Saturday's 13-fight slate may lack star power, but a card with this many closely-lined bouts can mean big opportunity if played correctly. We'll look at each contest across three platforms, including a tireless grappler looking to do what he does best and a French fighter looking to represent the sport for his country. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Damon Jackson ($7,500)
The width of this line surprises me, as I would've thought watching Billy Quarantillo grind down Alexander Hernandez for a second-round KO/TKO would create the perfect blueprint for Jackson. While he may not have the athleticism, "The Leech" will do just what his name implies: stay close to his opponent and sap his gas tank. Hernandez will have his usual athleticism advantage, but above-average power won't be enough if this fight makes it to Round 2.
Valter Walker ($9,400)
Walker can charitably be called a chaotic grappler, but it may be more accurate to say he rushes to grab a clinch by any means necessary. The "Clean Monster" shows some impressive techniques while in the top position, which help him control his opposition. Lukasz Brzeski plays the exact wrong game for a heavyweight, absorbing punishment while attempting to outlast his opponents. This, combined with a 42 percent takedown defense, should send him on the path to his fourth consecutive loss.
Cesar Almeida ($7,700)
Dylan Budka comes into this matchup with a wrestling pedigree, but it's hard to be impressed with his win on the Contender Series, where he showed extreme passivity and scored just two of seven takedown attempts. That may be more success than his opponent had, but Chad Hanekom got so deep on attempts that a better wrestler would surely have taken advantage. Expect Almeida to march Budka down and get ahead via work rate while using his strength advantage to bring this fight to the ground when necessary.
Jean Matsumoto ($8,800)
Matsumoto promises to be a fun addition to the bantamweight division. The Brazilian fighter will relentlessly pressure opponents, firing stinging calf kicks and looking for takedowns. With the exception of the kicking game, Dan Argueta will employ a similar strategy, but the speed advantage will be so noticeable here that it's likely going to be difficult for "The Determined" to find his way into range.
Victor Hugo ($)
It's not often we get a replacement just a few days out from an event, but that's the case after Heili Alateng was pulled from this bout for unknown reasons. Hugo is a wild puncher who keeps his hands down in the pocket, as his primary goal is to get fighters to the ground to unleash a bag of tricks that has led to 10 submission victories in professional MMA. This could lead to some interesting scrambles on the ground, as Pedro Falcao has showcased quick transitions, but there is no reason to think he will be able to keep pace in those exchanges on such short notice.
Norma Dumont ($8,600)
It's difficult to say why we are getting Germaine de Randamie back in the cage after a nearly four-year absence, but that fact alone makes it difficult to pick her against an active and successful fighter in Dumont. While she is likely still the best pure striker in the division, I doubt "The Iron Lady" will be prepared for the smothering attack of Dumont, who has always been big for the weight class and will press that physicality in the clinch. De Randamie has been known to get tired in extended battles, so I'm not expecting fantastic cardio from a fighter who will soon turn 40 years old.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Melissa Dixon OVER 47.5 Significant strikes, Piera Rodriguez UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes, and Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes
Given the low strike total here, it seems the linesmakers think that this will either be a grapple-heavy fight or someone will nap early. I find both of these scenarios unlikely, as Dixon used her jab to land 23 significant strikes in the first round of her UFC debut against Irina Alekseeva before "Russian Ronda" began forcing grappling exchanges. There should be none of that here due to the fact that Nora Cornolle is a Muay Thai specialist. Cornolle has been a finisher on the regional scene, but she was unable to stop Joselyne Edwards, which doesn't inspire much confidence that she will find consistent stoppages at this level.
Reviewing our next fight gave me unwanted flashbacks to Cynthia Calvillo's bout against Pearl Gonzalez, when "The Chi-Town princess" tried continuously to take down the superior grappler, leading to both being stuck on the cage for the better part of 15 minutes. Calvillio has leaned heavily into her boxing lately, making Rodriguez the committed grappler in this matchup. I predict a slow-developing fight that stays below this line, which should compensate for the lack of action here.
The logic baked into the line between Bahamondes and Christos Giagos seems to be that Giagos has no choice but to wrestle. Be that as it may, the Chilean has obliterated this total in four of his five UFC fights, and he missed this mark in his last contest by less than seven strikes. Giagos is a grappler by trade, but he is not shy about trying to box and lean on his power, particularly early in fights. This should leave enough room for Bahamondes to pile up significant strikes, even if he is forced into grappling exchanges later.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Alex Morono OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Charlie Campbell OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Brendan Allen UNDER 14.75 Minutes of Fight Time
We kick off this section with another confusing line. Neither Morono nor Court McGee are prolific finishers, and both are legendarily tough, having been finished just six times in a combined 65 professional MMA fights. Both are capable of landing a knockout punch, but the data clearly favors a decision here, making this a nice prop to put in parlays.
Trevor Peek caught the attention of the MMA world by being a whirlwind finisher on the regional scene, but I just don't see that materializing against skilled opponents, as it's too easy to see his shots coming. He will land his wild strikes and could even throw in a takedown or two, but Campbell is a good judge of distance and should be able to keep himself safe from the tidal wave.
At first glance, it would seem that Allen not being able to get this fight to the ground will put a damper on the likelihood of a finish, but he will force action on Chris Curtis from the opening bell, leading to some heavy exchanges over five rounds. This means plenty of opportunities for one man to run onto a shot, and we can't completely discount Allen grounding his opponent despite the fact that he could not do so the first time these two met in 2021.
Bets to Consider
Morgan Charriere wins via KO/TKO (+325)
Charriere has the kind of speed, power, and variety of attacks that can make him a dangerous finisher, and three consecutive knockouts may indicate that he is coming into his own. Jose Mariscal has had to put his toughness on display far too often for me to bet that he can survive against such an explosive striker, as this is another fight where the gulf in athleticism will be plain to see.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Vegas 90 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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