage to fantasy teams. His 29.2 percent strikeout rate is down a bit from his peak but still strong, which keeps him valuable in at least one area and gives reason for optimism, but he needs a significant improvement in his walk rate to come close to preseason expectations.

ROUNDS 4-5

Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: The magnitude of Conforto's drop is certainly attributable partially to the hamstring injury that has limited him to 46 games this season, but he hasn't come close to living up to expectations when available. Those expectations may have been a bit high coming into the year, as his .322/.412/.515 line last season was clearly inflated by a .412 BABIP, but a drop to his current .204/.341/.293 line was far more than anticipated. He's at least seeing the ball well, as his 14.0 percent walk rate is a career high while his 22.9 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since his rookie campaign in 2015, but the quality of his contact has clearly diminished. A .264 xBA and .444 xSLG indicate he's gotten rather unlucky, but even matching those numbers the rest of the way would leave him as something of a disappointment. Things have only gotten worse for him since he's returned from the injured list, as he's hitting .118/.295/.147 in 12 games while striking out 31.8 percent of the time, so there's no indication that a turnaround is imminent.

ROUNDS 6-7

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies: From 2016 through 2019, Blackmon was an excellent hitter whose fantasy value was boosted into elite territory by the fact that he called Coors Field home. He hit .315 over that stretch while averaging 31.8 homers and 11.3 steals. He already showed signs of decline last season, managing just six homers and two steals while his wRC+ dipped below 100 for the first time in six years. If you thought that was due to the fact that he was 33, you may have been completely out on him this winter, but plenty of drafters evidently chalked up much of his struggles as a short-season fluke. His performance in the first half of this year suggests aging is the primary factor, however. He's homered just four times and hasn't attempted a single steal, while his batting average has dipped to .256. His batting average could rebound in the second half, as he has a much better .288 xBA, but the power may be gone for good, as his 8.2-degree average launch angle is well below his 14.0-degree mark from the previous six seasons. He may be little more than an empty batting average guy at this stage of his career, which you can find with players like his unheralded teammate Yonathan Daza. That's not the sort of hitter you hoped to draft in the sixth round.