The UFC card in Abu Dhabi will likely come as a pleasant surprise to both fans and those in the gambling community, as we will be treated to a solid slate of 13 fights with a few clear dynamics for those looking to turn a profit. We will break down each bout across three platforms, including a speedy veteran looking to dispel a myth and a jiujitsu ace who is trying to get her career back on track. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Cory Sandhagen is the kind of fighter who can look like an experienced wrestler against lesser grapplers, but we have seen him struggle with dedicated takedown threats in the past. While his movement and length may create problems initially, Sandhagen does tend to stand heavy on his lead leg, which will likely result in Umar repeatedly snatching single-leg takedowns. Nurmagomedov needs to be seen as a bargain at this price over five rounds, as he has never scored less than 105 points in any of his three-round affairs.
Mackenzie Dern ($8,200)
Like Sandhagen, Lupita Godinez can bully an opponent on the ground in the right matchup. As we saw in her fight with Virna Jandiroba, however, top-level grapplers can completely nullify her game. Dern has been somewhat exposed by agile and powerful strikers in recent years, but Godinez does not fit into either of those categories. This likely means that Dern will be able to bully her way into the clinch before getting this fight to the ground.
Deiveson Figueiredo ($8,400)
Marlon Vera has had issues with slow starts throughout his career. This has predictably gotten worse with age, as "Chito" now seems to routinely lose matches simply by not doing enough. Figueiredo has found a nice home at bantamweight, as he can compete in terms of strength while carrying over a noticeable speed advantage. The former flyweight champion should be able to win this fight wherever it goes, as we have seen Vera get stuck on his back for extended periods of time.
Azamat Murzakanov ($8,700)
Murzakanov is one of the few grapplers in the heavier weight classes who can hold his own on the feet. He has a crisp jab, can throw in combination, and is far more agile than he looks. Alonzo Menifield looked to be putting some things together before rushing headlong into a knockout blow against Carlos Ulberg, but even at his best, I don't think the combination of a stinging jab to keep range and strong wrestling from an opponent would equate to a favorable matchup.
Guram Kutateladze ($8,800)
Kutateladze has had a strange UFC tenure, beating a man some consider to be the next title contender in Mateusz Gamrot in his debut before dropping his next two fights. He shouldn't have much of an issue with Jordan Vucenic, a slick striker whose method of takedown defense seems to be trying to wrap up a submission. While that may work on the regional scene, I doubt it will be effective against a high-level grappler like Kutateladze. This should lead to time ample time spent in top position and a potential submission victory.
Viktoriia Dudakova ($8,500)
Both Dudakova and Sam Hughes can take over a fight with grappling, but Dudakova is far more active and should simply be able to overwhelm "Sampage," controlling the fight from the opening bell. While Hughes is strong for the weight class, it will likely take more than strength to have the kind of fight she wants, as Dudakova is clearly the more fluid striker here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Jai Herbert OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Shamil Gaziev UNDER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and Mohammad Yahya UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes
Given Rolando Bedoya's incredible activity level and toughness, I can only assume this strike total is based on the fact that Herbert spent the majority of his fight with Fares Ziam trying to initiate clinch situations. I doubt the "Black Country Banger" will employ a similar strategy here, as Bedoya is not the same kind of technical kickboxer as Ziam. He will also enter this fight at a two-inch height disadvantage. This should make Herbert comfortable sitting behind his jab to set up combinations.
Gaziev is your typical grind-em-out heavyweight wrestler who will throw big, single strikes, but never looks comfortable standing at range. We saw this in his five-round bout with Jair Rozenstruik, in which he landed just 22 (!) significant strikes before the fight was stopped at the end of the fourth frame. Don'Tale Mayes may not have the polish of a striker like Jair, but he will have an incredible speed advantage, which should prevent Gaziev from letting his hands go to an even greater degree.
I picked Yahya in his debut against Trevor Peek because I thought an extreme counterpuncher and grappler would fare well against Peek's particular brand of unchecked aggression. Against a big puncher who is a bit more refined, I expect him to be even more cautious. Kaue Fernandes will likely put Yahya on the back foot and keep him there, resulting in very few strikes from the 30-year-old while he looks for grappling exchanges.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Sedriques Dumas UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, Joel Alvarez UNDER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Michael Chiesa OVER 13.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Denis Tiuliulin has never had a fight make it out of the second round in five UFC bouts. Dumas has fought strong grapplers almost exclusively in his UFC career, so "The Reaper" will likely relish the opportunity to get back to his kickboxing here. I am not sure either of these men knows what it means to be defensively responsible, making a quick finish all but inevitable.
Joel Alvarez stands so upright in the pocket that it's a wonder he doesn't have more knockout losses on his record. We can credit this to an incredible ability to find submissions off his back, but Elves Brener was able to hang on the ground with an incredibly strong grappler in Myktybek Orolbai and has never been submitted in 20 professional fights. This likely means that Brenner will force his opponent to swing big at range, which will likely result in someone going to sleep.
There's a lot that can be said about the diminished capacity of Tony Ferguson, but the former Interim lightweight champion is still tough, having gone to a decision with another strong grappler in Paddy Pimblett and only being put to sleep by King Green in the waning seconds of their bout. The flipside here is that Chiesa seems to always find a way to get himself submitted in scrambles, but the strength advantage should be undeniable in this one, making it difficult for Tony to get started from bottom position.
Bets to Consider
Michal Oleksiejczuk Wins via KO/TKO (+500)
I am as enamored with the quickness and power of Shara Magomedov as anyone, but I'm not sure that directly translates to winning fights. For starters, "Bullet" is incredibly hittable in front of the right opponent, as we saw when Bruno Silva landed a whopping 71 percent of his significant strikes thrown. "Hussar" should be able to match Magomedov for speed and I don't think creativity will be enough to overcome a 27-fight veteran whose only knockout loss came nearly a decade ago.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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