This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:
- RotoWire's weekly projections
- RW weekly composite rankings
- RW Betting odds
- RW Target share page
- RW Snap count page
- RW Defense vs. Position stats
- RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
- Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
- Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
- Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
- Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players who are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.
- Tom Brady at DET
52% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN
Fantasy managers who stuck with Brady throughout an up-and-down season get a nice reward in the form of playoff trips to Atlanta and Detroit. The 43-year-old rebounded from a poor first half to finish with 390 yards and two TDs in a win over the Falcons last week and should provide similar numbers — let's say 300 and three — Saturday afternoon in Detroit. The Lions' defense might be the worst in the NFL, ranking 32nd in DVOA